Biological Journal of the Linnean Society ( 1 989), 36: 29553 1 1 Discriminant analysis of Lepidopteran prey characteristics and their effects on the outcome of bird-feeding trials DAVID B. MACLEAN Department of Biological Sciences, Youngstown State Universily, Youngstown, Ohio 44555 THEODORE D. SARGENT Department of <oology, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, Massachusetts 01003 AND BONNIE K. MACLEAN Department of Biology, Thiel College, Greenville, Pennsylvania 16125 Received 16 j%ne 1988, accepted f n r publicatton 26 October 1988 Discriminant analysis was used to analyse the results of 348 bird-feeding trials conducted from 1982 to 1985 in Leverctt, Massachusetts. Four size classes, seven appearancc categories, and five larval host types, based on 163 species ofmoths and butterflies used as prey in two or more trials, were selected as predictor variables t o discriminate between prey takrn and not taken by birds. Discriminant analysis of individual fccding trials correctly sified 97.5 percent of prry takrn or not-taken and ranked thc predictor variables according to their relative importance in determining prey arreptability. Characteristics most acceptable to birds were: ( I ) large size, (2) bark-like appearance, (3) warning colouration, (4) woody generalist, (5) dead-leaf-like appearance, (6) woody specialist, and ( 7 ) medium size. Characteristics least acceptable to birds were: ( I ) srnall size, (2) mimetic appearance, ( 3 ) butterfly appearance, (4) herbaceous specialist food type, (5) black-and-white appearance, ( 6 ) extra large size, and ( 7 ) overall generalist feeder. A summary of thc analyscs includes a discriminant function based on Icpidoptrran characteristics that r a n be uscd to predict the prey acccptability of species not uscd in this study. A multiple regression analysis ofprey taken revealed that sizc alone and larval host type combined with other prey rharacteristics were the most important variables in determining the selection of prey regardlrss of their abundance in the trials. KEY WORDS: Adaptive colouration analysis feeding trials - Lepidoptera rolouration visual predators. ~ ~ ~ ~ aspect diversity bird ferding behaviour discriminant multivariate analysis prey characteristics - protective ~ ~ ~ CONTEN'I'S Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Methods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Bird-feeding trials . . . . . . . Coding of p r y characteristics and dat a analysis 002&4066/89/030295 + 17 $03.00/0 295 . . . . . . . . . . . Q 1989 T h e Linnean Society 296 297 297 297 of London 296 D. B. MACLEAN E 7 i l L Results . . . . . . . . . . Chi-square analysis of prey characteristics Discriminant analysis of feeding trials . Discussion. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . References. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 298 298 30 I 306 310 INTRODUCTION In most terrestrial communities, there is a wide range of insect sizes and appearances. T h e aspect diversity of cryptic and noncryptic appearances is especially striking among families of Lepidoptera (Ricklefs & O’Rourke, 1975). Appearances described as bark-like and dead leaf-like are cryptic on the appropriate backgrounds and presumably offer protection from visually searching predators such as birds (Sargent, 1966; 1968; 1969a, b; 1973; Erichsen, Krebs & Houston, 1980; Pietrewicz & Kamil, 1981). Bright and sometimes contrasting colours are known to serve as startle stimuli, e.g. Catocala spp. (Sargent, 1976; Schlenoff, 1985), as warning or advertising stimuli (Coppinger 1969; Guilford, 1985; 1986), and as Batesian or Muellerian mimetic stimuli (Waldbauer & Sternburg, 1976; Sternburg, Waldbauer & Jeffords, 1977; Jeffords, Sternburg & Waldbauer, 1979).There have been few prior studies of the relative acceptabilities of a wide array of lepidopteran prey to avian predators in the field. Jones (1932, 1934) conducted a n extensive series of experiments involving dead insects presented to wild birds at a feeding station on the island of Martha’s Vineyard, Massachusetts. These studies, though similar in some respects to those reported here, involved inconsistencies in experimental design that precluded rigorous statistical analysis of the results. A general comparison, however, ofJones’ results and those obtained in the present study is in preparation (Sargent). Collins & Watson (1983) have also reported observations of bird predation on a large number ofneotropical moth species, though here the moths were either resting near light sources or hand-launched, rather than presented in discrete feeding trials. This paper presents the results of 348 bird-feeding trials carried out from 1982 through 1985 to evaluate how prey type (moth us. butterfly), shape (open us. closed), size, appearance, larval host type, relative abundance, and position on the feeding tray determined the selection of2 13 lepidopteran prey species used in the trials. T o analyse the large amount of feeding trial data, we chose discriminant analysis, a multivariate statistical method. The primary purpose of multivariate methods is to simplify and express the underlying causes of variation in a set of multivariate data by a smaller set of components or functions (Morrison, 1976; Kachigan, 1982). This can be achieved by such techniques as factor analysis or principal components analysis which attempt to extract a small number of factors or components from a large set of