RODNEY DISTRICT COUNCIL Wastewater Master Plans in Rodney Area Volume 5: Northeast Rodney Wastewater Master Plan March 2010 HG Project No. 1014-122862-99 HG Document No. R001Dv2-WSL-AK122862-99 HARRISON GRIERSON CONSULTANTS LIMITED Document Control Record Client RODNEY DISTRICT COUNCIL Project Wastewater Master Plans in Rodney Area HG Project No. 1014-122862-99 HG Document No. R001Dv2-WSL-AK122862-99 Document Volume 5: Northeast Rodney Wastewater Master Plan ISSUE AND REVISION RECORD Date of Issue March 2010 Status Final Originator Ian Ho - Senior Process Engineer Stephen Finnemore – Senior Principal Reviewed Stephen Finnemore - Senior Principal Approved for Issue Stephen Finnemore - Senior Principal Office of Origin Auckland Telephone 09 917 5000 Facsimile 09 917 5001 Email [email protected] HARRISON GRIERSON CONSULTANTS LIMITED Page i RODNEY DISTRICT COUNCIL Wastewater Master Plans in Rodney Area Volume 5: Northeast Rodney Wastewater Master Plan March 2010 HG Project No. 1014-122862-99 HG Document No. R001Dv2-WSL-AK122862-99 CONTENTS Page Volume 1: Summary Document Volume 2: Wastewater Projects in Helensville Volume 3: Wastewater Projects in Kumeu-Huapai Volume 4: Wastewater Projects in Muriwai Volume 5: Wastewater Projects in Northeast Rodney 1.0 INTRODUCTION 1 2.0 STUDY AREA - NORTHEAST RODNEY 1 3.0 LIMITATIONS 2 APPENDICES Appendix Appendix Appendix Appendix Appendix 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5 Mahurangi Wastewater Master Plan – Project Data Summary Mahurangi Wastewater Strategy – Population Sensitivity Analysis Treatment and Disposal Infrastructure Constraints Assessment Northeast Rodney Wastewater Strategy Northeast Rodney Wastewater Master Plan Volume 6: Wastewater Projects in Omaha Volume 7: Wastewater Projects in Waiwera Volume 8: Wastewater Projects in Warkworth Volume 9 Wastewater Projects – Wellsford HARRISON GRIERSON CONSULTANTS LIMITED Page ii Wastewater Master Plans in Rodney Area Volume 5: Northeast Rodney Wastewater Master Plan 1.0 March 2010 HG Project No. 1014-122862-99 INTRODUCTION This volume is a compilation of the various studies under the Northeast Rodney Wastewater Master Planning Project. A list of all water and wastewater master planning reports and conceptual designs is presented in Appendix 1.1 in Volume 1. 2.0 STUDY AREA - NORTHEAST RODNEY The Northeast Rodney region covers approximately 45,000 hectares and encompasses a number of townships and villages including Warkworth, SnellsAlgies, Omaha, Point Wells, Matakana, Leigh and others. This master plan was undertaken in several stages: historical studies review, population projection, capacity and constraints assessment, strategic options assessment and master planning. The master plans were issued to Rodney District Council in mid-2009 and the project is on hold pending further inputs from various stakeholders. The purposes of this master planning study include: • Comprehensive review of historical studies and investigations • Assessment of capacity bottlenecks and other constraints • Evaluation of various wastewater servicing options (treatment and disposal) for the Northeast Rodney area including the options providing centralised treatment and effluent disposal • Developing the three short-listed options into the master plans for stakeholder consultation. In addition, there are other engineering studies in the area. Refer to “Volume 6 – Wastewater Projects in Omaha” and “Volume 8 – Wastewater Projects in Warkworth” for details. Harrison Grierson also undertook several investigations of wastewater pumping stations (e.g. Martins Bay) and outfall capacity assessment and replacement programme. Below is a summary of the reports under the Northeast Rodney Wastewater Strategy project. HARRISON GRIERSON CONSULTANTS LIMITED HG Document No. R001Dv2-WSL-AK122862-99 Page 1 Wastewater Master Plans in Rodney Area Volume 5: Northeast Rodney Wastewater Master Plan March 2010 HG Project No. 1014-122862-99 Mahurangi Wastewater Master Plan – Project Data Summary (Sept 2008) This report summarises the historical studies and investigations for wastewater collection, conveyance, treatment and effluent disposal in the Mahurangi and Northeast Rodney area. Mahurangi Wastewater Strategy – Population Sensitivity Analysis (Sept 2008) This report presents a population growth assessment based on the district-wide growth model. Mahurangi Wastewater Master Plan – Treatment and Disposal Infrastructure Constraints Assessment (April 2009) This report is an assessment of wastewater infrastructure capacities and constraints based on the projected wastewater flow data. The report also reviews and identifies any information gaps. It was concluded that the three wastewater treatment plants (Warkworth, Snells-Algies and Omaha) in the area will need to be upgraded for higher capacity and/or higher treated effluent quality. Northeast Rodney Wastewater Strategy (July 2009) This strategy report examines a total of fourteen service options for the Northeast Rodney area. The details of the options have been developed to a conceptual level. Based on the cost comparison and risks analysis, three service options were short listed for further consideration in the master planning stage. Northeast Rodney Wastewater Master Plan (Final Draft Aug 09) This report presents a draft master plan for the three short listed service options. Project timeline and capital programmes for each option are presented to highlight the key milestones and main expenditure items. 3.0 LIMITATIONS The reports described in this volume have been prepared for the particular scope described to Harrison Grierson by Rodney District Council. The extent of the assessments was limited to the scope of work agreed between Rodney District Council and Harrison Grierson Consultants Limited. No responsibility is accepted by Harrison Grierson Consultants Limited or its directors, servants, agents, staff or employees for the accuracy of information provided by third parties and/or the use of any part of this report in any other context or for any other purposes. HARRISON GRIERSON CONSULTANTS LIMITED HG Document No. R001Dv2-WSL-AK122862-99 Page 2 APPENDIX 5.1 Mahurangi Wastewater Master Plan – Project Data Summary (Sept 2008) RODNEY DISTRICT COUNCIL Mahurangi Wastewater Master Plan Work Package 1: Project Data Summary September 2008 HG Ref 1014-125641-01 Doc Ref rep-rdc-CE005V2-ich-gja HARRISON GRIERSON CONSULTANTS LIMITED Document Control Record Client RODNEY DISTRICT COUNCIL Project Mahurangi Wastewater Master Plan HG Ref. 1014-125641-01 Doc Ref. rep-rdc-CE005V1-ich-gja Document Work Package 1: Project Data Summary ISSUE AND REVISION RECORD Status Final Date of Issue September 2008 Originator Ian Ho - Process Engineer Grant Anderson – Environmental Scientist Reviewed Ash Deshpande - Associate Approved for Issue Stephen Finnemore - Senior Principal Office of Origin Auckland Telephone 09 917 5000 Facsimile 09 917 5001 Email [email protected] HARRISON GRIERSON CONSULTANTS LIMITED Page i RODNEY DISTRICT COUNCIL Mahurangi Wastewater Master Plan Work Package 1: Project Data Summary September 2008 HG Ref 1014-125641-01 Doc Ref rep-rdc-CE005V2-ich-gja CONTENTS Page PROJECT SCOPE 1 1.0 INTRODUCTION 1 2.0 WARKWORTH 1 2.1 PREVIOUS INVESTIGATIONS 2 2.2 CATCHMENT STATUS 8 3.0 SNELLS BEACH / ALGIES BAY 3.1 PREVIOUS INVESTIGATIONS 10 3.2 CATCHMENT STATUS 13 4.0 MARTINS BAY / MAHURANGI EAST 14 4.1 PREVIOUS INVESTIGATIONS 14 4.2 CATCHMENT STATUS 15 5.0 SANDPIT 15 5.1 PREVIOUS INVESTIGATIONS 16 5.2 CATCHMENT STATUS 16 6.0 MATAKANA 16 6.1 PREVIOUS INVESTIGATIONS 16 6.2 CATCHMENT STATUS 17 7.0 POINT WELLS 18 7.1 PREVIOUS INVESTIGATIONS 18 7.2 CATCHMENT STATUS 19 8.0 OMAHA 20 8.1 PREVIOUS INVESTIGATIONS 20 8.2 CATCHMENT STATUS 21 9.0 LEIGH 23 9.1 PREVIOUS INVESTIGATIONS 23 9.2 CATCHMENT STATUS 23 10.0 LIMITATIONS 23 10.1 GENERAL 23 10 APPENDICES Appendix 1 Executive Summary for Selected Reports HARRISON GRIERSON CONSULTANTS LIMITED Page ii Rodney District Council Mahurangi Wastewater Master Plan – Project Data Summary September 2008 HG Ref 1014-125641-01 PROJECT SCOPE The project scope for this study was defined and agreed between Rodney District Council and Harrison Grierson Consultants Limited. This report presented a summary of previous wastewater investigations and monitoring reports undertaken as well as a review of the current catchment status for various settlements in the Northeast Rodney area (Mahurangi region). 1.0 INTRODUCTION Harrison Grierson is commissioned by Rodney District Council to undertake the Mahurangi Wastewater Master Plan. The outcome of this strategic study will devise solutions for reticulation, treatment and disposal in the Mahurangi region. The region encompasses the following townships and communities: Warkworth, Snells Beach, Algies Bay, Mahurangi East (Martins Bay), Sandpit, Matakana, Omaha and Point Wells. Leigh is also included as this community may be connected to a reticulation system some time in the future. Due to the nature and scale of this project, this master plan is undertaken in a number of logical sequenced tasks. This will provide a sustainable and practical solution in a cost effective manner without major delays or hold-ups. Over the years, a number of small and large projects have been commissioned by Council for the study area. These ranged from growth feasibility studies, strategic investigations to detailed engineering and construction projects. The purpose of this report is: • to summarise previous studies and investigations associated with the sewerage infrastructure in the Mahurangi region • to review current status of the catchment in terms of resource consents and Rodney District Council’s long term plan (LTP). It is envisaged that this document will provide essential reference points in the future stages of the Master Plan Study. 2.0 WARKWORTH Warkworth is a major township in the study area. Sewage is collected via a gravity network and pumped to the Warkworth Wastewater Treatment Plant. Treated effluent is then discharged to the nearby Mahurangi River which flows into the Mahurangi Harbour. HARRISON GRIERSON CONSULTANTS LIMITED Page 1 Rodney District Council Mahurangi Wastewater Master Plan – Project Data Summary September 2008 HG Ref 1014-125641-01 The treatment plant is currently being upgraded by the installation of peak flow treatment system. The aim is to improve the treatment performance during high flow events as a result of storm conditions. 2.1 PREVIOUS INVESTIGATIONS GHD (May 2004), Warkworth Wastewater System – Inflow and Infiltration Assessment Report. Brief Description of Contents This report examined the inflow and infiltration in various sub-catchments in Warkworth. The study included flow monitoring, dry weather flow analysis, hydrologic model calibration and determination of inflow/filtration assessment parameters. Their findings showed that areas around the Palmer Pump Station, Lilburn Pump Station and Alnwick Street suffers from significant groundwater infiltration. Most sub-catchments suffered from high stormwater inflow which caused high wet weather flow peaks when rains. The report recommended several conceptual I/I reduction methods including inspection, sewer sealing and other rehabilitation work. H2Q (Dec 2005), Warkworth Wastewater System Performance Report. Draft Brief Description of Contents This report was a review of the previous reticulation modelling work by Opus and GHD. The author examined the reticulation performance based on an updated MOUSE model. The modelling results showed that there was no dry weather overflow, but there were spills along the reticulation network. The recommendations included model validation with revised information and survey data. Tri-Aqua Solutions (December 2006) Report for McKinney, Earlsway and Woodcock Road Block subdivisions Warkworth. Preliminary Investigation for Low Pressure Sewer System. Brief Description of Contents This report examined a number of options for connecting these new subdivision blocks via low pressure sewer system. assessed. A number of connection options were The flow was estimated based on 225L/d per capita and an occupancy ratio of 2.5. HARRISON GRIERSON CONSULTANTS LIMITED Page 2 Rodney District Council Mahurangi Wastewater Master Plan – Project Data Summary September 2008 HG Ref 1014-125641-01 It was concluded that all three blocks can be serviced by low pressure sewer system. Part of the subdivision blocks could only be serviced by low pressure sewer system due to its topography. GHD (July 2007) Report for Warkworth Wastewater Strategy. Draft Brief Description of Contents This report investigated and compared the future