Kontribusi IPTEK bagi
Pembangunan Daya Saing
di Indonesia
Disampaikan pada
Diskusi Terbatas “ Peningkatan Kapasitas
Program Riset Untuk mendukung Daya Saing”
Menristek, 09 Juni 2009
Triarko Nurlambang
Pusat Penelitian Geografi Terapan - FMIPA
UNIVERSITAS INDONESIA
NEGARA-NEGARA LAIN
SUDAH BERGERAK CEPAT;
INDONESIA DIMANA?................
Looking back at tomorrow
(Learning from the Future)
Strategy
Today’s
business
control Core
Processes
Georg Berner
SIEMENS
2004
Today
Scenario Application fields Spheres of lives Trends
H
u
m
a
n
Health
General society
• Society
• Politics
• Economy
• Environment
• Customers
• Competition
Leisure
Education
N
e
e
d
s
Technology
• Semi-conductors
• Biotechnology
•Disruptive
Environment
Military
short-term mid-term
Long-term
The way we look at things
Future
Munculnya pola
kehidupan yang
baru
Waktu luang dan
hiburan
Pembelajaran
KEHIDUPAN BARU
• Faktor pendorong masa
depan: keamanan &
kesehatan
Aplikasi
kepercayaan, penghematan biayawaktu, bertambahnya kenyamanan,
dan perbaikan kualitas hidup
• Faktor penghambat:
kompleksitas, tiadanya standard
dan layanan buruk
Proteksi
lingkungan
Militer
• Faktor pengubah: teknologi
Georg Berner
SIEMENS
2004
Cara baru
menjalankan
bisnis
Bisnis elektronik
Manajemen kesehatan
Jasa perbaikan
Jasa dokter
Dunia Maya/ virtual
Model baru sekolah
Pelatihan individual
Pelatihan profesional
Monitoring Lingkungan hidup
Rancang produk
Eksplorasi
Proses material
Recyclability
Lingkungan dan perang
Prosesi informasi
Pelatihan
Pakaian seragam
Fungsi konsep strategi
Portal sbg gerbang dunia
E-customer bonding
E-business di industri
Pengganti lokasi pasar
Real Time Business
Mobile business
Internet dalam peralatan mobil
MMS
Pembayaran elektronik
Permintaan pelanggan
Bioteknologi: ladang masa depan
Mesin/kompo
nen
Kesehatan
Biokomputer
Diagnostik
Androids (humanoid
robots)
Healing
Cyborgs (manusia
dengan teknologi
implan)
Manusiamesin
Pembelajaran
Komunikasi
Gaya hidup (kosmetik,
peremajaan)
Pengembangan
kemampuan indra
Pengembangan
kemampuan daya pikir
Biorobots
Bioteknologi
Peralatan
Teknologi sensor (RFID)
Georg Berner
SIEMENS
2004
Lingkungan
Pemurnian
Recycling
Environmental
compatibity
Sustainability
Pemulihan
kerusakan
Produksi
Energi
Hidrogen,
metanol
Material/kimiawi
Pangan
Bahan dasar/ bahan
subtitusi
Energi fosil
Tumbuhan
Recyclability
Cahaya
Ternak
Obat-obatan (medikasi,
implan, penggantian
organ)
Kondratieff Cycle
TODAY
1st wave
2nd wave
Stream
engine
1793
Global
network
Driving
Application
Driving
technology
Railroads
steel
1847
1893
3rd wave
4th wave
5th wave
Electricity
Automobiles
Information
chemistry
Electronics
1930
1989
Internet, computer information and communication network
Knowledge and protocol networks telematics
Electronic mobile and real-time business services, edutainment, healthy work,
commence environment
Broadband transmission and personal mobile application
?