variables. Discriminant analysis, on the other hand, attempts to discriminate between two or more mutually exclusive criterion groups based on a linear discriminant function derived from a set of predictor variables. The association of individual variables with each group is expressed by their classification function coefficients. T h e relative contribution of each predictor variable can be evaluated as its standardized discriminant function coefficient (Johnson & Wichern, 1982; Karson, 1982; Afifi & Clark, 1984). T h e use of discriminant functions to predict group membership based on the chosen predictor variables and to classify individual cases, e.g. species, to such groups are important features of discriminant analysis. MacLean (1984) carried LEPIDOPIERAN PREY CHARAC’IERIS’IICS 297 out a discriminant analysis of Catocala species hindwing groups using population and life history traits as predictor variables. In this case, the inability to correctly classify some cryptically similar species supported the hypothesis that anomaly creates a degree of uncertainty for birds in associating hindwing patterns with other characteristics of adult Catocala (Sargent, 1976). The present paper addresses five questions. ( 1 ) Can the selection of butterflies and moths by birds be evaluated by discriminant analysis of characteristics such as prey size, appearance, and larval host type? (2) Which characteristics are most often associated with prey that were selected by birds during the trials? (3) How well did the results of discriminant analysis classify individual species into two criterion groups, (a) prey taken and (b) prey not-taken? (4) Which combinations ofprey characteristics were (a) least acceptable and (b) most acceptable to birds? (5) How did the proportion of prey types affect prey acceptability? METHODS Bird-feeding trials Data analysed in this study were obtained from 348 bird-feeding trials. All the moths were taken at 150-watt incandescent spotlights (Westinghouse outdoor projector) at the home of T. Sargent in Leverett, Massachusetts during the collecting seasons of 1982 through 1985 (Sargent, 1987). Butterflies were collected by net during the day at distances of up to 10 km from this site. All specimens were immediately frozen in small jars in the freezer compartment of a household refrigerator and were thawed just prior to their use in the bird-feeding trials. A bird-feeding trial consisted of a 15-minute presentation ofsix different species or distinctive morphs. T h e insects were placed on a light blue dish, 15.24 cm in diameter, which was set out on an open feeding tray located 1 m from a large glass door through which observations were made. The observer was approximately 2 m from the feeding tray and recorded the specimens taken, in order, the bird species taking each insect, and any reaction of the birds after taking the prey (SW, swallowed-whole; DWE, de-winged and eaten; DWD, de-winged and dropped; PD, picked up and dropped in place; T D R , taken and dropped later). All feeding trials were conducted between 06.00 and 08.00 hours EDST, and no more than four trials were run on any one day. Two hundred and thirteen species of butterflies and moths were used as prey. O n e hundred and sixty-three of these species were tested in two or more trials. Coding of p r q characterislics and data anabsis All species were coded by Hodges numbers (Hodges et al., 1983) and the following characteristics were recorded for the species used in 2 or more trials: (1) size, (2) larval host type, (3) appearance, (4) closed us. open wings, and (5) the reaction of the bird to capturing prey. Four size classes, based on a mean wing span (45.0 mm) and standard deviation (14.0 mm), were established: (1) small, <38.0 mm ( n = 6 4 ) ; (2) medium, 38.1-52.0 mm ( n = 9 4 ) ; (3) large, 53.0-67.0 mm (n=26); and (4) extra large, >67.0 mm ( n = 19). Species were assigned to one of seven different appearance categories: ( I ) barklike (BK), (2) dead-leaf-like (DL), (3) green-plant-like (GP), (4) warninglycoloured (WC), (5) mimetic (MC), (6) black-and-white (BK), and (7) 298 U B MACLEAN E T A I , unclassified ( U N ) . Assignment into these categories was based on our own field experience and on reports in the literature, but was often necessarily subjective. The extent to which some of these assignments may be incorrect from the point of view of the predators in this study will be discussed later. The unclassified category was used primarily for butterflies that did not fall into one of the other categories. Wings were also categorized as being open or closed when in the normal resting attitude of the species in question. Lepidoptera with wings held over the back or with all four wings exposed were clasified as ‘open’ while those with hindwings covered by the forewings while at rest were classified as ‘closed’. Larval host categories were: (1) overall generalist (OG), (2) herbaceous generalist (HG), (3) herbaceous specialist (HS), (4) woody generalist (WG),and (5) woody specialist (WS). These assignments were based on published foodplant records (e.g. Forbes, 1923; 1948; Klots, 1951; Forbs, 1954; 1960; Covell, 1984). Specialists were taken as those species for which the foodplants known to be utilized belong to only one family. Because published foodplant information may sometimes be erroneous or incomplete, some species may have been incorrectly placed. The compiled enumeration data were subjected to chi-square