reticulation options to service Warkworth. Low pressure sewer system was recommended to connect to the new subdivisions. Three options were discussed in this report. The first option was to provide a separate pressure sewer network to service the new growth area. The second option was to upgrade the gravity sewer network as the pressure sewer network discharges into the end of the gravity sewer network. The third option was to undergo progressive abandonment of gravity sewer network and replace with pressure sewer network. The options were then taken to modelling and costing which was not completed at the time. GHD (August 2007) Report for Warkworth Wastewater Network Modelling. Model Development. Draft Brief Description of Contents This report presented a modelling exercise and preliminary results for the wastewater network at Warkworth. The modelling work was an extension of the H2Q model with refined GIS data and survey information. This report is a progress report of the model development. It is understood that the project is currently in progress. URS & Environmex NZ (June 2005), Warkworth WWTP Wastewater Treatment Upgrade & Disposal Options Brief Description of Contents This report considered the infrastructure requirements at the WWTP between 2004 and 2044, where the design PE increases from 3550 to 8800. The infrastructure upgrade review covers short-term upgrades, long-term upgrades and plant relocation (to Snells-Algies). The infrastructure requirements examined in the report included reticulation, treatment plant and a disposal (or transfer) pipeline. This report looked at various options of replacing the existing sewer network with low pressure system. As part of this report, a number of short-term and long-term upgrade options were investigated. HARRISON GRIERSON CONSULTANTS LIMITED The recommended short term Page 3 Rodney District Council Mahurangi Wastewater Master Plan – Project Data Summary September 2008 HG Ref 1014-125641-01 plant upgrade option was the installation of a peak flow treatment system for alleviating hydraulic overloading that occurs during storm flows. The long term upgrade options considered in this study were the FAST system and membrane bioreactor (MBR) /sequencing batch reactor (SBR) upgrade in parallel with the peak flow treatment system, however no recommendations were made. A disposal option of conveying sewage or treated effluent to Snells-Algies for treatment / disposal was investigated. Rodney District Council (November 2005) Amendments to Warkworth Wastewater Treatment Plant Resource Consent Renewal Applications Brief Description of Contents This document summarised the findings of a number of environmental and upgrade investigations. A upgrade and decision timetable was also presented. The resource consent renewal was successful and the renewed resource consent expires in 2011. HGCL (December 2006), Warkworth WwTP Peak Flow Treatment Upgrade – Concept Review Brief Description of Contents This concept review was a review of the short term upgrade options presented in previous studies. This study also evaluates the upgrade requirements in the short term for installing the peak flow treatment process in parallel to the oxidation ditch. The peak flow treatment process will improve the plant to handle high flows associated from rainfall events as excess flow is diverted from the biological process to avoid process upsets. This would improve the discharge effluent quality during and after rainfall events. The proposed process layout from this study was different to the one presented in the previous reports by URS / Enviromex. An upstream buffer storage and peak flow treatment UV unit were added to the peak flow treatment process to provide robustness to the process. HGCL (September 2007), Warkworth WWTP Upgrade: Scoping Report Part 1 Brief Description of Contents This report presented a review of plant equipment for the peak flow treatment upgrade following the concept review. HARRISON GRIERSON CONSULTANTS LIMITED The review was undertaken at a Page 4 Rodney District Council Mahurangi Wastewater Master Plan – Project Data Summary September 2008 HG Ref 1014-125641-01 preliminary design level, from which information was subsequently incorporated into detailed engineering. The review was divided into two areas: process engineering and mechanical engineering. The process engineering review identified the upgrade requirements to meet the process changes and modifications. The mechanical engineering review evaluated the upgrade requirements in more details to satisfy the mechanical engineering aspects. The upgrade requirements identified were inlet pump station upgrade, selector hydraulic control upgrade, new sludge wasting mechanism and new sludge thickener for the existing biological process. The new peak flow treatment process consisted of Actiflo process, PFT buffer tank, Chemical storage and dosing and associated civil and mechanical works. The findings formed part of the detailed engineering design. HGCL (March 2008), Warkworth WWTP Upgrade: Scoping Report Part 2 Brief Description of Contents This report summarised the process review of the oxidation ditch process at Warkworth WwTP. A biological process model was built to assess the potential capacity of the oxidation ditch. The modelling was based on the influent and effluent sampling data collected in September and October 2007. The capacity estimation was required to determine the future upgrade requirements of the oxidation ditch process. The calibrated process model was tested with a number of scenarios. It was found that with some plant optimisation, the oxidation ditch process could treat up to 1100m³/day which is similar to the average dry weather flow expected from the Area of Benefit of Warkworth in 2017. NIWA (Feb 2005), Modelling of Viral Dispersion and deactivation within Mahurangi Estuary Brief Description of Contents The report discussed findings of a virus distribution modelling study which examined the concentration of virus at the marine farms in the Mahurangi River downstream to the treated effluent discharge from the Warkworth WWTP. The modelling was based on the virus concentration prediction under a number of scenarios. It examined the effects of increased discharge due to population growth, continuous discharge, freshwater inflow into the estuary and deactivation rate HARRISON GRIERSON CONSULTANTS LIMITED Page 5 Rodney District Council Mahurangi Wastewater Master Plan – Project Data Summary September 2008 HG Ref 1014-125641-01 variations on the virus concentration at a number of downstream locations from the effluent discharge point. From the modelling, the predicted viral concentration at the oyster farms was higher when the wastewater discharge was staged (intermittent), of higher discharge quantity and higher river flows which result in lower deactivation time. VKCEE(April 2005), Warkworth WWTP - Virus Risk Assessment Brief Description of Contents This virus risk assessment examined the public health risk in terms of recreational water users and oyster farms downstream to the effluent discharge point. The associated risk was evaluated on the basis of consumption of shellfish and contact from recreational activities. The virus risk assessment was developed on the basis of NIWA's viral model. The report presented a number of discharge flow and virus concentration scenarios for the risk assessment. The risk assessment was divided into risk associated with shellfish consumption and contact and ingestion as a result of recreation use. The assessment identified that the staged discharge regime posed a higher public health risk due to higher virus concentrations in shorter time periods, particularly during high flows. The report recommended a 4 log virus removal target to minimise the public health risk associated with shellfish consumption and recreational use. The findings of both NIWA and VKCEE reports were incorporated in the resource consent application and the proposed 4 log removal target was incorporated into the resource consent issued. The resource consent specified a 4 log virus removal in the viral monitoring requirement section. Tonkin & Taylor (August 2005) Warkworth Wastewater Treatment Plant Discharge Receiving Environment Review. Draft Brief Description of Contents This was a review of the receiving environment to determine the effect of the effluent discharge from the Warkworth wastewater treatment plant. The report concluded that the effluent discharge has little broad-scale effect on water quality in the downstream estuary. This was due to generally good effluent quality (compared with the Mahurangi River water quality) and dilution in the river. The report indicated that at very low river flow, the river water dilution may not be sufficient for reducing ammonia below toxic level. HARRISON GRIERSON CONSULTANTS LIMITED It also Page 6 Rodney District Council Mahurangi Wastewater Master Plan – Project Data Summary September 2008 HG Ref 1014-125641-01 indicated that a continuous discharge regime would be beneficial for reducing risk of the Cowan Bay oyster farm exposing to virus. Diffuse Sources Ltd (Nov 07) Warkworth Wastewater Treatment Plant: Receiving Environment Monitoring August 06 to July 07 Brief Description of Contents The monitoring report examined the water quality at two sites to assess the effect of the treated effluent discharge from Warkworth WwTP as well as monitoring of the shellfish near the Cowan Bay oyster farm. The monitoring report concluded that the discharge did not contribute to any significant effect on the water quality in the Mahurangi River estuary. The catchment runoff had significant impacts on the microbiological water quality in the harbour particularly during and after rainfall events and the shellfish quality at the oyster farm was good except during and after rainfall events. URS (May 2005) Warkworth Wastewater Strategy – Effluent Irrigation – Draft Report Brief Description of Contents The irrigation report undertook a GIS data assessment of potential land irrigation sites and a preliminary assessment of land requirements based on wastewater flow and loads data. irrigation area Two final effluent disposal options were assessed; one was disposing all of the final effluent all year round and the other option was disposing final effluent during summer months. The estimated nett land disposal area requirement for full-year round operation would be in the order of 400ha or more because of the allowance of wet weather flow while the area requirement was estimated to be 25 to 50 ha for partial summer flow. The application rate used was 6.6mm/day in dry weather and 1mm/day for wet weather. The report adopted a cost rate of $2550,000/ha for pop-up irrigation system. The estimated capital cost for the 400ha land irrigation system (excluding conveyance pipeline) was up to $20M while the estimated cost for 50ha effluent disposal system was $2.5M. It was reported that one of the advantages associated with the partial flow disposal was potential beneficial reuse at golf course or sport turfs. The report concluded that a comprehensive site selection process and field investigation would be required after Council reached a decision of the land disposal mechanism. URS (Nov 2005) Warkworth Wastewater Strategy Stage 2 Brief Description of Contents HARRISON GRIERSON CONSULTANTS LIMITED Page 7 Rodney District Council Mahurangi Wastewater Master Plan – Project Data Summary September 2008 HG Ref 1014-125641-01 The report was a stage 2 of the May 2005 irrigation report. The report further examined a number of potential irrigation areas at a desktop study. Three effluent disposal options were examined, full flow all year round land disposal of final effluent, partial flow summer months land disposal of final effluent on unmodified soil and partial flow summer months land disposal of final effluent on modified soil. Three sites were identified for full flow all year round land disposal of final effluent. It was estimated that the long term acceptance rate could be 2 to 3mm/day for winter months and 5 to 7 mm/day for summer months. The estimated cost for a 8.5km rising main to convey final effluent from Warkworth WwTP to the nearest site was $2.6M. Three sites were identified for summer flow disposal of final effluent on unmodified soil option. The assessment of the un-modified soil option was based on similar application rates for the full-year round land disposal of final effluent. The estimated nett disposal area required was 24ha in total. The estimated cost for a 2.5km rising main to convey final effluent from Warkworth WwTP to the nearest