2040
Penetrasi pasar di Amerika Serikat oleh
Teknologi Informasi dan Komunikasi
Angka dalam kurung adalah waktu
yang diperlukan untuk mencapai 50
juta pelanggan
dalam juta
pelanggan di AS
120
100
TV set
(15 thn)
80
Internet (5
thn)
60
40
Radio
(40 thn)
20
Telepon
(90 thn)
TV kabel
(10 thn)
Komputer
(13 thn)
0
HP (11 thn)
1922
1950
1980
1995
Internet
Nirkabel (2
thn)
Apa saja faktor utama penggerak
perubahan masa depan?
• Pertumbuhan penduduk secara eksponensial
Georg Berner
SIEMENS
2004
• Speed of innovation (accelerating)  tren
teknologi dan (ICT, robotic/nano), ilmu
pengetahuan dasar (biologi/bio-tech, fisika-materi,
kimia)
 Batas industri dan penelitian-pengembangan (R
& D) menjadi tambah kabur
Beberapa contoh hasil prediksi masa depan
Berdasarkan studi J.R. Mooneyham
2006 Wireless LAN
2008 Nanocomputer elements
2010 Optical cards menggantikan floppy disk
2015 Mendengarkan musik 6 hari dalam satu chip
2035 Super-jumbo jets membawa 1500 penumpang
2038 NASA mengirim orang pertama ke Mars
2050 Bertamasya ke luar angkasa
2058 Implan otak buatan meningkatkan kemampuan intelijen
2064 Otak buatan terkoneksi dengan komputer
2073 Kota bawah tanah terbangun
2087 Ekosistem di re-boot
2088 Muncul banyak spesies baru
2150 Bermunculan non-biologis yang bisa berpikir
2300 Ada kuda diangkasa
2450 Ditemukan the “United State of Earth”
2500 Pemukiman baru di Mars
• Siklus Kondratieff yang menjelaskan siklus 60 tahunan atas dasar adanya perubahan radikal
dalam teknologi sehingga menciptakan satu bentuk kehidupan baru
• Tren ketenagakerjaan (dikembangkan oleh Leo A. Nefiodow) dimana sektor pertanian akan
mengalami kemunduran dan sektor jasa menjadi semakin utama
• Tren teknologi yang dikembangkan oleh Gartner (Hype Cycle) dan Moore (Moore’s Lawn 
perkembang microelectronics; dunia menjadi terkonvergensi dan siklus perubahan semakin
pendek
Building Block of the 21st Century
Reliability
Humaneness
Medical Science
Sustainability
Network
Components
DNA
Robotics
Building Blocks of
the 21st Century
Atoms
Bandwi
dth
Software
Bits
Materials
Nanotechnology
Computing
Information
Safety
Security
Communication
Biotechnology
People – Situation – Innovation - Productivity
People
Freedom and
security
Commitment and
hard work
Responsibility for
self and others
Environment
and nature
Training and further
training
Taxes and
charges
Leadership and
coaching
Laws and
regulation
Resources
and stability
Location and
infrastructure
Implementation of
own vision
Prosperity and
further
development
Effectiveness and
efficiency
Processes and their
contents
Technology and
products
Applications
and services
Research and
development
Creativity and
performance
Innovation
Productivity
Situation
Team
Infrastructure and
external network
BAGAIMANA MENGEJAR
KETERTINGGALAN?
BAGAIMANA ARAH DAN
STRATEGI NYA? …………
Indonesia
The IMD World Competitiveness Yearbook 2008
Knowledge creation
Continuous innovation
Competitive advantage
Dasar Kompetisi
P
E
R
DAYA
SAING
OTAK
ORGANISASI
YANG CERDAS
M
I
INOVASI
ORGANISASI
YANG INOVATIF
N
T
A
ORGANISASI YANG FLEKSIBEL
PILIHAN
FLEXIBLE
COMPANY
A
N
KUALITAS
ORGANISASI YANG
QUALITY
COMPANY
BERKUALITAS
P
A
S
ORGANISASI YANG
EFFICIENT
EFISIEN
COMPANY
BIAYA
A
R
TAHUN
60-an
70-an
80-an
90-an
2000 - an
The Technology Roadmapping Phases
In most cases, strategies attempt to achieve these goals either
by mobilizing the necessary local resources or by removing
barriers to HTD (High Tech Dev.).