analyses to test the hypotheses that the number of Lepidoptera taken us. not taken were independent of: butterflies and moths; butterfly families; moth families; prey size, aspect, larval host type, wing shape, cryptic apearance; and bird behaviour. The prey characteristics listed above, and the bird species were treated as dichotomous or binary (0, 1) predictor variables for the discriminant analysis of feeding trials. Data analysed for each trial were: size, appearance, host, taken or not-taken, rank-taken, and bird species. The four most abundant bird species in the trials were the blue jay, Cyanocitta cristata (L.); black-capped chickadee, Parus atricapillus (L.); white-breasted nuthatch, Sitta carolinensis Latham; and tufted titmouse, Parus bicolor (L.). Since chi-square analyses showed that the size, appearance, and larval host type of prey selected were not dependent on their location on the dish, position was eliminated as a predictor variable. A total of 37 584 data from 348 feeding trials was subjected to discriminant analysis. Since criterion groups must be mutually exclusive and few species were either always taken or never taken, it was necessary to analyse individual feeding trials. Based on the results of each trial, prey species were assigned to two mutually exclusive criterion categories: ( 1) taken and (2) not-taken. Discriminant analysis was carried out by the SPSS program on the Youngstown State University Amdahl 5868 computer. Methods and options selected were the largest increase in the generalized distance (Rao’s V) for the selection of predictor variables and group size (numbers taken and not-taken) for determining the probability of group membership. RESULTS Chi-square analysis of prey characleristics ‘The results of contingency table analyses carried out on prey characteristics and bird-feeding behaviour are summarized in Tables 1 and 3 . The mean ranktaken (1-6) for prey selected by birds during the trials is given in Table2 for families of butterflies and moths and prey size, aspect, and larval host type. T h e only variable dependent upon the position of prey on the feeding tray was rank- LEPIDOPTERAN PREY CHARACTERISTICS 299 taken for all years except 1982. This was no doubt due to the location of shelter nearest to positions 1, 2, and 3. Fortunately, size, appearance, larval host, ranktaken and position taken were independent of bird species. Thus, feeding differences among birds did not affect the interpretation of the results. The number ofprey taken was highly dependent on the taxonomic category of the prey (Table 1 ) . Many fewer butterflies and many more moths were taken than expected. Some families of butterflies (Hesperiidae and Pieridae) and moths (Lasiocampidae, Sphingidae, Notodontidae, and Lymantriidae) were preferred over others. Fewer butterflies of the Nymphalidae, Lycaenidae and Danaidae; and fewer moths of the Limacodidae, Drepanidae, Geometridae and Arctiidae were taken than expected. The number of prey taken was also highly dependent on prey shape. Fewer of the ‘open’ and more of the ‘closed’ shape were taken than expected. T h e number of prey taken was also highly dependent on crypsis. Many more cryptic prey and r 1 1ABLE 1. Chi-square analyses of lepidopteran prey taken and not-taken in two or more of348 bird-feeding trials carried out from 1982 through 1985 in Leverett Massachusetts. Results are givcn for six categories of prey characteristics Comparison Butterflies us. moths Butterflies Moths Butterfly families Danaidae Hesperiidae Lyraenidae Nymphalidae Papilionidae Pieridae Satyridae Moth families Arctiidae Drepanidae Geornetridae Lasiocarnpidae Limarodidae Lymantriidae Noctuidae Notodontidae Pyralidae Saturniidae Sphingidae ’I‘hyatridae Wing shapr Open Closed Larval host type Generalist Specialist Appearance Cryptic Non-cryptir * P < 0.05; * * * P < 0.001 d.f. x2 I 204.28* * * 6 9 1 1 1 No. of Prey __ Taken Not-taken 192 1206 180 198 6 14 2 56 27 73 21 11 2 5 61 24 51 21 1I 6 13 186 76 5 63 795 113 14.57* 265.23* ** 257.43** * 53 3 60 74 2 15 73 3 5 9 92 0 0 16 3 0 370 1366 266 176 985 708 20 1 209 1285 364 167 275 10.88*** 262.81 *** 300 D. B. MACLEAN E T AL. many fewer non-cryptic prey were taken than expected. Hostplant generalists were significantly preferred over hostplant specialists. Subdividing the contingency table revealed, however, that this was due to significantly fewer herbaceous specialists being taken than expected compared to other specialist types. Indeed more woody specialists were taken than expected, indicating that CO ABLE 2. Mean rank (1-6) oflepidopteran prey taken in two or more of 348 bird-freding trials carried out from 1982 to 1985 in Ixverctt Massachusetts. Results are given for eight categories of prey characteristics Catcgory Butterfly families Danaidae Hesperiidae Lycaenidar Nymphalidae l’apilionidac Pirridar Satyridae Moth familics Arctiidae Drepariidac Geometridar Lasiocampidac Limacodidae Lymaritriidac Noctuidac Notodontidac Pyralidae Saturriiidac Thyatridae Size Small Medium Large X-large Prey aspect Bark-like BK Dead-leaf DL Green-plant GP Warning colour W C Mimetic M C Black & white BW Unclassificd U N Larval host type Overall generalist OG Herbaceous generalist H G Herbaceous specialist HS Woody generalist WG Woody specialist WS Wing shape Open Closed Larval host type Generalist Specialist Appearance Cryptic Non-cryptic Mean rank taken 3.89 4.20 3.30 3.50 3.80 4.00 4.30 4.10 3.00 3.80 4.70 4.40 