5th Annual IEEE Conference on Automation Science and Engineering Bangalore, India, August 22-25, 2009 Stability Considerations and Service Level Measures in Production Inventory Systems: a Simulation Study D. Bijulal, Jayendran Venkateswaran, and N. Hemachandra Abstract— This paper analyzes the ability of the general production-inventory replenishment policy to maintain desired level of service. Key control parameters that affect stability of the replenishment policy are the fractional rates of adjustments of discrepancies in WIP and inventory. The effect of these control parameters on the service level (order fill rate) of the production-inventory system which face independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) random demand is investigated. A replenishment policy that explicitly accounts for the safety stock, and thus improves the service levels, has been proposed. The range of parameter settings that assures the desired service level without affecting system stability has been determined. I. INTRODUCTION Past research in production-inventory systems addressed the problems associated with refinement of production ordering policies, cost optimization, stability analysis, comparison of production ordering policies, bullwhip reduction, etc. The structure of production-inventory systems has flows of information, materials, their accumulations and decision rules, and delays involved in processing information and in production. The decision rules, the parameters, and the delays involved are decisive in the system behavior. The general replenishment rules are based on the base stock level and rules defined for achieving the base stock to meet the customer demand. Studies related to variance amplification in production inventory systems - also called bullwhip effect, revealed that the gaps in the desired values of the work-inprocess (W IP ) and inventory are to be adjusted at fractional rates to control the variance amplification [1]. The dynamic behavior of production inventory systems were well addressed by research [2]. It is shown by previous research that System Dynamics (SD) simulations have a role to play in supply chain design [3]. SD modeling technique has been adopted in research [4] for modeling supply chain systems. The dynamic behavior of supply chains and production-inventory systems were analyzed by control theoretic modeling. For dealing with time varying nature of the supply chain systems, the use of control theory has been well explained in [5]. Control system theory has lessened the efforts required in the modeling and analysis of the dynamic structure of production-inventory systems with the use of frequency domain calculation. The application of SD modeling and control theoretic analysis together became The authors are with the interdisciplinary programme in Industrial Engineering and Operations Research, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Mumbai, INDIA. D. Bijulal <[email protected]>, Jayendran Venkateswaran <[email protected]>, N. Hemachandra <[email protected]> 978-1-4244-4579-0/09/$25.00 ©2009 IEEE instrumental in supply chain and production inventory systems analysis, especially in stability and bullwhip related research [1][6][7][8]. A. Related Literature A common structure of the production-inventory system analyzed in literature is from the inventory and order based production control system (IOBPCS) family of control policies [9], the latest among them being the automatic pipeline, variable inventory and order based production control system (APVIOBPCS)[1]. The control system structure of this policy has three tuning parameters. Two of them are the delays in adjusting discrepancies in production pipeline (WIP) and inventory, and the third is the smoothing constant selected for demand forecast [1]. Most of the past research [1][6][10] reported the analysis of variance amplification in orders and in inventory, stability conditions of models, etc. A three stage periodic review production system has been analyzed as discrete time system in the research in [7]. The importance of the system parameters and the effect of update frequency on the dynamic stability of the productioninventory system has been established by that research. They utilized the z-transform technique for deriving the stability conditions in terms of the tuning parameters. In production stages, they introduced higher order delays in place of fixed pipeline delays. This modification helped in avoiding the approximations, and to get exact solutions. This modeling methodology has been followed in [11] for getting the conditions of stability for a closed-loop system. An important aspect not considered in the past research