The emphasis of the resulting initiatives falls into six
general categories:
a. Research, development, and technology transfer;
Perhaps the most fundamental initiatives are those that aim to
quicken the flow of innovation itself
b. Human capital;
Other initiatives focus on developing the human capital needed to
exploit these innovations. Two important secondary effects of
university/industry collaboration are improving science and
engineering training and providing continuing education for those
already employed by industry
c. entrepreneurship training and assistance;
A special subset of human capital is entrepreneurship, and many
initiatives by both universities and private sector groups , those who
create new technology-based companies
d. financial capital;
Many universities have also begun to invest in technology-based
spinoffs, either directly or through seed capital funds and venture
capital partnerships
e. physical capital;
Local governments often seek to encourage HTD through changes in
land use and zoning, as well as the provision of public services and
facilities. Incubator facilities, which provide low-cost office and
laboratory space for entrepreneurs and struggling firms, are one form
that this type of initiative can take ; and
f. information gathering and dissemination.
Source: OTA, 1984
The first step in almost any State high-technology strategy is the
creation or local of a task force or commission, usually with university
and private sector participation.
Additional Factors increase
the odds of success for State
and local HTD initiatives
• identifying local needs and resources;
• adapting to external constraints;
• linkage with broader development efforts;
• local initiative and partnership (triple Helix)
; and
• sustained effort, often over a period of
decades.
CLUMPS OR INNOVATIVE CLUSTERS ?
Many of the clusters we have worked in around the world are more clumps than innovative systems. The
businesses are located together but there is limited interaction between the component parts of the cluster and
limited interaction between the organisations that comprise the cluster component.
Clumps have an
absence of social
capital (the investment
in building personal
relationships) and this
leads to a lack of trust.
This leads to an
underperforming
cluster as there is
limited circulation of
tacit information and
limited development of
highly specialised
competencies.
How do we move from
clumps to innovative
clusters?
The essence of this approach in
nurturing competitiveness is to
remove the isolation of the
cluster’s individual stakeholders,
building them into an integrated
and holistic system.
•We place emphasis on the
development of a multiplicity of
linkages within the cluster’s
components, and between them;
•We foster the development of
linkages beyond the cluster;
•We facilitate the building of
whole-of-government support to
the core and support firms;
•We ensure broad ownership of
the cluster’s strategy and early
action, with private sector
leadership; We train facilitators,
based within the cluster, who
provide the necessary neutral corner
to bring together the cluster’s
stakeholders and establish the
forward agenda
NATIONAL INNOVATIVE
CAPACITY
National innovative capacity is defined as an economy’s potential, at a given point in time, for producing a
stream of commercially relevant innovations. This capacity depends in part on the technological sophistication
and labor force in a given economy, but also reflects the investments and policies of the government and
private sector that affect the incentives for and the productivity of a country’s R&D activities.
1.Common Innovation
Infrastructure
2.Cluster-Specific Innovation
Orientation
3.The Quality of Linkages
Cluster Development Process
Stages
1. Mustering Support
2. Building the Base
Steps
1. Introducing the relevance of a clustering approach
2. Identifying and prioritising local clusters
3. Initial cluster analysis
4. Building the leadership group
5.Establishing the preferred future
3. Creating Momentum
6. Identifying the stepping stones
7. Immediate action agenda
4. Extending the Base
8. Launching the clustering initiative
9. Formalising the cluster
10. Upgrading the strategic agenda
5. Sustaining Momentum
11. Process review
12. Linking the cluster
Nurturing clusters: Now a common focus
With over 50 countries having cluster development on their agendas, clustering has today become an accepted part of
economic development. The direction of these cluster programme comes from a range of perspectives:
•Addressing competitiveness & innovation;
•Business retention and expansion;
•SME development; export development;
•Skills & training;
•Building Triple Helix alignment…business, government and academia;
•Job creation; poverty alleviation;
•Engagement of disadvantaged communities;
•R&D, technology transfer, incubators, science parks.