3.80 3.80 4.80 3.10 3.20 3.30 2.20 5.00 3.45 3.10 2.31 3.10 2.56 3.22 3.75 3.07 3.73 3.97 4.12 3.41 3.11 3.77 2.86 2.82 3.84 3.09 3.13 3.29 2.89 3.73 30 1 LEPIDOPTERAN PREY CHARACTERISTICS birds did not simply avoid taking specialists in general, but only those that specialized on herbaceous plants. Among the butterflies, birds took hesperiids, lycaenids, and nymphalids early in the trials and pierids, danaids, and papilionids later (Table 2). Among the moths, mean rank-taken indicated a definite preference by birds for the sphingids, noctuids and notodontids, while lymantriids, drepanids, and geometrids were usually taken later. Behavioural reactions to the prey were highly dependent on size, appearance, and larval host type (Table 3 ) . More small prey were swallowed-whole, and more large and extra large prey were de-winged and eaten than expected. Many more bark-like prey were swallowed-whole and fewer dropped than expected. Small departures from expected were noted for dead-leaf-like prey that were de-winged and eaten (fewer) and picked up and dropped (more). More green-plant prey were dropped than expected. Fewer prey than expected were taken for the warningly-coloured, mimetic, black-and-white, and unclassified appearances. Among host plant specialists, less than half the number expected were swallowed-whole and more than twice the number expected were dropped. More woody generalists and specialists than expected were swallowed whole. Discriminant analysis of feeding trials The result of the discriminant analyses are summarized in Table4. The number of trial solutions is less than the number of trials analysed for any one year, since a solution could be found only for those trials in which one or more prey were not taken (62.6%).Also, only those solutions which resulted in an eigen value > 1.0 were included in the results (47.7%). T h e number of different predictor variables selected ranged from 12 to 15. T h e percentage of cases 3. Chi-square analyses of five types of bird feeding behaviour and the size, aspect, and larval host type oflepidopteran prey used in two or more bird-feeding trials carried out from 1982 through 1985 in Leverett Massachusetts. SW = swallowed-whole, DWE = de-winged and eaten, PD = picked up and dropped in place, TDR = taken and dropped later 'rABLE Comparison Prey size Small Medium Large X-large Prry aspect Bark-like BK Dead-leaf DL Green-plant GP Warning-colour WC Mimics Black & white BW Unclassified U N Larval host type Overall generalist O G Herbaceous generalist H G Herbaceous specialist HS Woody generalist WG Woody specialist WS ***P < o.oni. d.f. x2 12 90.6*** 24 16 sw DWE PD TDR 93 193 22 4 11 74 29 9 52 47 5 3 7 25 4 5 1 in 127 6 48 1 9 3 33 43 7 51 7 14 8 7 17 4 15 0 9 3 2 7 39 22 15 146 83 12 11 4 24 40 20 8 3 12 10 7 120.3*** 1 33 4 3 7 54.43*** 9 17 61 29 D. B. MACLEAN E T AL 302 TABLE 4. Summary of discriminant analyses of bird-feeding trials conducted from 1982-85 Number of Year 1982 1983 1984 1985 'lotals 01 /O Trials Analysesd Solutions' Var.' Corr.d Correc. class" 46 119 73 110 348 36 61 38 I7 218 29 53 31 53 166 12 15 13 13 13 0.824 0.839 0.844 0.861 0.861 97.1 95.0 97.2 97.5 97.5 "Trials in which one or more prey were not taken. '"umber of solutions with an eigen value > 1.0. 'Number of predictor variables selected for all analyses. "Mean values. classified to the correct criterion group, that is ( 1 ) prey taken and (2) prey nottaken, was very high for all years (95.0-97.5%). Canonical correlation, which expresses the association between the discriminant function scores and typical (centroid) values for the two criterion groups ranged from 0.824 to 0.861. Using the same set of predictor variables, it was not possible to discriminate between prey taken early (ranks 1-3) and late (ranks 4-6) in the trials. Relative importance of individual prgy characteristics to the outcome f bird-feeding trials. A major objective was to identify and rank those characteristics which were most often associated with prey that were (1) taken and (2) not-taken. The relative importance of the predictor variables was determined by summing the number of trials in which each variable was chosen and calculating the mean classification function coefficients based on all years (Table 5). The sign and magnitude of the coefficients indicate the relative association of each variable with the two criterion groups. Characteristics associated with prey that were taken are ranked according to their mean classification function coefficients as follows: ( 1 ) large size, (2) bark-like appearance, (3) warning colouration, (4) woody generalist, (5) dead-leaf-like appearance, (6) woody specialist, and (7) medium size. Characteristics associated with prey that were not taken are ranked according to their mean classification function coefficients as follows: ( 1 ) small size, (2) mimetic appearance, (3) unclassified appearance, (4) herbaceous specialist, (5) black-and-white appearance, (6) extra large size, and ( 7 ) overall generalist host t Y Pe. Calculating the difference between the classification function coefficients for each predictor variable resulted in the linear discriminant function given at the bottom of Table 5. T h e value of the discriminant function that separates the two criterion groups (Kachigan, 1982; Afifi & Clark, 1984) equals 0.739. Based on this function, it is possible to predict whether or not a prey species not included in this study would be taken by