is the service level constraints in the production-inventory models, especially while considering the system stability. Production-inventory systems work in stochastic demand condition [8]. Inventory systems become unable to meet customer demand due to the demand variability during a period. An important performance measure of an inventory system is the service level. It is the measure of the productioninventory system’s performance which shows the degree to which the customer demand is satisfied [12]. The past research so far addressed the question of getting a desired service level in an inventory system when the customer demand is uncertain. Some measures of performance accepted as service level are: average out standing back orders, average stock outs per unit time, average number of lost sales occurrences in unit time, fraction of demand lost, etc. [13]. A most common measure of service level is the probability that an order is fully satisfied from stock [14]. This measure is termed 489 A. System Model The system dynamics structure of the system model is adopted from a previous work [11]. The control theoretic model of the system is shown in Fig. 1. The accumulations are represented by the integration of the difference in the inflow and outflow signals. The variable W IP is the accumulation of the difference between the inflow (P REL) to the production process, and the outflow production completion rate (P CR) from the production process. Inventory in the system is the accumulation of the difference between P CR and customer demand (CD). Each production stage has a delay of (Lp /Q), where Lp is the Production Lead time and Q is the Number of Stages. We make use of higher (Qth ) order delay modeled by cascading Q number of I st order exponential delays. Forecasted Demand PREL PCR Prodn Process K Ts z-1 K Ts II. INTRODUCTION TO THE PROBLEM A three stage production system with generalized orderup-to (G OUT) replenishment policy for production orders is analyzed for its ability to meet the required service levels. The model analyzed in this study is similar to the model analyzed for stability in [7] and [11]. G OUT structure of production systems uses two negative feedback loops to control the production order releases to the plant. The feedbacks are based on the discrepancies in the desired values of W IP and IN V respectively. The system model represents a manufacturer receiving orders (demand) from the distributor, and producing goods based on the replenishment policy. The replenishment policy targets to maintain a base by keeping sufficient work-inprocess inventory. The gap between desired WIP (DW IP ) and W IP is adjusted at a fractional rate α. The gap in base stock (BS) and IN V is corrected at a fractional rate β. α and β are the control parameters in the system. The question to be answered is that: whether keeping the system stable is enough for meeting the service level requirements? If the cost optimization is also involved, what other considerations are required in the parameter setting? It is also aimed to study the variation of the performance measure (i.e., service level) within the stable region. This research analyzes the effect of the control parameters on the production-inventory system performance in terms of stability as well as service levels. The system faces a random i.i.d. demand of the form N (µ, σ 2 ). The average is estimated as the demand forecast and the standard deviation is assumed to be known. The objective is that: for a desired OF R, examine how the system performs at different (α, β) pairs, inside the stability region. The changes in cost requirements are also observed to get a feel of the investment comparison with different parameter settings. Sales &' Demand Forecasting z-1 Base Stock Calculation as the Order Fill Rate (OFR), which is also known as α-Service level or S1 -Service level. In certain cases the customer accepts partial supply against their orders. The balance quantity in the order can become either lost or back ordered [12]. In such cases, the ratio of the available stock to the demand quantity is called the Item Fill Rate (IFR) or Fill Rate, which is also known as β-Service level or S2 -Service level [14]. Service levels measured as fill rate in productioninventory systems while reducing the sum of bullwhip and inventory variance is analyzed in [8]. The research content in [8] is based on the parameter setting α = β, with different demand patterns. This parameter setting is known as DezielEilon line or D-E line [15], where the discrepancies in WIP and inventory (IN V ) are corrected with same amount of delay (delay = 1/f ractional rate). It will be insightful if we can predict the