site was $0.75M and the estimated land disposal system cost was $1.8M. Three sport turfs of total area 16.6ha were identified for the option of summer flow land disposal of final effluent on modified soil. Because higher application rate of 10mm/day was assumed, the estimated nett disposal area of 16.5ha were identified. The estimated cost for a 3.5km rising main to convey final effluent from Warkworth WwTP to the nearest site was $1.05M and the estimated land disposal system cost was $2.2M. 2.2 CATCHMENT STATUS Warkworth sewage catchment has undergone significant changes in recent years. Low pressure reticulation will gradually be installed across the catchment area for reducing inflow and infiltration. Reticulation network optimisation and modelling are currently in progress for reducing inflow and infiltration and network overflows from the existing network. Moreover, the treatment plant is being upgraded to improve its ability to handle high flow events associated with wet weather patterns. This upgrade provides a parallel treatment to the excess flow while the biological treatment process (the oxidation ditch and clarifiers) can remain in operation. This is expected to improve the discharge effluent quality during rainfall events. Various receiving environment monitoring studies indicated that the wastewater treatment plant does not have a detrimental effect to the receiving environment (Mahurangi Harbour/Estuary) as the catchment run-off has a more significant impact on the water quality of the receiving environment. However, the Tonkin HARRISON GRIERSON CONSULTANTS LIMITED Page 8 Rodney District Council Mahurangi Wastewater Master Plan – Project Data Summary September 2008 HG Ref 1014-125641-01 Taylor study did indicated that the dilution of ammonia in the river may not be sufficient during significant drought periods. Resource Consent of Wastewater Discharge The current resource consent expires on 31 December 2011. To discharge into the Mahurangi River 1500m3/day on a continual dry weather basis and up to 8000m3/day during peak wet weather events. Note: The ARC previously considered this consent to be a temporary measure and there was a preference to cease the discharge of treated wastewater to the Mahurangi River as the preferred method on expiry of this consent. This has since changed since new technologies have been identified, and it proven that treated wastewater can be of a suitable standard to be discharged to the river. Capital Expenditure Programme in the Long Term Plan RDC has made the following financial plans to upgrade the sewerage infrastructure. Table 1: Warkworth Wastewater Capital Expenditure Programme from LTP Items Est. Total between 2006 - 2016($) Example Projects (Timeframe) Wastewater Treatment Plant Upgrade $3.5M Peak Flow Treatment Upgrade (2006-2009) New reticulation /pipeline $3.1M Overflow Control (2007-2009) McKinney Vallye/Woodcocks Trunk (2007-2010) Renewal $1.6M Renewal Key Sewerage Infrastructure Capacities From the recent investigations, the estimated capacities of the key sewerage infrastructure in the Warkworth area are summarised in Table 2. The capacity figures of local reticulation network or individual plant items are not included. Table 2: Key Sewerage Infrastructure Capacity Estimates of Warkworth Area Warkworth HARRISON GRIERSON CONSULTANTS LIMITED Infrastructure Capacity Lilburn Pump Station ~375m³/h1 Low Pressure Sewer In Progress2 Wastewater Treatment Plant 1100m³/day Page 9 Rodney District Council Mahurangi Wastewater Master Plan – Project Data Summary September 2008 HG Ref 1014-125641-01 Table 2: Key Sewerage Infrastructure Capacity Estimates of Warkworth Area Infrastructure Capacity Note: 3.0 1. The capacity estimate of the rising mains at the Lilburn pump station is based on the flow data estimates and rising main theoretical calculations. 2. The design of the low pressure sewer connection to the treatment plant is in progress. 3. Capacities of local reticulation network and individual plant items are not included. SNELLS BEACH / ALGIES BAY Snells Beach and Algies Bay are located east of Warkworth. The wastewater is currently collected via a conventional system before it is pumped to SnellsAlgies Wastewater Treatment Plant. Cornel Circle PS and There are two terminal pump stations, Hamatana PS. The final effluent from Snells-Algies Wastewater Treatment Plant is then pumped to an ocean outfall. Martins Bay (Mahurangi East) is also connected to the sewer network via the Martins Bay pump station in a campground. 3.1 PREVIOUS INVESTIGATIONS Opus (Oct 2002) Snells Beach and Algies Bay Wastewater Review Brief Description of Contents This report reviewed the studies been carried out for wastewater services in the area and identified a number of further studies. The issues in the reticulation network reported were inflow/infiltration problem during wet weather events, sea water infiltration and the need for upgrade to the Bridgitte pumping station upgrade. The report also identified a number of new areas for connection. They included: Martins Bay, Willjames, Goodall, Governor Grey and Muncaster. The report also summarised a number of earlier investigations, one of which stated that the disposal pumps can deliver up to 41L/s. Opus (Sept 2003) Muncaster and Governor Grey Sewerage System Detailed Scheme Report Brief Description of Contents The report discussed details of the upgrade scheme for Muncaster and Governor Grey areas. The scheme involved construction of a new pump station (Sunhurst pump station) and a rising main for collecting sewage from the Governor Grey area. The rising main would discharge into a gravity main which HARRISON GRIERSON CONSULTANTS LIMITED Page 10 Rodney District Council Mahurangi Wastewater Master Plan – Project Data Summary September 2008 HG Ref 1014-125641-01 collects sewage from the Muncaster valley. The flow would then discharge into one of the terminal pump stations (Hamatana PS). The proposed design of the Sunhurst pump station consisted of two pumps in duty/assist configuration. The duty pump would deliver 13L/s and two pumps would deliver up to 16.5L/s. The Hamatana PS pumps were sized for 23L/s at 9m head for one pump running and 33L/s at 11m head for two pumps in operation. HGCL (July 2007) Alexander Road Sewage Pump Station: Stage 1 Catchment Study Brief Description of Contents The pump station at Alexander Road in Algies Bay was constructed in 1982. This pump station receives wastewater from Algies Bay and Martins Bay (Mahurangi East). The rising main had a number of failure reports, and hence this study examined a number of upgrade and renewal options of the pump station and rising main. The design average flow and peak flow of the pump station were 10 and 50L/s respectively. The study concluded that the capacity upgrade of pumps and rising main is not required and that a condition assessment of the rising main to be conducted to determine the upgrade timetable. Enviromex (Sept 2006) Snells-Algies WwTP Operation Manual. Draft Brief Description of Contents This is a plant operation manual. capacity of various equipment. It describes the plant operation and the The treatment process consists of an influent flow splitting chamber followed by two aerated lagoons in parallel and two oxidation ponds in series prior to ocean outfall. The capacity of each aerated lagoon was quoted 3200 capita equivalent. The oxidation ponds have a total volume of 20,200m³. The outfall discharge pump is rated at 30L/s. HGCL (Dec 2007) Snells WWTP Outfall Effluent Rising Main Replacement Options: Assessment Brief Description of Contents This letter report examined the required size for upgrading this outfall rising main. The 200NB asbestos concrete rising main had suffered from a number of failures. The assessment included a number of scenarios that included continuous discharge, peak flow balancing and tidal discharge. HARRISON GRIERSON CONSULTANTS LIMITED Page 11 Rodney District Council Mahurangi Wastewater Master Plan – Project Data Summary September 2008 HG Ref 1014-125641-01 The preliminary estimated peak wet weather flow from a high growth scenario is expected to be in the order of 24,400m³/d (including both Warkworth and Snells-Algies catchments). By excluding the flow from Warkworth catchment in this outfall pipe, the estimated peak wet weather flow is approximately 8,900m³/d. As the decision to include Warkworth catchment in this outfall rising main was still pending in December 2007, the proposed solution was that a 355mmOD rising main size to be considered for servicing only the Snells & Algies catchment and this would increase to 400mmOD if the Warkworth catchment is included. HGCL (Mar 2008) Snells WWTP Outfall Effluent Rising Main Replacement Options: Assessment Brief Description of Contents This was a continuation of December 2007 study. A total of 18 scenarios were examined for determining the optimum size of the outfall rising main. The report recommended that a 400mmOD section to be used for replacing the failed section at the Lifeways Ministries Trust property as this section allows flexibility for the strategic decision regarding long term wastewater treatment of the Warkworth and Snells-Algies catchments. The options considered a peak flow figure approximately 400m³/h. Diffuse Sources Ltd (April 07) Snells-Algies Wastewater Treatment Plant: Receiving Environment Monitoring September 05 to March 07 Brief Description of Contents The monitoring report examined the effect of the treated effluent discharge from Snells Algies WwTP on the near-shore microbiological water quality, shellfish quality, off-shore water quality and microbiological water quality at Martins Bay. It was concluded that the microbiological indicators in the water and shellfish from the vicinity of the outfall did not show any signs of impacts from the treated effluent discharge. The water quality (faecal coliform levels) at both near shore and off shore sites meet the Ministry for Environment (MfE) guidelines for shellfish gathering. The off-shore water quality was found to be of similar standards to three other ARC’s coastal monitoring sites. The overall water quality was good. The water quality in Martins Bay bathing beach was found to be variable and this is probably due to rainfall and run-off. HARRISON GRIERSON CONSULTANTS LIMITED Page 12 Rodney District Council Mahurangi Wastewater Master Plan – Project Data Summary 3.2 September 2008 HG Ref 1014-125641-01 CATCHMENT STATUS It is intended that two nearby communities, Mahurangi East and Sandpit will be included in the catchment of the Snell-Algies Wastewater Treatment Plant. Part of Mahurangi East is already included in the catchment while Sandpit will be connected in the future. New connections in the Snells Beach area will be made for more dwellings. From the O&M manual, the estimated capacity of the aerated lagoons is 3200. The plant will require a major upgrade to increase its capacity for the projected incoming loads. Wastewater Discharge Resource Consent The discharge consent (#24748) expires on 31 December 2011. The consent allows the use of the existing pipeline to discharge effluent to the sea. Capital Expenditure Programme in the Long Term Plan RDC has made the following financial plans to upgrade the sewerage infrastructure. Table 3: Snells-Algies Wastewater Capital Expenditure Programme from LTP Items Wastewater Treatment Plant Upgrade New reticulation /pipeline Renewal Est. Total between 2006 - 2016($) Example Projects (Timeframe) $3.5M Plant Upgrade (2008-2011) - - $1.3M Renewal Key Sewerage Infrastructure Capacities The estimated capacities of the key sewerage infrastructure in the Snells-Algies area from the recent investigations are summarised in Table 4. The capacity figures of local reticulation network or individual plant items are not included. Table 4: Key Sewerage Infrastructure Capacity Estimates of Snells-Algies Area Infrastructure Capacity Snells-Algies Cornel Circle PS Not Mentioned1 Hamatana PS 33L/s2 Wastewater Treatment Plant 3200PE Outfall Disposal 41L/s (2002) 397m³/h (2008) HARRISON GRIERSON CONSULTANTS LIMITED Page 13 Rodney District Council Mahurangi Wastewater Master Plan – Project Data Summary September 2008 HG Ref 1014-125641-01 Table 4: Key Sewerage Infrastructure Capacity Estimates of Snells-Algies Area Infrastructure Capacity Note: 1. 4.0 The capacity estimate of the rising mains at Cornel Circle PS and Hamatana PS 2. The design of the low pressure sewer connection to the treatment plant is in progress. 