a bird. Specimens with scores less than 0.739 would be assigned to the not-taken category and those with scores higher than 0.739 to the taken category. For example, a small, black-and-white woody specialist with a discriminant function score of Z = - 9.3 - 5.9 8.4 = - 6.8 would be assigned to the not-taken group. A large, bark-like, woody generalist with a score of Z=5.6+5.3+ 1.8= 12.7 would be assigned to the taken group. + LEPIDOPTERAN PREY CHARACTERISTICS 303 TABLE5. Summary of the relative importance of prey characteristics selected as predictor variables from 166 discriminant analyses of bird-feeding trials that resulted in an eigen value > 1.0 Criterion groupsb Predictor variable ___ Size X , Small SM X, Medium MED X , Largc LAR X, Extra large XLAR Appearance Xi Bark-like BK X, Dead-leaf DL X, Green-plant GP X, Warning colour W C X, Mimetic MC X,, Black & white BW X I , Unclassified UN Larval hosts XI, Over. gen. O G X I , Herb. gen. HG X,, Herb. sper. HS X I i Woody gen. WG XI,,Woody spcc. WS Bird sperics X I , Blue jay XI, Chickadee X I , Titmouse NO." Rank Taken 6.0 I .o 12.5 12.5 0. I 3.9 8.1 0.4 9.4 2.6 2.5 2.3 Not-taken - 28 60 10 10 30 34 0 11 2 2 8 4.5 3.0 5.2 3.8 -0.1 1.6 11.0 18.0 18.0 15.0 6.9 1.4 -3.0 1.4 1.6 9.4 2.0 7.3 16 2 27 51 30 9.0 18.0 7.0 2.0 4.5 3.9 0.6 1.1 4.6 4.6 5.6 0.6 6.8 2.3 2.8 24 15 7 8.0 10.0 16.0 6.2 3.5 6.7 - 2.2 - 4.5 - 2.6 Z = -9.3 X , + 1 . 3 X,+5.6 X,-1.9 X,+5.3 X, f 2 2 X,+5.3 X,-8.0 X,-5.0 XI,-5.9 X I , - 1.7 X12-5.7 X,,+2.3 X I , + 1.8 XI, +8.4 X,,+8.0 X,,+9.3 X,, C (cut-off score) = 0.739 "Number of disrriminant functions with eigen values > 1.0 "can classification function corficients. T h e probability o f individual lepidopteran prey species being taken ly birds Results of the discriminant analyses were next used to estimate the probability of individual prey species being selected during a feeding trial. T h e probability of classifying a species to the taken criterion group, along with percent taken and average rank are given in Table6 for 95 species. The probability of species X being taken (P(X))was calculated as the average of the probability of classifying it to the correct criterion group (based on the discriminant analysis) and trials in which all prey were taken. That is, for trials in which all prey were taken, P ( X ) was treated as 1 .O and averaged with the classification probabilities for species X. Prey acceptability categories (defined for P ( X ) taken) were: ( 1 ) extremely high, > 0.90; (2) high, 0.70-0.89; moderate, 0.40-0.69; and low, < 0.40. Spearman rank correlations of correctly classifying a species to the taken group ( P ( X ) )with percent taken (r,=0.926, n = 9 1 ) and mean rank (r,,= -0.521, n = 9 1 ) were highly significant (P<0.001). The P ( X ) taken values, derived from the classification phase of each discriminant analysis, were used to express the relative acceptability of the lepidopteran species used as prey in the feeding trials. Since species of moths and butterflies represent different sizes, appearances, and larval host types, we attempted to access which combinations of prey 6. Prey charactcriatics, percent taken, average rank, a n d probability of correctly classifying rach prey individual (X) as a membcr of the taken category for 95 species of Lepidoptera ' rA B L E 'Iaxon" Species Nb Size Aspccl Host" ?,, Taken Av. rank 1' ( X ) taken __ __ .~ _ ~ Hespcriidae 3870 Epargyreus clarus Papiljonidac 4 I59 Papilio pnlyxenes 41 76 Papzlio glaucus 4181 Pupilin lroilus Picridac 4197 Artogeiu rapae 4209 ( , M a s philodice 42 10 Colius eurytheme 1,ycarnidac 4282 Sdyrium calanus Nymphalidac Pobpnia comma 442 I 4434 Vunessa uirginiensi3 4436 C'anma atalnnta rubria 4440 Juonia covnia 445 1 Spvyeria aphrudite 448 1 Phyciode.r lharos 45 16 Euphydyyas phueton 4523 Hasilarchia archippus Satyridae 458 7 Ceryonir pe&a Danaidac 461 4 Danaus plexippu,hus 15 MED DL WS 73.3 3.6 0.827 14 XLAR 19 XLAR 18 XLAR UN IJN UN HS M'G WS 57.1 36.8 66.7 4.2 3.4 4.4 0.381 0.462 0.788 43 MED 59 MED 19 MED UN UN UN HS HS HS 46.5 56.5 73.7 4.3 4.2 4.5 0.528 0.654 0.738 7 SM DL WS 28.6 3.5 0.377 DL DL DL DL UN DL WC MC OG HS HS HG HS HS HS WG 80.0 44.4 85.7 50.0 60.0 27.3 25.0 51.7 3.8 3.3 3.6 3.8 3.0 5.7 3.3 3.5 0.809 0.694 0.744 0.667 0.674 0.417 0.395 0.515 23 LAR DI, HS 73.9 2.9 0.768 17 X I A R WC HS 35.3 4.2 0.358 11 SM BW OG 27.3 3.3 0.306 10 SM DL DL WS WC 20.0 57.1 5.0 4.8 0.01 1 0.777 4.2 3.1 5.3 4.6 2.8 4.1 2.4 4.3 4.1 3.2 4.0 1.7 0.578 0.992 0.607 0.775 0.790 0.683 0.998 0.460 0.838 0.852 0.836 0.608 5 9 14 8 5 11 12 29 MED MED MED LAR XLAR SM MED XLAR I'yralidac 5159 DrsmiaJuneralis Drepanidar 625 I Drepana arcualu 6252 Drepana hilineata Gcometridac 6583 Anacnmptode.c ephyraria 6720 lgtrosis unitaria 6739 Eurhlaena irrariu 6743 Xanthn&pe sospeta 6753 Pero honv.rtnriu 6796 Campueu perlatn 6797 Ennorno.! mngnaria 6798 Ennomos subsignaria 6864 Curipeta piniatu 6982 ProchoerodeJ transuer.snta 7290 Co?yphista meadii 729 1 Hydria undiulata Lasiocampidae 7670 'Tolype iirlleda 7687 PlyllodeAma americana 7698 Malacosoma disJtriu 770 1 Malacosoma americanum Saturniidac 7 7 15 Dvocampn rubicurida 7732 I-lemilvura lucina Sphingidae Ceratomia undulosa 7787 7824 Pa'aonius excaecntus 7825 Paonias myops 7827 1.aothoejuglnndir 7853 Hemaris thysbe 7 SM 11 18 11 17 14 41 16 14 25 37 II 6 SM MED MED MED SM MED MED SM SM MED SM SM BK BK D1, DL DL BW DL BW DL DL DL D I, WG WG OG WG WG WG WG WS OG WS WG 60.0 100.0 54.5 70.6 78.6 53.7 100.0 42.9 