service level the system can achieve, while the tuning parameters α and β are selected within the entire stability region. A research on this direction which addresses system stability and service level requirements as well as average system costs are presented in this paper. WIP Alpha DWIP Lp INVENTORY Beta BS Fig. 1. The model structure B. Assumptions The basic assumption made in the system model is that it is a periodic review system with simulation time step kept as one period. The system state at the beginning of period is kept constant during the period and updated at the end of period. To keep the system linear, it is assumed that the capacities of storage and processing stages are infinite. In each period there is only one order from the customer side. The model uses G OUT policy for replenishment. If an order is not fully met from the system inventory, the unmet quantity become back ordered. C. OFR Modeling The performance parameters selected in this analysis are OFR and average system cost. OFR is measured as the ratio of the number of orders completely filled from inventory to the total number of orders. OFR in this study is taken as the long run ratio of the number of orders fully filled from the stock to the total number of orders. It is modeled as follows. OFR has to keep track of the number of orders completely satisfied from the available stock. This is captured in each period as orders filled (OF ), the value of which is binary. It is defined as function of the stock and the customer demand. i.e., 490 ( OF (n) = 1; 0; IN V (n) ≥ CD(n) otherwise (1) III. SYSTEM EQUATIONS AND STABILITY CONDITIONS The cumulative sum of this variable value over n periods1 gives the total number of orders filled (T OF ) from stock. T OF (n) = n X OF (i) (2) i=1 Therefore order fill rate in the system becomes: OF R(n) = T OF (n) n (3) The coefficient of variation of the i.i.d. random demand is kept at very low value so that the probability of occurrence of negative demand become zero. However the simulation model take care of such instances and avoid counting zero and negative demands in T OF and total orders2 . D. Average cost modeling The system has costs associated with the quantity back ordered in a period: the back order cost (b1 per item) and associated with the quantity stored in the system in a period (h per item). The total back orders in a period is observed for calculating the back order cost. It will include the back orders which are carried from previous periods also. The variable BO, which is the accumulation of the net effect of inflow back order rate (BOR) and outflow back order fill rate (BOF R), which is modeled as follows. BO(n) = BO(n − 1) + BOR(n − 1) − BOF R(n − 1) (4) ( CD(n) − IN V (n), CD(n) > IN V (n); BOR(n) = (5) 0, otherwise. " # 8 > <M in BO(n), , IN V (n) > CD(n); BOF R(n) = IN V (n) − CD(n) > : 0, otherwise. (6) The model variables and their interactions are represented by difference equations in time [11]. These equations are transformed using z-transformation and the stability of the system is analyzed against the exogenous variable CD. The stability is defined in terms of system parameters, fractional rate of adjustment for WIP discrepancy (α) and fractional rate of adjustment for inventory discrepancy (β). The exponentially smoothed demand forecast (F Dn ) for period ‘n’ is represented by (8), with ρ as the smoothing constant. Inventory (IN Vn ) at period n is represented by (9), showing the accumulation of net effect of P CR and CD with the initial value. The system WIP in period n is the accumulation of net effect of P REL and P CR, represented by (10). The production release, which is the sum of the base stock, and adjustments for the discrepancies in WIP and INV, is represented in (11). The adjustments for WIP and inventory are shown in (12) and (13) respectively. Base stock is taken as the demand forecast (14). WIP in j th production stage, in period n is represented by (15). The production completion rate (P CR) is represented by (16). F D(n) = F D(n − 1) + ρ(CD(n − 1) − F D(n − 1)) W IP ADJ(n) = α (Lp BS(n) − W IP (n)) IN V ADJ(n) = β (BS(n) − IN V (n)) p P CR(n) = W IPQ (n) × (Q/Lp ) (7) OF R(n) and Avg. Cost(n) at the end of the simulation are assumed to be better approximation of OFR and Average cost in the system. These variables are part of the system response which are not fed back to the system for decision making and do not affect the stability. Therefore this information is not part of the stability analysis and is omitted in the discussions on stability. (12) (13) BS(n) = F D(n) (14) ” ! “ 8 Q > W IP1 (n − 1) 1 − L > > p ; j = 1; > > < +P REL(n − 1) 1 0 “ ” W IPj (n) = Q > > >@ W IPj (n − 1) 1 − Lp A ; j ∈ {2, · · · , Q} > > Q : +W IPj−1 (n − 1) L The quantity BO(n) will incur back order cost per period, BO(n) × b1 . IN V (n), in period n will incur a carrying cost per period, IN V (n)×h. The total of these costs accumulated till period n gives the total cost. The per period average cost is calculated as the ratio of this accumulated costs to n. n 1X (IN V (i) × h + BO(i) × b1 ) Avg. Cost(n) = n i=1 (8) IN V (n) = IN V (n − 1) + (P CR(n − 1) − CD(n − 1)) (9) W IP (n) = W IP (n − 1) + (P REL(n − 1) − P CR(n − 1)) (10) P REL(n) = F D(n) + W IP ADJ(n) + IN V ADJ(n) (11) (15) (16) The z-transforms of the equations (8) to (14) are shown in equations (17) to (23) respectively. 