3. Capacities of local reticulation network and individual plant items are not included. MARTINS BAY / MAHURANGI EAST Currently sewage is collected at the Martins Bay pump station before it is pumped to the Algies Bay reticulation network (Willjames Ave PS and Alexander Road PS). Wastewater is conveyed to the terminal pump station (Cornel Circle PS) before it is discharged into the Snells-Algies Wastewater Treatment Plant. 4.1 PREVIOUS INVESTIGATIONS HGCL (April 2007) Martins Bay Pump Station Emergency Storage Tank: Preliminary Design Report Brief Description of Contents This report set out the design of an emergency storage tank for the pump station at the campground in Martins Bay. A fibreglass tank was proposed with odour venting set-up to minimise odour accumulation. HGCL (August 2007) Scandrett Road, Martins Bay Gravity Sewer Replacement – Options Assessment Brief Description of Contents This report examined the replacement options of a gravity sewer between Scandrett Road and Willjames Pump Station. found to be in a very poor condition. The gravity sewer section was This gravity sewer also receives sewage from the Martins Bay Pump Station. The study examined a number of options to replace this 1.4km sewer. A number of options were examined which included directional drilling replacement, open trenching replacement and bypass arrangement. After considering the costs and risk issues, this study recommended the gravity sewer to be replaced with a new 150NB sewer with a combination of open trenching and directional drilling. HGCL (June 2008) Martins Bay Pump Station Upgrade Brief Description of Contents HARRISON GRIERSON CONSULTANTS LIMITED Page 14 Rodney District Council Mahurangi Wastewater Master Plan – Project Data Summary September 2008 HG Ref 1014-125641-01 Harrison Grierson was recently commissioned to undertake a preliminary design of the pump station. A recent draw-down test indicated that the existing pump station has capacity of 12.3L/s (single pump). The pump station is designed to pump a maximum flow of 14.3L/s (PWWF). It was stated that the selected pump will deliver flow up to 18.5L/s. 4.2 CATCHMENT STATUS The area is connected to the Snell-Algies wastewater treatment plant. The scheduled wastewater infrastructure upgrades will require an increase of the conveyance capacity to the treatment plant. Capital Expenditure Programme in the Long Term Plan RDC has made the following financial plans to upgrade the sewerage infrastructure. Table 5: Mahurangi East Wastewater Capital Expenditure Programme from LTP Items New reticulation /pipeline Renewals Est. Total between 2006 - 2016($) Example Projects (Timeframe) $0.4M Pipeline and Pump Station (2006-8) - - Key Sewerage Infrastructure Capacities The estimated capacities of the key sewerage infrastructure in the Martins Bay area from the recent investigations are summarised in Table 6. The capacity figures of local reticulation network or individual plant items are not included. Table 6: Key Sewerage Infrastructure Capacity Estimates of Mahurangi East Area Infrastructure Capacity Mahurangi East / Martins Bay Martins Bay PS 14.3L/s Treatment System - Note: 1. 5.0 Capacities of local reticulation network and individual plant items are not included. SANDPIT Sandpit is a small area northeast to Snells-Algies. It is currently not connected to any community wastewater treatment plant. It is understood that Council intends to connect this area to the wastewater treatment facility in Snell-Algies in future. HARRISON GRIERSON CONSULTANTS LIMITED Page 15 Rodney District Council Mahurangi Wastewater Master Plan – Project Data Summary 5.1 September 2008 HG Ref 1014-125641-01 PREVIOUS INVESTIGATIONS No previous report received. 5.2 CATCHMENT STATUS The wastewater infrastructure of this catchment is under planning at present. Capital Expenditure Programme in the Long Term Plan Under the current long term plan (2006-2016), there is no specific allowance for connecting Sandpit to the Snells-Algies wastewater treatment plant. 6.0 MATAKANA Matakana is a community located northeast of Warkworth. The wastewater treatment is currently collected in septic tank system followed by central collection system to convey to a wetland system for further treatment. Council has recently commissioned preliminary design of the low pressure sewer network connection for Matakana. The sewage will be collected and pumped to Omaha WwTP. 6.1 PREVIOUS INVESTIGATIONS HGCL (April 2007) Matakana Wastewater Servicing Strategy: Conceptual Design Report Brief Description of Contents The Matakana wastewater treatment system is located on a leasehold site and is understood that the lease will not be renewed when it expires. This report was commissioned to undertake a conceptual design for a low pressure sewer network to convey the sewage to the Omaha WwTP. The projected peak flow of Matakana is 5.4L/s and the maximum flow anticipated in the low pressure network is 8.7L/s to account for the maximum number of grinder pumps in operation. The terminal pump station evaluation compares a configuration with an inline booster pump configuration. pump configuration was recommended as the submersible pump The inline booster terminal pump station configuration. A number of rising main alignment options were investigated and the option of “rising main alignment via Tongue Farm Road” was preferred. HARRISON GRIERSON CONSULTANTS LIMITED Page 16 Rodney District Council Mahurangi Wastewater Master Plan – Project Data Summary September 2008 HG Ref 1014-125641-01 HGCL (April 2008) Matakana Main Pressure Sewer Pumping Station: Conceptual Design Report Brief Description of Contents This design report described the new pump stations and rising main design for the connection between Matakana and Omaha WwTP at a conceptual/preliminary design level. The study compared a number of pump station configuration options (drymounting, pumps in series and mono-pumps). It was found the dry-mounting pump option was most favourable in terms of capital and operating expenditures, thus this was the preferred pump station configuration option. The pumps are sized to deliver up to 12.5L/s. Diffuse Source Ltd (February 2006) Matakana Wastewater Discharge Receiving Environment Monitoring Plan. Draft Version 2 Brief Description of Contents This report is an environmental monitoring plan to track and assess the effects of the discharge from the Matakana Wastewater Treatment Plant on the lower Matakana River and Matakana Estuary. The historical effluent data (2001-5) were quoted and the report concluded that the effluent quality is poor in terms of high ammonia and faecal coliform concentrations. In contrast, Matakana River is in relatively good state. Due to the high concentration of pollutants, it was estimated that a dilution factor of 2000 fold was need to meet with recreation contact guidelines and 20000 times to meet the shellfish gathering guidelines. This report has also presented a monitoring schedules to assess the environmental impact associated with the effluent discharge. 6.2 CATCHMENT STATUS The existing Matakana wastewater treatment system does not deliver satisfactory treatment performance particularly high ammonia and faecal coliform concentrations. It is envisaged that the sewage from the Matakana community will be pumped to Omaha WwTP as the existing system will be decommissioned. Capital Expenditure Programme in the Long Term Plan RDC has made the following financial plans to upgrade the sewerage infrastructure. HARRISON GRIERSON CONSULTANTS LIMITED Page 17 Rodney District Council Mahurangi Wastewater Master Plan – Project Data Summary September 2008 HG Ref 1014-125641-01 Table 7: Matakana Wastewater Capital Expenditure Programme from LTP Items Est. Total between 2006 - 2016($) Example Projects (Timeframe) $3M Pump to Omaha WwTP (2008-10) $0.5M Renewals Wastewater Treatment Plant Upgrade Renewals Key Sewerage Infrastructure Capacities The estimated capacities of the key sewerage infrastructure in the Matakana area from the recent investigations are summarised in Table 8. The capacity figures of local reticulation network or individual plant items are not included. Table 8: Key Sewerage Infrastructure Capacity Estimates of Matakana Area Matakana Infrastructure Capacity Low Pressure Sewer 12.5L/s Treatment System - Note: 1. 7.0 Capacities of local reticulation network and individual plant items are not included. POINT WELLS Currently there is no communal sewerage infrastructure at Point Wells. The sewage from the household is treated and disposed by onsite systems. 7.1 PREVIOUS INVESTIGATIONS HGCL (April 2007) Point Wells Wastewater Servicing Strategy: Issues and Options Report. Brief Description of Contents This report examined the long term wastewater service strategy for Point Wells. The population of Point Wells was projected to increase from 350 to 1300 by 2051. The long term wastewater strategy option was to provide wastewater connection to the Omaha WwTP. A number of reticulation network configuration options were assessed. pressure sewer system was preferred. A low The projected peak flow from the low pressure network in Point Wells is expected to reach 3.8L/s by 2051. compares to 15.8L/s for the conventional gravity sewer network). (This The rising main from Point Wells is connected to the Omaha Road Pump Station. The report mentioned that the measured peak flow of the Omaha Road Pump Station from the telemetry data was 35L/s and it was understood that the HARRISON GRIERSON CONSULTANTS LIMITED Page 18 Rodney District Council Mahurangi Wastewater Master Plan – Project Data Summary September 2008 HG Ref 1014-125641-01 pumps have been run at reduced frequency. The theoretical capacity of the pump is between 53 and 55L/s (single pump running). Ecogent (December 2007) Assessment of Sustainability of On Site System at Point Wells. Brief Description of Contents This report was a review of the on site wastewater systems in Point Wells. The study concluded that the environment around Point Wells was adversely affected by on site wastewater disposal. The problem was caused by small sections, poor soakage and low-lying areas, the problem has been exacerbated during wet weather events. The high groundwater level caused ponding of disposed effluent and the effluent ended up in the estuary. Furthermore, odour has been noticed after rains. The small section size and the poor soil draining properties made the continuation of on site wastewater systems not a sustainable option. As a result, this study recommended a community wastewater collection and treatment system to replace the existing on site systems. 7.2 CATCHMENT STATUS It is envisaged that the sewage from Point Wells will be pumped to Omaha WwTP. Capital Expenditure Programme in the Long Term Plan RDC has made the following financial plans to upgrade the sewerage infrastructure. Table 9: Point Wells Wastewater Capital Expenditure Programme from LTP Items Est. Total between 2006 - 2016($) Example Projects (Timeframe) New reticulation /pipeline - - Renewals - - Key Sewerage Infrastructure Capacities The estimated capacities of the key sewerage infrastructure in the Point Wells area from the recent investigations are summarised in Table 8. The capacity figures of local reticulation network or individual plant items are not included. HARRISON GRIERSON CONSULTANTS LIMITED Page 19 Rodney District Council Mahurangi Wastewater Master Plan – Project Data Summary September 2008 HG Ref 1014-125641-01 Table 8: Key Sewerage Infrastructure Capacity Estimates of Point Wells Area Point Wells Infrastructure Capacity Low Pressure Sewer pump station to Omaha WwTP 3.8L/s Treatment System - Note: 1. 8.0 Capacities of local reticulation network and individual plant items are not included. OMAHA Omaha is a community northeast of Warkworth. Sewage is collected by a conventional system before is pumped to the Omaha WwTP. Omaha Road PS collects all the wastewater in the catchment before it is pumped to the treatment plant. The treated effluent is disposed in the nearby forest block and golf course. 