72.0 89.2 72.7 50.0 7 I1 13 46 MED MED SM BK DL DL 111, WG WG WG WG 100.0 90.9 100.0 93.5 4.3 3.8 4.2 2.6 0.974 0.931 0.977 0.948 56 MED 11 MED WC wC WG WS 83.9 63.6 3.2 4.9 0.881 0.395 15 XLAR BK DL DL DL R.I C WG 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 37.5 1.5 1.5 2.0 2.4 3.3 0.981 0.988 0.906 0.875 0.488 SM 1 1 XLAR 8 LAR 7 LAR 8 MED wc, M'G WG WG WG _ ‘1ABLE Taxon“ Sprcics Notodontidae 792 1 Peridea,ferruginea Arctiidae 8090 Hypoprepiafucosa 8 107 Haploa clymenp 8 11 1 Haploa lecontei 8 1 14 Holomelina laeta 8129 Pyrrharctia i,sabella 8 134 Spilosoma congrua 8 137 Spilosoma uirginica 8203 Halysidota tessellaris 8230 Cjcnia tenera 8262 Ctenucha uirginica 8267 Ci.r.wpsfulvicolli Lymantriidae 8302 Dasychira oblz~quata 83 16 Orgyia leucostigma 83 18 Igmantria dispar Noctu idae 8587 Panapoda rujimarp 8588 Paaapoda carneicoJta 864 1 Qnedoida grandirena 8719 Euparthenos nuhilis 8727 Parallelia b i h a r t s 8739 Caenurgina erechtea 8781 Catocala judith 8788 Catocala retecta 8795 Catocala palaeogama 8848 Catocala andromedae 8857 Catocala ultronia 8858 Catocala crataegi 8878 Catocala amica 8904 Chrysanympha formosa 8924 Anagrapha falcijera 9183 t’anthea pallescens 9189 Charadra deridens 9200 Acronicta americana 9207 Acronicta irinotata 928 1 Agriopodes Jallax 9480 Papaipema ptersii 9483 Papaipema inqumsita 9546 Phlogophora iris 9556 Clytonix palliatricula 9638 Amphipyra pyramidoides Sunira bicoloraga 9957 10067 Adita chionanthi 10300 Lacanobia grandis 10438 Pseudaletia unipuncta 10524 Nephelodes minians 10651 Agrotis uenerabilis 10663 Agrotis ipsilon 10670 Feltia jaculijera 10942 XeJtia adela 10969 Anomogyna dilucida 1 1 164 Schinia Jorida N’ 6-continued Size 20 MED 19 7 17 3 47 34 17 63 3 7 8 SM MED MED SM LAK MED MED MED SM MED SM yo Taken Aspect‘ Host” BK WS 95.0 MC WG OG OG OG OG HG OG WG HS Av. rank P ( X ) taken 2.7 0.919 MC HG 0.0 42.9 11.8 0.0 93.6 91.2 94.1 88.9 33.3 52.1 0.0 14 MED 7 SM 51 SM UL DL DL WG OG OG 92.9 85.7 84.3 2.6 3.8 3.1 0.697 0.834 0.770 15 MED 10 MED DL DL 7 10 42 6 DL BK D I, DL BK BK BK BK BK BK BK DL BK BK BK BK BK GP DL DL DL BK BK DL BK BK DL DL BK BK DL DL BK G 1’ WS WG WS WS WG HG WS WS WS WS WS WS WS WS OG WS WS WG WG WS HS 93.3 90.0 57.1 100.0 78.6 83.3 100.0 3.4 3.7 2.5 1.6 3.4 3.0 2.5 2.0 3.0 3.2 2.4 2.9 2.8 3.0 3.6 2.3 2.7 1.7 3.3 5.0 3.4 1.6 3.6 2.6 2.4 3.8 1.8 2.6 3.6 2.4 3.2 I .9 2.0 2.9 3.3 4.2 0.905 0.917 0.613 0.977 0.741 0.787 0.914 0.972 0.784 0.981 0.876 0.857 0.901 0.760 0.989 0.969 0.937 0.980 0.823 0.61 1 0.989 0.993 0.799 0.599 0.890 0.987 0.971 0.997 0.997 0.993 0.995 0.998 1.0 0.997 0.987 0.797 10 14 8 13 369 9 30 6 8 150 35 45 36 5 11 5 11 9 60 8 6 7 13 12 16 14 7 14 19 10 SM LAR MED SM MED XLAR LAK MED LAK MED MED SM SM MED MED LAR MED SM SM SM MED SM MED SM SM MED MED MED MED MED SM MhD MED SM wc WC WC wc WC wc WC WC MC HG HS HG WG OG WS WG OG HS HG HG OG OG WS HS 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 88.9 93.3 83.3 100.0 98.6 97.1 100.0 83.3 62.5 100.0 100.0 81.6 55.6 98.3 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 90.0 3.7 5.0 2.6 3.4 3.7 2.7 5.0 4.8 0.190 0.190 0.269 0.044 0.878 0.927 0.997 0.852 0.371 0.587 0.148 “Taxon = Taxon No. (Hodges et ul., 1983). ‘N = Number of trials. ‘Aspect = appcararice category: BK, bark-like; DL, drad-leaf-likr; GP, green-plant-like; WC, warningly coloured; MC, mimrtir; BW, black-and-whitr; IJN, unclassified. “Host = larval host categwy: O G , overall generalist; HG, herbareous generalist; HS, herbaceous specialist; WG, woody generalist; WS, woody specialist. 306 1).B. MACLEAN 87 A L characteristics were least acceptable and most acceptable to birds. Based on the classification function coefficients listed in Table 5, combinations that should be least acceptable to birds are in order: ( 1 ) small black-and-white species; (2) small mimetics; ( 3 ) extra large butterflies; (4) extra large bark-like species; (5) mediumsized black-and-white species; (6) extra large mimetics; (7) medium-sized butterflies; and (8) extra large warningly-coloured species. Overall, herbaceous specialist species with any of these size-aspect characteristics should be even less acceptable to birds. Combinations that would be most acceptable to birds are: ( 1 ) large, warninglycoloured species; (2) large, bark-like species; (3) large, dead-leaf-like species; and (4)medium-sized, warningly-coloured species. Overall, woody generalists and specialists with any of these characteristics would be most acceptable to birds. Based on the discriminant function coefficients, other combinations of prey size, aspect, and larval host type would not be strongly selected for or against. Pyrrharctia isabella (47 specimens), Halysidota tessellaris (63 specimens), Spilosoma conqrua (34 specimens), Spilosoma uirginica ( 17 specimens) and Dryocampa rubicunda (56 specimens) were initially placed in the warningly-coloured category for all analyses and yet 93.6, 88.9, 91.2, 94.1 and 83.9 percent respectively of these species were taken. These apparently palatable species, initially classified as warningly-coloured, accounted for the large positive classification function coefficient (6.9) of this trait. Analysis of p r 9 acceptabilip by multiple regression The relationship between the number of a prey species taken and its abundance (expressed by N, the number of specimens of each species tested in the trials) and relative acceptability to birds (as determined by the discriminant analysis) was evaluated by stepwise