Measuring Technology Achievement of Nations and
the Capacity to Participate in the Network Age
The challenge of rethinking development policies go beyond considering these
incremental changes, but to a historic shift from the industrial to the network age. Recent
breakthroughs in information communications technologies and biotechnologies have led
to transformations - technological advances are more rapid (e.g. doubling of computing
power every 18 months), more fundamental (e.g. breakthroughs in genetic engineering),
and more dramatically shifting costs (e.g. decline in cost of transmitting trillion bits of
information from US$150,000 to just 12 cents over the last 3 decades). The
developments in biotechnology and information telecommunications technology codify,
store, process and communicate information and knowledge. These advances have
structural and not just incremental impacts because they are pervasive inputs into almost
all human activities and so have pervasive impacts throughout the society. These
transformations are intertwined with economic globalization leading to a historic shift,
from the industrial to the network age. Production, research, and many other activities
are restructured into ‘networks’ of individuals and organizations specialized into niches
of expertise, with the costs of communications driven down to zero and geographical
boundaries falling
M. Desai, S. Fukuda-Parr, C. Johansson, and F. Sagasti2
Developing technological capacity
Not all countries need to be on the cutting age of global technological advance. But every country
needs the capacity to understand and adapt global technologies for local needs. It is often
mistakenly assumed that technology transfer and diffusion are relatively easy, that developing countries
can simply import and apply knowledge from outside by obtaining equipment, seeds and pills. But for
firms or farms to use a new technology—to identify its potential benefits, to learn it, adapt it and use it—
requires new skills and the ability to learn and develop new skills with ease (Lall, 2000).
Note: TAI measurment (please see attached file)
10 SARAN TENTANG PERAN PENTING PEMERINTAH
UNTUK PENINGKATAN DAYA SAING
(VIETOR, 2007)
1. The Place to start is basic property rights
2. Macro economic policies (the necessity of fiscal
probity; deficit control)
3. Saving and investment for economic growth
4. Strong central banks are necessary for
noninflationary growth
5. Microeconomic policies are also important
6. Labor market flexibility
7. Observation pertains to resource endowments
8. Corruption fighting
9. Minimizing Income inequality distribution
10.Reemphasizing the huge asymmetry that has
unfolded in the global economy’s current account
balances
Transformational
Needs of the region
Behaviours
Transformational
Potential of R&D-tech
Regional
Development
Transformative
Transformative
Use
Use of technology
Meanings
Outcomes
TRANSFORM’s approach
Regional Innovation
Culture
public sector
individuals
firms
24
What is “transformative”?
STEP2
STEP1
1st phase: Adopt Hi-Tech
2nd phase: Transform via HiTech
Exploiting the efficiency
potential of R&D – Hi-Tech
Exploiting the trans-formational
potential of R&D – Hi-Tech
Individuals
Firms
Public sector
automation, ICT, Bio-Tech, Nano-tech,,
etc.
network creation,
enabling learning & innovation,
participation & empowerment
R&D – HI-Tech d i f f u s i o n p r o c e s s
What is “transformative”?
• The Adoption Question: What have you got?
– Technology as asset (something that you have)
– Technology Adoption Model (technological determinism)
– Lots of quantitative research
– Uneven take up
• The Behavioural Question: What do you do with it?
– Technology as process (something that you do)
– Business Process Engineering (sociotechnical models)
– Some Quantitative research (some at regional level)
– Problems of execution in less favoured regions
• The Innovation Culture Question: What does it mean?