1 Since it is assumed that in each period there is one order, number of orders and number of periods will be equal. 2 The occurrence of negative demand in an order is captured by N eg Sale which is a function of CD. ( 1; CD(n) ≤ 0 N eg Sale(n) = 0; otherwise ρ CD(z) z+ρ−1 1 IN V (z) = (P CR(z) − CD(z)) z−1 1 W IP (z) = (P REL(z) − P CR(z)) z−1 F D(z) = P REL(z) = F D(z) + W IP ADJ(z) + IN V ADJ(z) 491 (18) (19) (20) W IP ADJ(z) = α (Lp BS(z) − W IP (z)) (21) IN V ADJ(z) = β (BS(z) − IN V (z)) (22) BS(z) = F D(z) N eg Sale is then subtracted from T OF and Total Orders, n. (17) (23) Recursive solution of (15) yield the z-transform of WIP in the last production stage as (24) and (16) becomes (25): (Q/Lp )(Q−1) W IPQ (z) = z − 1 + Q/Lp (24) P CR(z) = W IPQ (z) × (Q/Lp ) (25) The above simultaneous algebraic equations ((17)· · · (25)) are solved to get the transfer function between the input variable CD and the output variable P REL. These equations are solved using Mathematicar 6.0, assuming forecasting constant ρ = 1. Thus: « “ ”Q „ (z − 1)(1 + αLp ) (z − 1) z + LQ − 1 p +2zβ − β P REL(z) 1 0 “ = (26) ”Q CD(z) Q z + − 1 (z + α − 1) B C Lp “ ”Q z(z − 1) @ A −(α − β) LQ p This is the general expression of the transfer function for any number of stages and any value of production delay. Since the model in this analysis assumes three stages, (Q = 3), and total production lead time Lp = 3 (i.e., Lp = Q = 3), this equation reduces to: z 5 (1 + 3α + 2β) − z 4 (2 + 6α + 3β) +z 3 (1 + 3α + β) P REL(z) = CD(z) (z − 1) {z 5 + z 4 (α − 1) + z(β − α)} (27) System stability is usually tested against a bounded input. The system (27) is Bounded Input Bounded Output (BIBO) stable, if the roots of the denominator polynomial (poles) lie within the unit circle in complex plane. The stability conditions in terms of α & β has been obtained by solving the denominator of (27) and the stability region is plotted in Fig. 2. 3 Fractional rate of adjustment of WIP (α) Unstable region D-E Lin e 2 Stable region 1 α>β α<β Unstable region 0 0 1 2 Fractional rate of adjustment of inventory (β) 3 Fig. 2. Stability boundary of the system defined by the system parameters The (α, β) region is divided to stable and unstable regions by a closed critically stable boundary. The selection of (α, β) pairs within the stable region makes the system stable against any change in the input. The output parameter will eventually converge to a steady value with or without initial oscillations. The selection along the boundary makes the system to continue sustained oscillations and selection of points outside the boundary will cause the system variables to continue oscillations with exponentially increasing amplitude. A. OFR for i.i.d. Normal demand The above discussion on stability applies to pulse and step inputs. For i.i.d. Normal, N (µ, σ 2 ) demand, a better approximation of future demand is µ itself. Exponentially smoothed demand forecast can approximate µ. Therefore, there is 50% probability that the demand is greater than the stock if the G OUT policy is used without modifications. This leads to OFR values as low as 50%. To overcome this difficulty, the inventory systems make use of the safety stocks. In this analysis also a safety stock is assumed and added to the expected demand, FD. Thus the base stock changes to F D+safety stock, where, safety stock= kσ and k = Φ−1 (DOF R) represents the safety factor [12]. DOF R is the target service level, desired OFR. Here we take an estimator for σ as the product of F D(n) and a constant ‘ν’, as in [8]. With this modification in base stock, (14) get modified to (28), where, a = (1 + ν)k, a constant. Therefore the system transfer function (27) get modified to (29): BS(n) = aF D(n) z 5 (1 P REL(z) = CD(z) (28) z 3 (1 + 3aα + β(1 + a)) + + 3aα + aβ) −z 4 (2 + 6aα + β(1 + 2a)) (z − 1) {z 5 + z 4 (α − 1) + z(β − α)} (29) Comparing (27) and (29), it is evident that the denominator polynomials do not change with this modification. Therefore the BIBO stability of