8.1 PREVIOUS INVESTIGATIONS Enviromex (September 2005) Omaha, Pt Wells, Matakana, Leigh and Whangateau Sewerage Servicing Strategy. Draft Brief Description of Contents This report presented a centralised servicing strategy option for a few settlements around Omaha WwTP. The process configuration of Omaha WwTP was two lagoons followed by polishing filters and storage dam. The first aeration lagoon is 1800m³ and 3m water depth and the second lagoon is 4200m³ and 1.2m water depth. polishing filters were rated to 1100m³/day. 38000m³. The The storage dam volume is The treated effluent is then disposed into the forest. The study reported that the polishing filters were restricted to deliver between 750 and 800m³/day due to the presence of algal solids. This strategy report also recommended a number of upgrades for the Omaha WwTP to cater for the additional flows from growth and expansion of sewerage catchment. Ecogent (Nov 06) Omaha – Jones Road Groundwater Monitoring Report Brief Description of Contents This is a groundwater monitoring report for the treated effluent disposal of Omaha WwTP. The treated effluent was disposed in the James Road forestry HARRISON GRIERSON CONSULTANTS LIMITED Page 20 Rodney District Council Mahurangi Wastewater Master Plan – Project Data Summary September 2008 HG Ref 1014-125641-01 block and Omaha Beach Golf Course. The monitoring report concluded that the treated effluent disposal from Omaha WwTP did not have a significant effect on the groundwater chemistry at Jones Road. Ecogent (May 06) Omaha Beach Groundwater Monitoring Report Brief Description of Contents This is a groundwater monitoring report for the treated effluent disposal of Omaha WwTP on the Omaha Beach Golf Course. The monitoring report concluded that the treated effluent disposal did not have a significant effect on the groundwater level, quality and groundwater chemistry. PDP (May 2007) Omaha Sewage Treatment Plant – Irrigation Assessment Brief Description of Contents This report examined a water and nutrient balance through modelling of the existing irrigation fields (Omaha Golf Course and Jones Road Irrigation Blocks). The modelling results indicated that the nitrogen loads reaching the groundwater from the golf course irrigation and Jones Road irrigation block wer 600kg/year and 300kg/year respectively. Despite the results, the actual monitoring data did not reveal any noticeable effect on the groundwater quality trends and the modelling results seemed to have over-predicted the nitrate concentration results in the groundwater. The estimated application rate at Omaha Golf Course is 2mm/day (annual average figure). The recommendations of this report included refining the mass balance model by incorporating daily flow and individual block data, collection of percolating water quality for nutrient analysis and surveying groundwater gradients of the aquifer. 8.2 CATCHMENT STATUS Two nearby community, Matakana and Point Wells will be connected to the Omaha WwTP in the future. A treatment plant upgrade will be required to increase its capacity. Wastewater Discharge Resource Consent The resource consent (#34101) expires on 31 May 2015. HARRISON GRIERSON CONSULTANTS LIMITED Page 21 Rodney District Council Mahurangi Wastewater Master Plan – Project Data Summary September 2008 HG Ref 1014-125641-01 Volumetric Discharge Condition: To discharge up to 860m3/day from 1 October to 30 April and up to 570m3 from 1 May to 30 September to land on Mangatawhiri Spit. Total discharge not to exceed 180,000m3/year or up to 6000m3/week from 1 October to 30 April and up to 4000m3 from 1 May to 30 September. The resource consent (#34100) expires on 31 May 2016. Volumetric Discharge Condition: To discharge up to 1200m3/day of treated wastewater from Omaha WW treatment plant to land at Jones Road. Capital Expenditure Programme in the Long Term Plan RDC has made the following financial plans to upgrade the sewerage infrastructure. Table 9: Omaha Wastewater Capital Expenditure Programme from LTP Items Wastewater Treatment Plant Upgrade Est. Total between 2006 - 2016($) Example Projects (Timeframe) $5.3M Plant Land Purchase (2012-14) Treatment Plant Upgrade (2012-15) New pipeline Renewals - - $0.7M Renewals Key Sewerage Infrastructure Capacities The estimated capacities of the key sewerage infrastructure in the Omaha area from the recent investigations are summarised in Table 8. The capacity figures of local reticulation network or individual plant items are not included. Table 8: Key Sewerage Infrastructure Capacity Estimates of Point Wells Area Infrastructure Capacity Point Wells Omaha Road PS 53-55L/s Treatment System 1100m³/day2 Disposal to Forest Not known3 Disposal to Golf Course Not known3 Note: 1. Capacities of local reticulation network and individual plant items are not included. 2. Wastewater treatment plant capacity is estimated based on the rated capacity of the tertiary filters. 3. The capacity of the disposal fields was not discussed in the reports. HARRISON GRIERSON CONSULTANTS LIMITED Page 22 Rodney District Council Mahurangi Wastewater Master Plan – Project Data Summary 9.0 September 2008 HG Ref 1014-125641-01 LEIGH Leigh is located north east to Matakana and Point Wells. 9.1 PREVIOUS INVESTIGATIONS No previous investigation reports received. 9.2 CATCHMENT STATUS The catchment area is currently un-reticulated. Council intends to connect the community to the Omaha WwTP. This will include a pump station and a rising main to the wastewater treatment plant. Under the current long term plan (LTP), Council has not made any financial planning to connect this community before 2016. 10.0 LIMITATIONS 10.1 GENERAL This report is for the use by Rodney District Council only, and should not be used or relied upon by any other person or entity or for any other project. This report has been prepared for the particular project described to us and its extent is limited to the scope of work agreed between the client and Harrison Grierson Consultants Limited. No responsibility is accepted by Harrison Grierson Consultants Limited or its directors, servants, agents, staff or employees for the accuracy of information provided by third parties and/or the use of any part of this report in any other context or for any other purposes. HARRISON GRIERSON CONSULTANTS LIMITED Page 23 APPENDIX 1 Executive Summary of Selected Reports APPENDIX 5.2 Mahurangi Wastewater Strategy – Population Sensitivity Analysis (Sept 2008) RODNEY DISTRICT COUNCIL Mahurangi Wastewater Strategy Population Sensitivity Analysis March 2008 HG Ref 1014-125641-01 Doc Ref rep-rdc-CE001V3-gja-bmr HARRISON GRIERSON CONSULTANTS LIMITED Document Control Record Client RODNEY DISTRICT COUNCIL Project Mahurangi Wastewater Sensitivity Analysis HG Ref. 1014-125641-01 Doc Ref. rep-rdc-CE001V3-gja-bmr Document Report Strategy - Population ISSUE AND REVISION RECORD Status Draft Date of Issue March 2008 Originator Grant Anderson - Environmental Scientist Reviewed Stephen Finnemore – Senior Principal Approved for Issue Stephen Finnemore – Senior Principal Office of Origin Auckland Telephone 09 917 5000 Facsimile 09 917 5001 Email [email protected] HARRISON GRIERSON CONSULTANTS LIMITED Page i RODNEY DISTRICT COUNCIL Mahurangi Wastewater Strategy Population Sensitivity Analysis March 2008 HG Ref 1014-125641-01 Doc Ref rep-rdc-CE001V3-gja-bmr CONTENTS Page PROJECT SCOPE 1 1.0 INTRODUCTION 1 1.1 BACKGROUND 2 2.0 AUCKLAND STRATEGY REGIONAL COUNCIL - REGIONAL GROWTH 3 3.0 DESIGN FLOW RATES 4 4.0 POPULATION GROWTH 4 4.1 APPROACH 4 4.2 LOW, MODERATE AND HIGH GROWTH RATES 5 4.3 WARKWORTH 4.4 SNELLS BEACH AND ALGIES BAY 11 4.5 SANDSPIT 14 4.6 MATAKANA 17 4.7 POINT WELLS 20 4.8 OMAHA 23 4.9 LEIGH 26 4.10 MAHURANGI EAST 29 4.11 TOTAL POTENTIAL POPULATION 2051 32 4.12 2016 AND 2026 PROJECTED POPULATION 36 5.0 SNELLS-ALGIES WASTEWATER OUTFALL CONDITION REPORT 37 6.0 RODNEY DISTRICT COUNCIL LTCCP (2006-2016) 38 6.1 DEVELOPMENT CONTRIBUTIONS 42 7.0 TRANSIT NZ - RODNEY DISTRICT COUNCIL MEMORANDUM OF UNDERSTANDING 43 8.0 CONCLUSION 44 9.0 LIMITATIONS 44 9.1 GENERAL 44 7 APPENDICES Appendix 1 Planning Area Unit Map (Mahurangi East) HARRISON GRIERSON CONSULTANTS LIMITED Page ii Rodney District Council Mahurangi Wastewater Strategy March 2008 HG Ref 1014-125641-01 PROJECT SCOPE The project scope for this study was defined and agreed between Rodney District Council and Harrison Grierson Consultants Limited. This study is a population projection analysis for the Northeast Rodney area (Mahurangi Region). The scope of this investigation encompassed: • Summary of the district-wide population growth model developed by Rob Bates, whom was separately commissioned by Rodney District Council • Presentation of the population growth projection data specific for the study area • Identification of the population trend based on the population growth model The population growth projection data summarised in this report was used in the master plan. The report was still in draft as there were a number of ongoing studies conducted in parallel. 1.0 INTRODUCTION This report seeks to outline the needs of the Wastewater for the Mahurangi East region (incorporating Snells Beach, Algies Bay, Warkworth, Omaha, Matakana and Wells Point). The document: • identifies the requirements of the wastewater infrastructure based on current future growth estimates of the region • identifies trends of older population to remain as permanent population It is not intended to present issues and options or identify or develop the preferred strategy, rather it is a broad population assessment. It is important to emphasise that this document will identify the future demand drivers in terms of population growth (when and where) that will ultimately lead to new infrastructure capacity requirements, out to 2051. It is therefore necessary to ensure that where possible, any assumptions are justifiable and quantified. HARRISON GRIERSON CONSULTANTS LIMITED Page 1 Rodney District Council Mahurangi Wastewater Strategy 1.1 March 2008 HG Ref 1014-125641-01 BACKGROUND The Mahurangi & Warkworth regions comprise of the Warkworth Township and other smaller townships to the east of Warkworth. These include Snells Beach and Algies Bay. The greater Mahurangi region also encompasses Sandspit, Omaha, and Point Wells. There is also the possibility that Leigh could be connected to a reticulated system some time in the future, therefore consideration is given to the outlying towns as well. The treatment plant at Warkworth was originally designed to cater for a population equivalent of 3000. There have been various upgrades since the initial plant was constructed in 1980, and the plant is currently being upgraded to treat the peak storm water flows by the installation of an Actiflo “Peak Flow Treatment System” supplied by Veolia. The Warkworth treatment plant presently discharges into the Mahurangi River. The river discharge was historically considered a temporary measure by the Auckland Regional Council. The discharge Resource Consent expires in 2011, by which time the fate of the river discharge shall be known. The treatment plant at Snells Algies was commissioned in 1982 and designed to service the population of the Snells Beach and Algies Bay communities with a permanent population of approximately 700 people, rising to around 3500 during the summer holidays. This system is a lagoon system with twin oxidation ponds which discharge via a marine outfall located 2km south of Martins Bay. In 2005 Rodney District Council stated the following: In 2005 we find ourselves in a situation where both treatment plants are running out of capacity to service growth and where goal posts have moved in terms of higher environmental expectations. The council is therefore in a position where it needs to review the strategy for wastewater servicing and implement systems that will serve the area for at least the next 20 years with consideration to the 50 year planning horizon. The council has received resource consents from the ARC for the Snells-Algies marine discharge, air discharge and occupation of the coastal marine area. All these consents expire at the same time in December 2011. If the expected population growth comes to pass, the plant and outfall will have reached its capacity by this time. The council is pursuing short term consents for the Warkworth Plant to also expire in 2011, at the same time as the Snell-Algies consent, with the view to applying for a new resource consent once the Warkworth and Mahurangi Wastewater Strategy has HARRISON GRIERSON CONSULTANTS LIMITED Page 2 Rodney District Council Mahurangi Wastewater Strategy March 2008 HG Ref 1014-125641-01 been completed. The new consent may not necessarily be for a continued discharge into the Mahurangi River. The Warkworth and Mahurangi Wastewater Strategy will identify the future solutions for both towns; Council has already started work on this strategy at a concept level. The Jones Road treatment system (Omaha) receives and treats effluent from Omaha, and in the future (2008/09) will receive effluent from Point Wells, and later Matakana (2009/10). A comprehensive study was undertaken in 2005 and new resource consents for discharge was obtained. 