– Social Shaping/Construction of Technology
– Very little quantitative research (very little geography)
Peningkatan Social Capital Otomatis
Meningkatkan Kapasitas Creating Value
TWO TYPES OF KNOWLEDGE
Tacit Knowledge
(Subjective)
Knowledge of experience
(body)
Simultaneous knowledge
(here and now)
Analog knowledge
(practice)
Explicit Knowledge
(Objective)
Knowledge of rationality
(mind)
Sequential knowledge
(there and them)
Digital knowledge (theory)
Nonaka and Hirotaka, The Knowledge Creating Company, 1995
CONTENTS OF KNOWLEDGE CREATED BY
FOUR MODES
Tacit Knowledge
Tacit
Knowledge
from
Explicit
Knowledge
to
Explicit Knowledge
(Socialization)
(Externalization)
SYMPATHIZED
KNOWLEDGE
CONCEPTUAL
KNOWLEDGE
(Internalization)
(Combination)
OPERATIONAL
KNOWLEDGE
SYSTEMIC
KNOWLEDGE
Spiral of Organizational Knowledge Creation
Epistemological
dimension
Externalization
Explisit
knowledge
Combination
Socialization
Tacit
knowledge
Internalization
Individual
Group
Knowledge
level
Organization
InterOrganization
Epistemological
dimension
Five-Phase Model of the Organizational KnowledgeCreation Process
Enabling Condition
Interaction
Autonomy
Fluctuation/ Creative chaos
Redundancy
Requisite variety
Tacit knowledge in
organization
Socialization
Externalization
Sharing tacit
knowledge
Creating
concept
Explicit knowledge
in organization
Combination
Justifying
concept
Building an
Archetype
Crossleveling
knowledge
Internalization
Market
Tacit
From
knowledge
collaborating
organization
From users
Internalization by users
Explicit knowledge as
advertisements, patents,
product and/or services
PERAN IPTEK MEMBANGUN
KAPASITAS KEARIFAN LOKAL
SEBAGAI KOMPETENSI INTI
UNTUK BERSAING; ADAPTASI
KONSEP DAYA SAING
SAKASAKTI
Membangun Indonesia In-Corporate
Nasional
Regional
Perusahaan
Industri
Propinsi
Kabupaten
Satu Kabupaten Satu
Kompetensi Inti
SAKA SAKTI
Sektor
Ekonomi
Sistem Informasi Geografis
Fine tune
local
competency
Valuating its
industrial process
Valuating its
multiplier effect
Uji Syarat Unggulan:
1. Akses Pasar
2. Kontribusi Stakeholder
3. Barrier to Immitation
Value Chain
(main activities):
1. Inbound Logistics
2. Manufacturing
3. Outbound Logistics
Strategic Routing
1. Core industries
2. Augment Industries
Potensi dan Eksisting Sumberdaya
(analisis pemetaan aset regional)
(Analisa statistik deskriptif clustering)
Apa/ berapa/ dimana aset dan
per’produk’an utama (kompetensi inti)
Investigasi proses
industrialisasi mis. I-O model)
Expert Choise/scoring analysis
Investigasi business linkages and
Value Added
Expert Choice/ Scoring analysis +
EVA (Evaluation Value Added)
….. Slide berikutnya
Gap analysis (hasil penilaian VC&SR)
Valuating its
Capacity
Kajian kemungkinan
implementasi dan
rancangan
monitoring &
evaluasi
Implementasi
SAKASAKTI dengan
mengaktifasi Trading
House Daerah
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
POPIS
Physical Capital
Organization Capital
Power Capital
Intellectual Capital
Social Capital
Studi kelayakan
Recana Strategis dan
program
Monitoring dan
evaluasi
Implementing Trading
House
Business Plan and
regulating its operating
Expert choice/ scoring analysis
Scenario analysis
Teknik Deplhi
• IFA dan EFA
• Matching
• ESPQ
Good Corporate
Governance & Balance
Score Card approach;
inisiatif bisa dari pemda dan
kepemilikan terbuka
Sektor
Perdagangan
Sektor Terkait
Institusi