the system do not get affected by modifying the base stock to account for DOFR as in (28). However the effect of modification is visible in the numerator, which controls the amplitude of the system response. It is noted that at a = 1, (29) reduces to (27). IV. SUB-REGIONS WITHIN STABILITY REGION The stability region can be divided into two by D-E line (α = β line) as α > β and α < β. Another division of the region can be α < 1 and β < 1, where the points will always show only fractional rates of adjustments (corresponds to delays greater than 1 period). A discussion on the expected system response for different combinations of parameters in stability regions is made below. D-E line shows the situation where the adjustments for inventory and WIP discrepancy are done at the same rate. α = β = 1 is typical, where the discrepancies are completely accounted for corrections. At this setting the replenishment policy is called the pure Order-up-to (pure OUT) policy. Along D-E line, if the discrepancies are adjusted by a small fraction, the parameter setting become α = β, and α < 1 and β < 1. A. Relation between Bullwhip and system performance It is shown by [1] and [8], that the bullwhip in the replenishment orders will be eliminated if the control parameters setting is α < 1 and β < 1. Once the variance amplification in the production orders are reduced/eliminated, the variance in inventory will also be reduced, which in turn can help smooth inventory build up and less holding costs as well as 492 2.5 Frac. Rate of adj. for WIP - a better service level, compared to pure OUT or aggressive ordering (α > 1, & β > 1) policies. Aggressive ordering policy make the system over react to the changes and the order variance get amplified. This variance amplification can be carried to inventory, and cause the service level to reduce because of fluctuations in inventory. Also the cost can increase because of increased number of stock out occasions. B. Parameter selection and variation in cost and service level The system model is simulated at two DOFR values with the base stock fixed as in (28). The variation of the performance parameters are plotted as contour plots inside the stability region, which are shown in Fig. 3 to Fig. 6. The OFR and average cost plots show different behaviors in relation to the D-E Line. Along the D-E line, however, 1.5 75 1.0 95 90 80 85 0.5 0.0 0.5 Fig. 3. 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 Frac. Rate of adj. for inventory - b 3.0 Contour plot of OFR with 95% DOFR Frac. Rate of adj. for WIP - a 2.5 2.0 125 115 112 1.5 110 108 1.0 140 107 0.5 0.0 0.0 Fig. 4. 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 Frac. Rate of adj. for inventory - b 3.0 Contour plot of Average System Cost for 95% DOFR Frac. Rate of adj. for WIP - a 2.5 V. SIMULATION EXPERIMENTS A. Results and discussions 55 65 0.0 The parameter selection can be on either side of the D-E line, i.e., either (α > β) or (α < β). • Case I α > β: Here the delay in adjusting the WIP discrepancy is less than that for inventory discrepancy. In the present setting, the quantity of discrepancy in WIP will always be more than the discrepancy in inventory. Therefore a correction for a higher quantity (WIP discrepancy) is made at a higher rate than the correction for a lesser quantity (inventory discrepancy). This can cause the WIP and inventory to build up at a faster rate, but with higher variability. The service level can improve because of increased average inventory and at the same time holding cost can also increase. • Case II α < β: Here the delay in adjusting the inventory discrepancy is less than that for WIP discrepancy. The inventory build up in this case can be expected to be slower than in the previous case leading to less average inventory and also with less variability. This reduced variability can influence the cost associated with the system to become lesser compared to the previous case. However, it can adversely affect the service level. The simulation experiments of the system model prepared in Powersimr 2.5 are conducted to observe the behavior of the system. The back order cost b1 and holding cost h are taken as 2 and 1 per period per item respectively. The demand distribution is assumed iid N (100, 1). The DOFR are selected to be 95% and 99% and the corresponding values of safety factor k becomes 1.64 and 2.33 respectively. Two set of experiments are conducted to obtain the system performance for the two DOFR values with a wide range of (α, β) pairs selected over the entire stable region. The total number of (α, β) pairs selected for the simulation study is around 270, spread uniformly within the stability region (Fig. 2). The replication length of simulation is kept as 3650 days (10 years), with the update period as one day, which is assumed to be sufficient for this study. 