2015. This consent expires in In 2005, it was predicted that the Jones Road plant had sufficient capacity to cater for growth until 2015. The treatment plant at Jones Road theoretically has capacity for the Omaha development, Point Wells and Matakana communities only. 2.0 AUCKLAND REGIONAL COUNCIL - REGIONAL GROWTH STRATEGY The Auckland Regional Growth Strategy ("ARGS") is a document which outlines the future growth of the Auckland region up to 2050. The ARGS focuses on a large area extending from Pukekohe in the south to Wellsford in the north. As a high-level policy document, it does not provide specific growth rates for the smaller centres, rather it makes general statements like "… the north including the Hibiscus Coast could be home to 440,000 people by 2050, compared to 233,000 in 1996." (Regional Growth Strategy, November 1999, p. 32). The ARGS is not area-specific, defining the 'north' region to include everything from the northern side of the Auckland Harbour Bridge to Wellsford. Proposed Plan Change 6 (2006) seeks to lift the status of Warkworth from the Regional Analysis of Centres Activity (2003) of Rural to Town Centre. It is noted that Warkworth is considered only as a centre within the report titled "Establishing a Classification for Auckland's Centres and Corridors" insofar that there is no recognition of the newly extended SH1 as a corridor to provide a link with Orewa. This effectively means that the new motorway extension is not given any particular regard, and that the Warkworth area is not considered as an area which may be utilised as a satellite town to Auckland. Notwithstanding the information provided by the Regional Growth Strategy, it is recognised that townships within the Mahurangi East region are used as satellite towns which provide workers to Auckland, and people commute on a day to day basis. HARRISON GRIERSON CONSULTANTS LIMITED Page 3 Rodney District Council Mahurangi Wastewater Strategy 3.0 March 2008 HG Ref 1014-125641-01 DESIGN FLOW RATES Information is available on the existing flows from data provided by Rodney Water within their monthly and quarterly reports. This data has been used by URS in a report titled "Warkworth Wastewater Treatment Upgrade and Disposal Options" provided a value of 140 L/person/day for the average dry weather flow (ADWF) and 280 L/person/day for the peak wet weather flow (PWWF). The Rodney District Council Engineering Code utilises the Auckland Regional Council publication TP58 which specifies 200L/person/day for a household with standard fixtures and fittings and 220L/person/day for upmarket and luxury houses. 4.0 POPULATION GROWTH 4.1 APPROACH A Growth Model has been developed by Rodney District Council (Rob Bates, version 14 26/08/08) which models the growth between 2007 and 2051 for the areas under RDC’s jurisdiction. The model presents anticipated growth based on a straight-line population increase. The Bates model looks specifically at the occupied dwellings. This model grows only the occupied dwellings, and leaves the unoccupied dwellings at a constant rate for the next 50 years. The model illustrates that each increase in occupied dwellings represents a greater overall level of occupancy rates. In conjunction with Rob Bates, HG have altered this model. Rather than the unoccupied dwellings remaining constant, they are consumed at a rate determined by the current age structure. In addition, rather than keeping the population at the standard (from 2006 census data) 2.59 people/household, we have tended the population to 2.2 at the ultimate demand. From the available census data, we were able to map the current structure of the population. This was done for each planning area unit (PAU). Results from this confirmed thoughts that the Mahurangi east region was top heavy with older, retired people. Data was available from Statistics New Zealand (Stats NZ) which illustrated that there is a large proportion of baby boomers. This transposes to a shift in the average population age and a large number of retirees (those who are older than 65 years of age). Base data for the RDC (Rob Bates) Growth Model is derived from the 2006 census. For example, the census indicates that the permanent occupancy rate for Warkworth is high, at 92.3%, which is typical for a stable residential community, with minimal, if any, seasonal population. Conversely, Omaha has a permanent occupancy rate of 50%, indicating that a high proportion of dwellings are used as holiday baches. HARRISON GRIERSON CONSULTANTS LIMITED Page 4 Rodney District Council Mahurangi Wastewater Strategy March 2008 HG Ref 1014-125641-01 The total number of dwellings in each area has been split into normally occupied and normally unoccupied dwellings, to account for the percentage of baches in each area that change the population count over the peak period in summer, particularly during Christmas and New Year. The RDC (Rob Bates) Model projects the number permanently occupied dwellings and the unoccupied dwellings remain static. From this, the projected number of unoccupied dwellings has been calculated by dividing the number of occupied dwellings by the percentage of permanent occupancy (giving the total number of dwellings), and multiplying the total dwellings by the percentage of unoccupied dwellings (from the 2006 census data). For the percentage of permanently occupied dwellings for each area, the average household occupancy figures for the Northern Ward region have been used, being 2.59 people per dwelling. This is the value used by Rob Bates in his population predictions and thus it has been retained for consistency. During the peak Christmas/New Year period, a factor of 2 is applied to normally unoccupied dwellings to model the itinerant/summer population (i.e. the influx of people into the area over busy summer periods with high occupancy rates in baches which are normally unoccupied). This means that the normally unoccupied dwellings are assumed to have an occupancy rate of 5.2 (2.59 x 2). This is used to calculate the summer peak population, by adding the expected increase (assuming all unoccupied dwellings are now occupied with 5.2 people per dwelling) to the usual population (2.59 people per dwelling for the percentage of permanently occupied dwellings). As this has only been applied to the percentage of dwellings which are not permanently occupied (and thus assumed to be baches), there will be larger shifts in population for holiday destinations than for more stable residential communities. Guidance from the planning department at Rodney District Council have indicated the estimated proportions of permanently occupied dwellings in the future. It should also be noted that the peak summer population is likely to occur for only approximately 14 days of the year, over the busy Christmas / New Year period. 4.2 LOW, MODERATE AND HIGH GROWTH RATES Whilst the recent RDC (Rob Bates) Growth Model is the most accurate and upto-date model available, it is also essential to consider the sensitivity of the model. For example, growth bottlenecks may be removed if developers agree to provide additional infrastructure such as roads or water/wastewater to facilitate a specific development/private plan change (thus increasing the ultimate number of lots). Alternatively, growth may be slower if economic growth is lower than anticipated, or growth occurs elsewhere in regions that are considered more “attractive”. This may be due to accelerated provision of infrastructure (particularly roads enabling commuting) or job creation. HARRISON GRIERSON CONSULTANTS LIMITED Page 5 Rodney District Council Mahurangi Wastewater Strategy March 2008 HG Ref 1014-125641-01 To model the potential sensitivities of the current growth model, three growth rates have been modelled: the normal (Moderate Growth) rate, 100% of that predicted by the RDC (Rob Bates) Model; a High Growth rate, 200% of the Moderate Growth rate with reference to the population as at the 2006 census; and a Low Growth rate, 50% of the Moderate Growth rate, also measured from the 2006 census population. Note these Low and High population predictions are calculated from growth figures, rather than actual population projected. The growth rate selected will determine: 1. When the existing infrastructure will reach capacity (and require upgrading). 2. The ultimate infrastructure demand. The basic growth curves are illustrated in Figure 1 below. Figure 1 models an existing community with 100 lots and an additional available 100 lots, equating to an ultimate development of 200 lots. The low growth curve models 100 existing lots plus only 50 additional lots, equating to a development of 150 lots by 2051. Conversely, the high growth curve models 100 existing lots plus 200 additional lots equating to a development of 300 lots by 2051. Clearly, to accommodate additional lots over and above the capacity presented in the “Structure Plan” there has to be either more intensive development or the re-zoning of land not originally identified in current growth model. The impact of the sensitivity analysis will be more dramatic for newer communities where potential growth is equivalent or in excess of the current level of development. Conversely, the impact will be less pronounced for mature communities with minimal future growth. For instance if there is a current development of 2000 lots and the “normal growth” potential of only 100 allotments, the sensitivity analysis development range will be between 2050 and 2200 lots. Note that because the Low and High Growth figures have been based on the Northern Region average occupancy rate of 2.59 people per dwelling, and added to the 2006 census data with occupancy rates in individual areas varying from 2.00-3.09 people per dwelling, the 2051 total permanent population figures are not equal to 2.59 people per dwelling. HARRISON GRIERSON CONSULTANTS LIMITED Page 6 Rodney District Council Mahurangi Wastewater Strategy March 2008 HG Ref 1014-125641-01 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 2006 2051 Normal Growth Low Growth High Growth Figure 1: High and Low Growth Rates 4.3 WARKWORTH The population of Warkworth in 2006 (from census data 2006) was 3,273. This is considered to be consistent with the Warkworth Structure Plan (2004) with stated a population of 2,800. Future growth presented in the Structure Plan is given in Table 2 below. Table 2: Warkworth Growth Strategy (Warkworth Structure Plan 2004) Growth Projected Population (people) Capacity to be provided (with preferred bypass) Existing (2004) 2,800 2004 - 2024 4,400 5,200 2024 - 2044 6,000 7,000 Up to 8,000 8,800 2044 + 4,400 (1997 Structure Plan) A summary of the census data regarding the total number of dwellings in Warkworth, also detailing the number of occupied and unoccupied dwellings, is shown below in Table 3. The percentage of permanent occupancy has been calculated for each individual area in Warkworth, and the average percentage of permanent occupancy for Warkworth has been calculated using the total number of occupied and total unoccupied dwellings for the three sub-areas. It is thus assumed that the percentage of permanent occupancy will be approximately HARRISON GRIERSON CONSULTANTS LIMITED Page 7 Rodney District Council Mahurangi Wastewater Strategy March 2008 HG Ref 1014-125641-01 equal throughout Warkworth in future, so this average percentage has been used for subsequent calculations. Table 3: Summary of 2006 Census Data for Warkworth Occupied Dwellings Unoccupied Dwellings Total Percentage Permanent Occupancy (%) Warkworth Central 678 51 729 93.0 Warkworth North 348 27 375 92.8 Warkworth South 312 33 345 90.4 1338 111 1449 92.33 Area Total Table 4 below presents the latest RDC (Rob Bates) Growth Model for Warkworth, which calculates only the number of occupied dwellings, however the number of unoccupied dwellings (and thus the total number of dwellings) may be calculated using the average percentage of permanent occupancy for the area. The table shows that the total number of dwellings by 2051 will have reached 2661, 70.0% of the proposed Ultimate Development Capacity. Table 4: Warkworth 2051 Dwelling Statistics Occupied Dwellings1 Unoccupied Dwellings2 Total Dwellings (2051) Ultimate Development3 Warkworth Central 1470 122 1592 2421 Warkworth North 385 32 417 430 Warkworth South 602 50 652 949 2457 204 2661 3800 Area Total 1. The projected number of occupied dwellings is taken directly from the RDC (Rob Bates) Growth Model. This is assumed to be equal to 92.3% (average permanent occupancy rate for Warkworth) of the total number of dwellings in 2051. 2. The percentage of unoccupied dwellings is assumed to remain stable at an average of 7.7% for the area. Thus the number of unoccupied dwellings may be calculated by dividing the number of occupied dwellings by 92.3%, and multiplying by 7.7%. 