Pendukung
•Intermediate suppliers
•Capital good suppliers
•Producer services
•Consultants
•Contract R&D
•Similar technologies
•Share pool of labor
•Similar strategies
Konteks lokalitas; pemberdayaan
investasi dan peningkatan yang
terus menerus
Strategi, struktur
Perusahaan dan
Pesaing
•Education (univ, colleges)
•Training (cc’s)
•R&D (univ, fed labs)
•Development agencies
•Regulatory agencies
Industri-industri
pendukung dan terkait
Kondisi
Permintaan
Berupa Klaster
(bukan industri)
Pelanggan lokal
yang istimewa
dan sangat
menuntut
Kondisi Faktor
Kuantitas dan
kualitas faktor serta
biaya
Core
Activities
Primary
Activities
Entrepreneurship
Business domain . Strategic direction . Product(s)
Inbound
Logistics
Operations
Outbound
Logistics
Marketing
&
Sales
Service
Margin
Procurement
Human Resource Management
Support
Activities
Management Information System
R&D
Margin
Managerial Infrastructure
Activities
Base
Managerial Resources
Technology System/Techno-economic Paradigm
THE ROOT OF COMPETITIVENESS
Produk akhir
1
2
3
ATASE PERDAGANGAN
TRADING HOUSE
ITPC
BISNIS 1
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
ATASE PERDAGANGAN
TRADING HOUSE
ITPC
ATASE PERDAGANGAN
TRADING HOUSE
ITPC
ATASE PERDAGANGAN
TRADING HOUSE
ITPC
BISNIS 2
BISNIS 3
BISNIS 4
PRODUK INTI 1
PRODUK INTI 2
KOMPETENSI
KABUPATEN 1
KOMPETENSI
KABUPATEN 2
KOMPETENSI
KABUPATEN 3
KOMPETENSI
KABUPATEN 4
FAKTOR KUNCI
KEBERHASILAN
INDUSTRI
DAYA SAING
STRATEGI
KAPABILITAS ORGANISASI
COLLECTIVE LEARNING
KOMPETENSI
TANGIBLE
FISIK
KEUANGAN
INTANGIBLE
TEKNOLOGI
REPUTASI
SYARAT :
SDM
BUDAYA
KETRAMPILAN &
KOMUNIKASI &
PENGETAHUAN KHUSUS
INTERAKTIF
AKSES KE PASAR
TIDAK MUDAH DITIRU
KONTRIBUSI KE STAKE HOLDER
MOTIVASI
WINNING STRATEGIES THROUGH VALUE
CREATION
Competitive Strategy
Competitive Strategy
Competitive
Advantage
Competitive
Advantage
Distinctive
Competencies
Generic Strategy
Organizational
Capabilities
Competitive Position
Resource Available:
Tangibles, Intangibles, HR
Market Attractiveness
Resource Based Strategy
Market Based Strategy
Nilai Pasar
Model Pengembangan SAKASAKTI
Potensi
Kompetensi Inti
Daerah ??
Model Daya
Saing Daerah
Kebijakan
Strategis
In & dag
Tacit +
Explisit
Knowledge
Balitbangda
Kebijakan
Strategis
Pendidikan(Kompetensi
Lokal)- Institusi
Pendidikan
Forum Daya Saing Daerah
Proses
Inovasi
Produk
Produk Inti Daerah
dan turunannya
Balitbangda
Kebijakan
Strategis
KMNRT
Tacit +
Explisit
Knowledge
(local
genius)
Kebutuhan Pasar
Themes
On-the-job training
Tech. demo parks
Training programmes
Research
University courses
Short-term courses
Identification of best/good practices
Themes
Information management
Market research
Tech. transfer (offers / requests)
Information campaigns
Consumer education
Actors
NGO’s
Local Gov.
Private industry
Research Institutions
Universities
Research
Education
Training
Actors
Chamber of commerce
NGO’s
Local Gov.
Foreign Offices
Embassies
Business
Support
Services
Themes
Transportation
Supply of electricity / gas
Actors
Local Gov.
Private sector
Urban planners
Commercial banks
Multilateral institutions
Themes
Infrastructur
e Provision
FOSTERING
BUSINESS
PARTNERSHIPS
Special
incentives
Manufacturing
Subcontracting
Tax free / tax incentives
Land leases
Special industrial parks
Actors
Local Gov.
Commercial banks
Central bank
Financial Regulatory body
Legislation
Rules, etc.