2.0 2.0 60 70 1.5 80 95 1.0 90 99 0.5 0.0 0.0 Fig. 5. 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 Frac. Rate of adj. for inventory - b 3.0 Contour plot of OFR with 99% DOFR there is intersection of the two conflicting objectives. The selection of (α, β) pairs for higher OFR always lie above the D-E line, while the selection of parameters for lesser average cost lie below the D-E line. This confirms the arguments made in Section IV-B. The zeros (roots of numerator polynomial) of a transfer function decide the amplitude of oscillations of the system response. If any one of the zeros is positioned near one on the real axis, the amplitude and overshoot increase. From the system transfer function (27), it is seen that when α → ∞ or β → 0 one of the zeros shifts towards 1. Therefore the relative positioning of the parameter pairs about the DE line will generate different amplitudes and settling times. It is 493 Frac. Rate of adj. for WIP - a 2.5 2.0 affecting the service level, (Fig. 3, & Fig. 5). These results give insights into the criteria for selection of the parameter pairs for tuning the system and achieving the performance measures at the desired levels. The results of this study provide a clear picture of the service level variation within the entire region of system stability. This helps in selecting the parameter pairs, (α, β) based on required service level and cost constraints. 125 115 112 1.5 110 109 140 1.0 0.5 VI. OBSERVATIONS AND CONCLUSIONS A. Future Work Selection of forecasting constant ρ as one is a limitation in this study. The influence of ρ in service level and its sensitivity are to be analyzed in detail. The delays in production stages also has significant role in the dynamic behavior of the system, which has to be explored in detail. Selection of the safety factor, k < Φ−1 (DOF R) can help reduce the system costs. However the scale of reductions possible in the average cost, safety factor, and the boundary for (α, β) pairs to maintain service level can be determined only with more experiments. A generalization scheme for the parameter selection will be much more helpful from practical point of view. These aspects will be dealt with in detail in the future work. The system can achieve desired order fill rate only when the value of fractional rate of adjustment for inventory (β) is set ≤ 0.7. However, the value of fractional rate of adjustment for inventory (α) can increase up to 1.2. The D-E Line (α = β line) forms a lower bound for the parameter setting to maintain the desired order fill rate. This is equivalent to saying that the inventory discrepancy can be accounted up to a maximum of 70% to maintain the service level (Fig. 3 & Fig. 5). Even though β can be set as low as 0 for α ≤ 1, α = 0 is possible only for β ≤ 4/9. This shows the inevitability of considering the supply line while making replenishment decisions. For any value of desired OFR proper selection of the parameters will enable achieving OFR above the desired value. This analysis also shows that for achieving DOFR, the general replenishment policy, α < 1 and β < 1, is better than the pure OUT replenishment policy, i.e., α = β = 1. Interestingly, the average cost plots, Fig. (4) & Fig. (6), show that the parameters are to be selected below the D-E line to assure minimal costs. This is in agreement with the intuitive discussions made in Section IV-B. However, it can be observed that the same service level can be achieved with different average costs and safety factor. Eg. for OF R = 95%, (α, β) = (1, 0.5) will be a parameter selection (Fig. 3) with an average cost ≈ 112 (Fig. 4). If less cost is desired, (α, β) = (0.5, 0.5) will be a better option with average cost ≈ 107. If safety factor can be fixed for DOF R = 99%, 95% OFR can be achieved by setting (α, β) = (1, 1) with average cost ≈ 110 (Fig. 5 & Fig. 6). A proper selection of (α, β) pairs can offer lower cost as well as higher service levels. It is observed that the D-E line forms an upper bound for the parameter setting to keep the average system cost at lower levels. This will also help in selecting the safety factor, k < Φ−1 (DOF R), without [1] J. Dejonckheere, S. M. Disney, M. R. Lambrecht, and D. R. Towill, “Measuring and avoiding the bullwhip effect: A control theoretic approach,” European Journal of Operational Research, vol. 147, no. 3, pp. 567–590, 2003. [2] J. Forrester, Industrial Dynamics. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 1961. [3] J. Wikner, D. R. Towill, and M. 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