3. Ultimate Development figures provided by Rob Bates model and based on total land available for development. Table 5 below presents the 2051 projected normal (permanent) and peak (summer) populations. For Warkworth, the expected peak population over the peak Christmas and New Year period is 7,410. It should be noted that the permanent population estimate of 6,355 by 2051 is lower than the Structure Plan, which proposed a population of 8,000 at 2044. HARRISON GRIERSON CONSULTANTS LIMITED Page 8 Rodney District Council Mahurangi Wastewater Strategy Table 5: March 2008 HG Ref 1014-125641-01 Warkworth Projected Permanent and Summer Populations (2051) Total Dwellings Potential Permanent Population Summer Increase Potential Total Peak Occupancy Occupied plus unoccupied dwellings 2.59 people per occupied dwelling Scale factor of 2 applied to unoccupied dwellings Permanent plus summer population Warkworth Central 1592 3802 631 4433 Warkworth North 417 997 165 1162 Warkworth South 652 1556 258 1814 2661 6355 1055 7410 Area Total Table 6 below presents the potential permanent and peak populations by 2051, with ‘Low Growth’ based on 50% of the growth projected in the RDC (Rob Bates) Growth Model, ‘Moderate Growth’ based on 100% of the growth projected in the Growth Model, and ‘High Growth’ based on 200% of the growth projected in the Growth Model, as described in Section 6.2. The ‘Growth’ segment is shown because the final calculated figures for Low, Moderate and High Growth are calculated from the ‘Growth’ segment figures, and added to the 2006 census data. For Warkworth, the Low Growth projection shows a peak population of 5,644, the Moderate Growth projection shows a peak population of 7,410, and the High Growth projection shows a peak population of 11,034. This summer increase is small compared to the permanent population, due to the low proportion of normally unoccupied dwellings. Table 6: Warkworth Projected Permanent and Summer Populations with Various Growth Scenarios Growth Scenario 2006 Census Low (50%) Total Dwellings 2006 1449 Permanent Population 3273 Summer Increase 3847 Total New Dwellings 645 1212 2580 Occupied Dwellings 596 1119 2383 Permanent Population 1541 3082 6164 Unoccupied Dwellings 49 93 198 256 480 1023 1797 3562 Summer Increase Summer Peak Population Total High (200%) 574 Summer Peak Population Growth Moderate (100%) Total Dwellings 2051 HARRISON GRIERSON CONSULTANTS LIMITED 2094 1 2661 7187 4029 Page 9 Rodney District Council Mahurangi Wastewater Strategy Table 6: March 2008 HG Ref 1014-125641-01 Warkworth Projected Permanent and Summer Populations with Various Growth Scenarios Low (50%) Moderate (100%) Occupied Dwellings 1934 2457 3721 Permanent Population 48142 6355 94372 Unoccupied Dwellings 160 204 309 Summer Increase 830 1055 1597 5644 7410 11034 Growth Scenario (2051) Summer Peak Population High (200%) 1. Remaining development capacity: 1139 lots (from RDC (Rob Bates) Growth Model). 2. Occupancy rate used for Growth Model is the Northern Region average of 2.59 people per dwelling. Total permanent population in 2051 is not equal to 2.59 people per dwelling due to lower occupancy per dwelling in Warkworth at 2006 census. NB: Rates used for occupancy are 2.59 people per occupied dwelling. For unoccupied dwellings, this is multiplied by a factor of 2 for expected summer occupancy. The average permanent occupancy percentage of 92.33% is applied to all calculations. Table 6 above illustrates that under the High Growth scenario, the potential summer population may increase to 11,034, thus exceeding the numbers presented in the Structure Plan. Conversely, if growth is lower than anticipated, the population would be around 5,644 people during the peak summer period, significantly lower than the Structure Plan. In order to ensure that the future growth is aligned with the relevant nonstatutory documents, such as the LTCCP, it is prudent to present the projected population growth for the next ten and twenty years. This ensures that forward planning can be achieved from both a fiscal and engineering perspective. Table 7 below presents the projected permanent and summer peak populations for Warkworth in 2016 and 2026 (2051 figures also listed for quick reference). As with the calculations for the above table, the Low and High populations for each timespan have been calculated from the growth predicted by the Moderate projection (the RDC (Rob Bates) Model) and added to the 2006 census figures. Table 7: Year Warkworth 2016 & 2026 Populations with Various Growth Scenarios Growth Scenario Potential Permanent Population (2.59 people per dwelling, 92% occupancy) 2016 2026 Low 3704 1 Summer Increase (2 times average occupancy of unoccupied dwellings) Potential Summer Peak Population 614 4318 Moderate 4136 686 4822 High 4999 829 5828 Low 4033 669 4702 1 Moderate 4794 795 5589 High 6315 1047 7362 HARRISON GRIERSON CONSULTANTS LIMITED Page 10 Rodney District Council Mahurangi Wastewater Strategy Table 7: Year March 2008 HG Ref 1014-125641-01 Warkworth 2016 & 2026 Populations with Various Growth Scenarios Growth Scenario Potential Permanent Population Summer Increase (2.59 people per dwelling, 92% occupancy) 2051 Low (2 times average occupancy of unoccupied dwellings) 4814 1 Potential Summer Peak Population 830 5644 Moderate 6355 1055 7410 High 9437 1597 11034 1. Prediction from RDC (Rob Bates) Growth Model. 4.4 SNELLS BEACH AND ALGIES BAY The Snells-Algies Structure plan is outdated (following district plan decisions for Snells future development area which effectively reduced the area available for development), thus the data presented is entirely based on the RDC (Rob Bates) Growth Model. A summary of the census data regarding the total number of dwellings in SnellsAlgies, also detailing the number of occupied and unoccupied dwellings, is shown below in Table 8. The percentage of permanent occupancy has been calculated for each individual area in Snells-Algies, and the average percentage of permanent occupancy for Snells-Algies has been calculated using the total number of occupied and total unoccupied dwellings for the three smaller areas. It is thus assumed that the percentage of permanent occupancy will be approximately equal throughout Snells-Algies in future, so this average percentage has been used for subsequent calculations. Table 8: Summary of 2006 Census Data for Snells-Algies Occupied Dwellings Unoccupied Dwellings Total Dwellings Percentage Permanent Occupancy (%) Snells Beach 516 156 672 76.8 Snells Beach South 609 153 762 79.9 Algies Bay 246 183 429 57.3 1371 492 1863 73.59 Area Total Table 9 below presents the latest RDC (Rob Bates) Growth Model for SnellsAlgies, which calculates only the number of occupied dwellings, however the number of unoccupied dwellings (and thus the total number of dwellings) may be calculated using the average percentage of permanent occupancy for the area. HARRISON GRIERSON CONSULTANTS LIMITED Page 11 Rodney District Council Mahurangi Wastewater Strategy March 2008 HG Ref 1014-125641-01 The table shows that the total number of dwellings by 2051 will have reached 2356, 96.8% of the proposed Ultimate Development Capacity. Table 9: Snells-Algies 2051 Dwelling Statistics Occupied Dwellings1 Unoccupied Dwellings2 Total Dwellings (2051) Ultimate Development Snells Beach 663 238 9013 840 Snells Beach South 747 268 10153 913 Algies Bay 444 159 603 681 Average 1854 665 2519 2434 Area 1. The projected number of occupied dwellings is taken directly from the RDC (Rob Bates) Growth Model. This is assumed to be equal to 73.6% (average permanent occupancy rate for Snells-Algies) of the total number of dwellings in 2051. 2. The percentage of unoccupied dwellings is assumed to remain stable at an average of 26.4% for the area. Thus the number of unoccupied dwellings may be calculated by dividing the number of occupied dwellings by 73.6%, and multiplying by 26.4%. 3. Exceeds Ultimate Development Capacity. Table 10 below presents the 2051 projected normal (permanent) and peak (summer) populations. For Snells-Algies, the expected peak population over the peak Christmas and New Year period is 8,238. Table 10: Snells-Algies Projected Permanent and Summer Populations (2051) Total Dwellings Potential Permanent Population Summer Increase Potential Total Peak Occupancy Occupied plus unoccupied dwellings 2.59 people per occupied dwelling Scale factor of 2 applied to unoccupied dwellings Permanent plus summer population Snells Beach 901 1715 1231 2946 Snells Beach South 1015 1933 1387 3320 603 1148 824 1972 2519 4796 3442 8238 Area Algies Bay TOTAL Table 11 below presents the potential permanent and peak populations by 2051, with ‘Low Growth’ based on 50% of the growth projected in the RDC (Rob Bates) Growth Model, ‘Moderate Growth’ based on 100% of the growth projected in the Growth Model, and ‘High Growth’ based on 200% of the growth projected in the Growth Model, as described in Section 6.2. The ‘Growth’ segment is shown because the final calculated figures for Low, Moderate and High Growth are calculated from the ‘Growth’ segment figures, and added to the 2006 census data. HARRISON GRIERSON CONSULTANTS LIMITED Page 12 Rodney District Council Mahurangi Wastewater Strategy March 2008 HG Ref 1014-125641-01 For Snells-Algies, the Low Growth projection shows a peak population of 7,136, the Moderate Growth projection shows a peak population of 8,238, and the High Growth projection shows a peak population of 10,890. The summer increase is significant due to a highly seasonal occupancy rate, as 26.4% of the dwellings are not permanently occupied. (This compares with only 7.7% at Warkworth, which is a more seasonally stable residential community.) Table 11: Snells-Algies Projected Permanent and Summer Populations with Various Growth Scenarios Growth Scenario 2006 Census Growth Moderate (100%) Total Dwellings 2006 1863 Permanent Population 3339 Summer Increase 2545 Summer Peak Population 5884 High (200%) Total New Dwellings 383 656 1531 Occupied Dwellings 282 483 1126 Permanent Population 729 1457 2914 Unoccupied Dwellings 101 173 404 Summer Increase 523 897 2091 1251 2354 Summer Peak Population Total (2051) Low (50%) 1 5005 Total Dwellings 2051 2246 2519 3394 Occupied Dwellings 1653 1854 2497 2 Permanent Population 4068 4796 62532 Unoccupied Dwellings 593 665 896 Summer Increase 3068 3442 4637 Summer Peak Population 7136 8238 10890 1. Value shown includes Snells Beach and Snells Beach South exceedances of Ultimate Development Capacity. Remaining development capacity: 78 lots at Algies Bay only (from RDC (Rob Bates) Growth Model). 2. Occupancy rate used for Growth Model is the Northern Region average of 2.59 people per dwelling. Total permanent population in 2051 is not equal to 2.59 people per dwelling due to lower occupancy per dwelling in Snells-Algies at 2006 census. NB: Rates used for occupancy are 2.59 people per occupied dwelling. For unoccupied dwellings, this is multiplied by a factor of 2 for expected summer occupancy. The average permanent occupancy percentage of 73.6% is applied to all calculations. In order to ensure that the future growth is aligned with the relevant nonstatutory documents, such as the LTCCP, it is prudent to present the projected population growth for the next ten and twenty years. This ensures that forward planning can be achieved from both a fiscal and engineering perspective. Table 12 below presents the projected permanent and summer peak populations for Snells-Algies in 2016 and 2026 (2051 figures also listed for quick reference). As with the calculations for the above table, the Low and High populations for each HARRISON GRIERSON CONSULTANTS LIMITED Page 13 Rodney District Council Mahurangi Wastewater Strategy March 2008 HG Ref 1014-125641-01 timespan have been calculated from the growth predicted by the Moderate projection (the RDC (Rob Bates) Model) and added to the 2006 census figures. Table 12: Year 2016 2026 2051 Snells-Algies Scenarios Growth Scenario 2016 & 2026 Potential Permanent Population Populations with Summer Increase Various Growth Potential Summer Peak Population (2.59 people per dwelling, 92% occupancy) (2 times average occupancy of unoccupied dwellings) 3588 2575 6163 Low 1 Moderate 3837 2754 6591 High 4335 3111 7446 Low 3731 2677 6408 1 Moderate 4122 2958 7080 High 4905 3520 8425 Low 4068 3068 7136 1 Moderate 4796 3442 8238 High 6253 4637 10890 1. Prediction from RDC (Rob Bates) Growth Model. 