Export processing zones
Themes
Actors
Contractual obligations
Private sector
Manufacturing process
Chambers of commerce
Actors
Raw materials
Local Government
Packaging
Private sector
Pre/post sales initiatives
Commercial banks
Financing
Themes
Tax incentives
Special loans
Low-interest loans
Microfinance
Subsidies and grant
Themes
Policy systems
Legislation, Acts
Standards, ISO provisions
Awards, fees, fines
Actors
Local government
Regional/National Gov.
Universities
Research Institutions
Farmasi
Daun
Pakan Ternak
Pangan Manusia
S
I
N
G
K
O
N
G
Etanol
Pangan
Charcoal
Kreasi/Bunga kering
Batang
Tepung Tape
Briquet
pangan
Papan Partikel
Pellet/Pakan
Ternak
Tepung Singkong
Kulit
Keripik
Pakar Ternak
Tepung
Roti Casabe
Meal Farina
Milk Makanan
Fou Fou African Dish
Agbelima
Hasil Olahan
Tapioka
Pearl/Flakes
Umbi
Tape Ketela
Gula
Daging
Gaplek
Pati Modifikasi
Pati
Teknologi
Baru Protein
(Protein Sel
Tunggal)
Fermentasi
Alkohol/
Etanol
Asam Sitrat
Asam Laktat
Glukosa
Fruktosa
Sukrosa
Maltosa Sirup
Monosodium
Glutamat
Kertas Adhesives
Urea Formaidehyde
Resin
Coadjuvant
Tepung Pasta
Aceto
Cyanohydri
C
n uk
Bahan Bakar
a
Motor
INDUSTRI AGRI TERINTEGRASI
Pupuk Kandang
Rotasi
KACANG
Daun & Buangan
Padat
Pupuk Kandang
Daun & Buangan Padat
POHON
SINGKONG
Buangan Padat
& Cair
Tepung Tulang &
Darah
IKAN GURAME
SAPI
Analisa Kompetensi Inti Daerah
?
?
?
?
?
kapasitas
ekspor
Fase 1
Fase 2
Fase 3
Fase 4
Fase 5
Direct
export
Sudah tua perlu
peremajaan dan
inovasi (Tahap
peremajaan) 
grant>= investasi
Korporat sudah
matang/ dewasa
(tahap dewasa)
grant>= investasi
Korporat sudah
mulai matang/
dewasa (tahap
remaja) grant>=
investasi
Indirect
export
?
Spin-off
A
FS
usul
B1
Internal Growth Strategy
• Expansion
• Diversification
B2
C
D
Tahap awal (startup) perlu banyak
bantuan
khususnya dari
pemerintah (tahap
“bayi-balita”) 
grant> investasi
External Growth Strategy
kapasitas produksi
• Expansion
- Merger
• Diversification
- Sub-contracting
• Joint Venture
Percent of Workforce
Dinamika Perubahan Global (Sectors
of the Economy)
Tertiary
Secondary
Quaternary
Primary
Time
Model Scenario Planning
Interpretasi 1
Scenario 1
Implikasi 1
Interpretasi 2
Scenario 2
Implikasi 2
Interpretasi 3
Scenario 3
Implikasi 3
Ketidakpastian
Pre-determined
(bisa diduga)
Kompetensi & strategi/ kebijakan
yang dibangun saat ini
?
Identifikasi isu pokok / kebijakan
Key forces dalam lingkungan lokal
Identifikasi
Potensi Daerah
Driving forces
Menilai urutan dari aspek pentingnya dan ketidakpastian
Studi Strategic
Routing
Menetapkan logika skenario
Mengkaji skenario terpilih
Implikasi strategi
Memilih indikator utama
Studi Value Chain
Menilai Kelayakan Model
Kompetensi Inti Daya
Saing Daerah
Masukan bagi skebario dari konsultan
Menyetujui rencana implementasi
Publikasi skenario
Kebijakan Penataan
Ulang (implementasi)
Terima Kasih
Dan
Semoga Bermanfaat