multiple regression. Arcsine transformed values of the percent taken for 90 species listed in Table6 were chosen as the dependent variable. The square root ( X ’ = sqrt ( X + 0.5)) of the number of specimens used for each species in the trials and the discriminant function coefficients for size, aspect, and larval host (Table 5) were selected as independent variables. All variables were standardized prior to the regression analysis. The results of the regression analysis are given in Table 7 for the six most important single variables and interaction terms. While the regression accounts for less than 25% of the variation of percent taken (R2=0.208), analysis of variance showed it to be significant (F=3.641, P < 0.01). The order ofselection of the variables (given in parentheses) and their standardized partial regression coefficients (Beta) show that size (X,) was the single most important characteristic in determining prey selection. The other variables, in order of selection, were: Size X Host (X,X,), Size X Aspect X Host (X,X,X,), Host (X5),Aspect (X5), and abundance (N) X Aspect (X,X,). The inclusion of two interaction terms early in the analysis indicated that combinations of prey characteristics were better predictors of prey taken than single variables with the exception of size. DISCUSSION Results of this study demonstrate the ability of discriminant analysis to select and rank those characteristics associated with species of Lepidoptera that were most often, or least often, taken by birds during feeding trials. Most characteristics LEPIDOPIERAN PREY CHARACTERISTICS 307 'I'ABLE 7. Summary of stepwise multiple regression analysis of transformed values of percent taken for 90 species of Lepidoptera prey used in the feeding trials. Independent variables were the number of spccimens of each species used in the trials and its discriminant function coefficients for size, aspect, and larval host type. Results are given for only the six most important variables and interaction terms. The order of selection of each variable is given in parentheses Variable X,!, Size ( 1 ) X,, Aspect (5) Xi, Host (4) B -- _____ B S.E F 0.292 0.110 0.156 0.292 0.1 10 0.156 0.100 0.104 0.098 8.41 1.12 2.53 0.102 0.104 0.100 I .04 0.142 0.139 0.101 1.99 -0.164 0.136 2.75 X 2 & N x Aspect (6) X.IX,, Size x Host ( 2 ) XIXJi, Size x Aspect x Host (3) Constant - 0.225 0.021 Multiple R = 0.456 R z = 0.208 S.E. = 0.921 Source DF SS MS F Rrgression Residual 6 83 18.537 70.430 3.089 0.848 3.641** **P < 0.01. were associated with both criterion groups which reflects the fact that few species were either always taken or never taken. Lepidopteran characteristics based on adult size, appearance and larval host type represent a continuum ranging from species with low prey acceptability to ones with high prey acceptability. Any attempt to evaluate the relationship between bird predation and prey characteristics should also take into account the relative abundance of prey species. T h e results of the stepwise multiple regression analysis showed that relative abundance alone was not as important as size and combinations of prey characteristics in determining the number of prey selected by birds. Apparently, birds selected moths and butterflies largely on the basis of size and larval host type regardless of their relative abundance. The stepwise selection of variables showed that abundance was important in determining prey selection only when combined with aspect. Since size was selected as the single most important predictor of the number of prey taken, it was not surprising that small and extra large species were taken much less often than medium-sized species. Small conspicuous species (blackand-white and mimetics) were most often least acceptable to birds, e.g. Desmia funeralis and Ennomos subsignaria. Small mimics of non-lepidoptera were often not taken at all (e.g., Cisseps fulvicollis, a wasp mimic; and Hypoprepia fucosa, a firefly mimic), Small black-and-white species were also highly unacceptable, though in some cases these may actually have been warningly-coloured (e.g., Desmia funeralis) or mimics of bird-droppings (e.g. Cernia cerintha). Small size even reduced the acceptability of species with bark-like apperance, a trait that attracted extremely heavy predation when associated with medium and large sizes. Extra large size was most effectively combined with warning colouration 308 D. B. MACT,E.L\N E T A L . and mimicry and less so with the unclassified butterfly aspect to reduce prey acceptability. However, extra large wing size did not reduce the acceptability of bark-like species which were heavily preyed upon. Prey acceptability was generally highest for medium and large bark-like, dead-leaf-like, and warningly-coloured species. Since birds swallowed more small and medium prey whole, and de-winged more large and extra large prey than expected, large adult wing size may help deter predation by small birds such as chickadees. This warrants further investigation. T h e time and effort required to de-wing a large adult lepidopteran may not be repaid in terms of energy acquired, especially for small- or thin-bodied prey, like many butterflies. Predators might than concentrate on smaller, large-bodied prey that yield more energy because of their shorter handling times. This question of the costs of handling time in prey selection is considered in many optimal foraging models (e.g., Krebs, 1978; Erichsen et al., 1980) and the data reported here suggest that this cost may be an important factor in assessing lepidopteran acceptability to predators. Certainly, there are opportunities for experimental manipulation of this variable in future studies. The relative importance of larval host type as a predictor of prey acceptability (three of the six variables in the regression analysis presented in Table 7 include host) was somewhat surprising since this trait would not seem to be directly ascertainable by predators, based on visual characteristics of adult Lepidoptera. It may be, of course, that the predators in this study had previously learned to associate palatability or unpalatability with many of the specific prey presented, and that this in turn reflected differences in the larval hostplant utilization of these prey. This may be reflected in the interaction terms in Table 7 where host is combined with size and aspect. General plant/herbivore theory suggests that unpalatability in insects will be most often associated with larval specialization on “non-apparent” herbaceous plants (e.g. Feeny, 1975; Futuyma, 1983; Huheey, 1984), and insects in this foodplant category were the least acceptable in the present study. It is also interesting to note that prey in this category were significantly more often picked up and dropped than were prey in any other category, suggesting that olfactory or gustatory cues to unpalatability may have contributed to the relatively low acceptability of these herbaceous specialist prey. “Warning colour” was assigned to many brightly coloured species which were thought to be unpalatable to birds. However, direct evidence that secondary plant chemicals sequestered from host plants provide a degree of protection against avian predators has been established for only a few warningly coloured species, e.g. Danaus spp. (Brower et al., 1968; Brower & Glazier, 1975) arid Euphydryas phaeton (Bowers, 1980). Additionally, some species which do not sequester chemicals may also be unpalatable (Blum, 1981). Recent reviews of the immense literature on chemical defences o finsects include Duffey (1980), Brower (1984) and Bowers ( 1988). The high prey acceptability of some presumed warningly-colourcd species used in the present study raises questions concerning the appropriateness of the LL warning colour” designation in such cases. Four arctiids, (Pyrrharctin isnbella, Spilosoma congrua, S. virginica, and Halysidola tessellaris) , and one saturniid (Dryocampa rubicunda) , were considered warningly-coloured due to their brightly- LEPIDOPTERAN PREY CHARAC1'EKIS'I'ICS 309 coloured wings or spotted abdomens and, in some cases, prior reports of unpalatability (e.g. H. lessellaris to bats (Dunning & Roeder, 1965; Dunning, 1968; Watson, 1980), and Spilosoma species to birds (Rothschild, 1983)). This interesting, if unexpected, result suggests that warning colouration cannot be inferred on the basis of appearance, at least with respect to the avian predators considered here. In the future, some of these species should undoubtedly be classified as dead-leaf cryptics (e.g., P. isahella, H. tessellaris), but others are not clearly assignable to any o f t h e present appearance classes (e.g.,D.rubicunda, both Sflilosoma species), and should be studied further. The following summary attempts to answer the five questions stated in the introduction. Discriminant analysis found satisfactory solutions for 47.7 percent of the bird feeding trials based on prey size, appearance, and larval host type. If only those trials in which one or more prey were left arc considered (2 18), the number of trials in which a satisfactory solution was obtained increases to 76 percent. Based on the sign and magnitude of the mean classification function coefficients derived from the 166 discriminant analyses, those prey characteristics most acceptable to birds were: ( 1 ) large size, (2) bark-like appearance, (3) warning colouration, (4) woody generalist, (5) dead-leaf-like appearance, (6) woody specialist, and ( 7 ) medium size. Prey characteristics least acceptable to birds were: (1) small size, (2) mimicry, ( 3 ) unclassified (butterfly) appearance, (4) herbaceous specialist, (5) black-and-white appearance, (6) extra largc size, and (7) overall generalist feeder. The 166 solutions correctly classified 97.5 percent of the prey specimens used in these trials as either taken or not taken by birds. Combinations or prey characteristics most acceptable to birds were: ( 1 ) large, warningly-coloured species, (2) large, bark-like species, ( 3 ) large, dead-leaf-like species, and (4) medium-sized, warningly-coloured species. Combinations least acceptable to birds were: ( 1 ) small, black-and-white species, (2) small, mimetics, ( 3 ) extra large, butterflies, (4) extra large, bark-like species, (5) medium-sized, black-and-white species, (6) extra large, mimetics, (7) medium-sized, butterflies, and (8) extra large, warningly-coloured species. Except for several large and medium-sized species that may have been mistakenly placed in the warninglycoloured appearance category, the probabilities derived from the discriminant analyses accurately predicted the number of trials in which species were taken by birds. Based on our results, we feel that discriminant analysis offers a n excellent means of evaluating the many complex behavioural and ecological variables present in predator-prey interactions. 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