4.5 SANDSPIT There is no Structure Plan for Sandspit, so the Snells Algies methodology using the RDC (Rob Bates) Model was used to assess population growth. Given the proximity of Sandspit to Snells Algies, it may ultimately become a part of the larger Mahurangi Wastewater Scheme servicing Warkworth and Snells Algies. A summary of the census data regarding the total number of dwellings in Sandspit, also detailing the number of occupied and unoccupied dwellings, is shown below in Table 13. The average percentage of permanent occupancy for Sandspit has been calculated using the total number of occupied and total unoccupied dwellings. It is assumed that the percentage of permanent occupancy will be approximately equal throughout Sandspit in future, so this average percentage has been used for subsequent calculations. Table 13: Area Sandspit Summary of 2006 Census Data for Sandspit Occupied Dwellings Unoccupied Dwellings Total Dwellings Percentage Permanent Occupancy (%) 156 42 198 78.8 Table 14 below presents the latest RDC (Rob Bates) Growth Model for Sandspit, which calculates only the number of occupied dwellings, however the number of HARRISON GRIERSON CONSULTANTS LIMITED Page 14 Rodney District Council Mahurangi Wastewater Strategy March 2008 HG Ref 1014-125641-01 unoccupied dwellings (and thus the total number of dwellings) may be calculated using the average percentage of permanent occupancy for the area. The table shows that the total number of dwellings by 2051 will have reached 377, 80.9% of the proposed Ultimate Development Capacity. Table 14: Sandspit 2051 Dwelling Statistics Area Sandspit Occupied Dwellings1 Unoccupied Dwellings2 Total Dwellings (2051) Ultimate Development 297 80 377 466 1. The projected number of occupied dwellings is taken directly from the RDC (Rob Bates) Growth Model. This is assumed to be equal to 78.8% (average permanent occupancy rate for Sandspit) of the total number of dwellings in 2051. 2. The percentage of unoccupied dwellings is assumed to remain stable at an average of 21.2% for the area. Thus the number of unoccupied dwellings may be calculated by dividing the number of occupied dwellings by 78.8%, and multiplying by 21.2%. Table 15 below presents the 2051 projected normal (permanent) and peak (summer) populations. For Sandspit, the expected peak population over the peak Christmas and New Year period is 1,182. Table 15: Area Sandspit Projected Permanent and Summer Populations (2051) Total Dwellings Potential Permanent Population Summer Increase Potential Total Peak Occupancy Occupied plus unoccupied dwellings 2.59 people per occupied dwelling Scale factor of 2 applied to unoccupied dwellings Permanent plus summer population 377 768 414 1182 Sandspit Table 16 below presents the potential permanent and peak populations by 2051, with ‘Low Growth’ based on 50% of the growth projected in the RDC (Rob Bates) Growth Model, ‘Moderate Growth’ based on 100% of the growth projected in the Growth Model, and ‘High Growth’ based on 200% of the growth projected in the Growth Model, as described in Section 6.2. The ‘Growth’ segment is shown because the final calculated figures for Low, Moderate and High Growth are calculated from the ‘Growth’ segment figures, and added to the 2006 census data. For Sandspit, the Low Growth projection shows a peak population of 892, the Moderate Growth projection shows a peak population of 1,182, and the High Growth projection shows a peak population of 1,826. Table 16: Sandspit Projected Permanent Various Growth Scenarios HARRISON GRIERSON CONSULTANTS LIMITED and Summer Populations with Page 15 Rodney District Council Mahurangi Wastewater Strategy March 2008 HG Ref 1014-125641-01 Low (50%) Growth Scenario 2006 Census Growth Total Dwellings 2006 198 Permanent Population 363 Summer Increase 217 Summer Peak Population 580 High (200%) Total New Dwellings 99 179 397 Occupied Dwellings 78 141 313 Permanent Population 203 405 810 Unoccupied Dwellings 21 38 84 Summer Increase 109 196 436 Summer Peak Population 312 601 1246 1 Total Dwellings 2051 297 377 595 Occupied Dwellings 234 297 469 768 11732 2 Permanent Population Total (2051) Moderate (100%) 566 Unoccupied Dwellings 63 80 126 Summer Increase 326 414 653 Summer Peak Population 892 1182 1826 1. Remaining development capacity: 89 lots (from RDC (Rob Bates) Growth Model). 2. Occupancy rate used for Growth Model is the Northern Region average of 2.59 people per dwelling. Total permanent population in 2051 is not equal to 2.59 people per dwelling due to lower occupancy per dwelling in Sandspit at 2006 census. NB: Rates used for occupancy are 2.59 people per occupied dwelling. For unoccupied dwellings, this is multiplied by a factor of 2 for expected summer occupancy. The average permanent occupancy percentage of 78.8% is applied to all calculations. In order to ensure that the future growth is aligned with the relevant nonstatutory documents, such as the LTCCP, it is prudent to present the projected population growth for the next ten and twenty years. This ensures that forward planning can be achieved from both a fiscal and engineering perspective. Table 17 below presents the projected permanent and summer peak populations for Sandspit in 2016 and 2026 (2051 figures also listed for quick reference). As with the calculations for the above table, the Low and High populations for each timespan have been calculated from the growth predicted by the Moderate projection (the RDC (Rob Bates) Model) and added to the 2006 census figures. Table 17: Year 2016 Sandspit 2016 & 2026 Populations with Various Growth Scenarios Growth Scenario Potential Permanent Population Summer Increase Potential Summer Peak Population (2.59 people per dwelling, 92% occupancy) (2 times average occupancy of unoccupied dwellings) 425 228 653 262 750 Low Moderate HARRISON GRIERSON CONSULTANTS LIMITED 1 488 Page 16 Rodney District Council Mahurangi Wastewater Strategy Table 17: Year 2026 2051 March 2008 HG Ref 1014-125641-01 Sandspit 2016 & 2026 Populations with Various Growth Scenarios Growth Scenario Potential Permanent Population Summer Increase Potential Summer Peak Population (2.59 people per dwelling, 92% occupancy) (2 times average occupancy of unoccupied dwellings) High 613 330 943 Low 467 251 718 1 Moderate 571 307 878 High 779 419 1198 Low 566 326 892 Moderate 1 768 414 1182 High 1173 653 1826 1. Prediction from RDC (Rob Bates) Growth Model. 4.6 MATAKANA There is no Structure Plan for Matakana, so the Snells-Algies methodology using the RDC (Rob Bates) Model was used to assess population growth. The population projections for are as follows. A summary of the census data regarding the total number of dwellings in Matakana, also detailing the number of occupied and unoccupied dwellings, is shown below in Table 18. The percentage of permanent occupancy has been calculated for each individual area in Matakana, and the average percentage of permanent occupancy for Matakana has been calculated using the total number of occupied and total unoccupied dwellings for the three smaller areas. thus assumed that the percentage of permanent occupancy It is will be approximately equal throughout Matakana in future, so this average percentage has been used for subsequent calculations. Table 18: Summary of 2006 Census Data for Matakana Occupied Dwellings Unoccupied Dwellings Total Dwellings Percentage Permanent Occupancy (%) Matakana 105 30 135 77.8 Matakana Valley 348 87 435 80.0 Area Rainbows End Total 39 12 51 76.5 492 129 621 79.23 Table 19 below presents the latest RDC (Rob Bates) Growth Model for Matakana, which calculates only the number of occupied dwellings, however the number of HARRISON GRIERSON CONSULTANTS LIMITED Page 17 Rodney District Council Mahurangi Wastewater Strategy March 2008 HG Ref 1014-125641-01 unoccupied dwellings (and thus the total number of dwellings) may be calculated using the average percentage of permanent occupancy for the area. The table shows that the total number of dwellings by 2051 will have reached 1171, 80.7% of the proposed Ultimate Development Capacity. Table 19: Matakana 2051 Dwelling Statistics Occupied Dwellings1 Unoccupied Dwellings2 Total Dwellings (2051) Ultimate Development Matakana 375 98 473 700 Matakana Valley 508 133 641 700 45 12 573 51 928 243 1171 1451 Area Rainbows End Average 1. The projected number of occupied dwellings is taken directly from the RDC (Rob Bates) Growth Model. This is assumed to be equal to 79.2% (average permanent occupancy rate for Matakana) of the total number of dwellings in 2051. 2. The percentage of unoccupied dwellings is assumed to remain stable at an average of 20.8% for the area. Thus the number of unoccupied dwellings may be calculated by dividing the number of occupied dwellings by 79.2%, and multiplying by 20.8%. 3. Exceeds Ultimate Development Capacity. Table 20 below presents the 2051 projected normal (permanent) and peak (summer) populations. For Matakana, the expected peak population over the peak Christmas and New Year period is 3,659. Table 20: Matakana Projected Permanent and Summer Populations (2051) Total Dwellings Potential Permanent Population Summer Increase Potential Total Peak Occupancy Occupied plus unoccupied dwellings 2.59 people per occupied dwelling Scale factor of 2 applied to unoccupied dwellings Permanent plus summer population Matakana 473 971 509 1480 Matakana Valley 641 1314 689 2003 57 115 61 176 1171 2400 1259 3659 Area Rainbows End TOTAL Table 21 below presents the potential permanent and peak populations by 2051, with ‘Low Growth’ based on 50% of the growth projected in the RDC (Rob Bates) Growth Model, ‘Moderate Growth’ based on 100% of the growth projected in the Growth Model, and ‘High Growth’ based on 200% of the growth projected in the Growth Model, as described in Section 6.2. The ‘Growth’ segment is shown because the final calculated figures for Low, Moderate and HARRISON GRIERSON CONSULTANTS LIMITED Page 18 Rodney District Council Mahurangi Wastewater Strategy March 2008 HG Ref 1014-125641-01 High Growth are calculated from the ‘Growth’ segment figures, and added to the 2006 census data. For Matakana, the Low Growth projection shows a peak population of 2,828, the Moderate Growth projection shows a peak population of 3,659, and the High Growth projection shows a peak population of 5,133. Table 21: Matakana Projected Permanent and Summer Populations with Various Growth Scenarios Growth Scenario 2006 Census Low (50%) Total Dwellings 2006 621 Permanent Population 1392 Summer Increase Total (2051) High (200%) 667 Summer Peak Population Growth Moderate (100%) 2059 Total New Dwellings 246 550 984 Occupied Dwellings 195 436 779 Permanent Population 504 1008 2016 Unoccupied Dwellings 51 114 204 Summer Increase 264 591 1057 Summer Peak Population 768 1599 3073 Total Dwellings 2051 867 11711 1605 Occupied Dwellings 687 928 1271 Permanent Population 1896 2400 34082 Unoccupied Dwellings 180 243 333 Summer Increase 932 1259 1725 2828 3659 5133 Summer Peak Population 2 1. Value shown includes Rainbows End at Ultimate Development Capacity. Remaining development capacity: 280 lots at Matakana and Matakana Valley only (from RDC (Rob Bates) Growth Model). 2. Occupancy rate used for Growth Model is the Northern Region average of 2.59 people per dwelling. Total permanent population in 2051 is not equal to 2.59 people per dwelling due to higher occupancy per dwelling in Matakana at 2006 census. NB: Rates used for occupancy are 2.59 people per occupied dwelling. For unoccupied dwellings, this is multiplied by a factor of 2 for expected summer occupancy. The average permanent occupancy percentage of 79.2% is applied to all calculations. In order to ensure that the future growth is aligned with the relevant nonstatutory documents, such as the LTCCP, it is prudent to present the projected population growth for the next ten and twenty years. This ensures that forward planning can be achieved from both a fiscal and engineering perspective. Table 22 below presents the projected permanent and summer peak populations for Matakana in 2016 and 2026 (2051 figures also listed for quick reference). As with the calculations for the above table, the Low and High populations for each HARRISON GRIERSON CONSULTANTS LIMITED Page 19 Rodney District Council Mahurangi Wastewater Strategy March 2008 HG Ref 1014-125641-01 timespan have been calculated from the growth predicted by the Moderate projection (the RDC (Rob Bates) Model) and added to the 2006 census figures. Table 22: Year 2016 2026 2051 Matakana 2016 & 2026 Populations with Various Growth Scenarios Growth Scenario Potential Permanent Population Summer Increase Potential Summer Peak Population (2.59 people per dwelling, 92% occupancy) (2 times average occupancy of unoccupied dwellings) 1464 767 2231 Low 1 Moderate 1536 805 2341 High 1680 880 2560 Low 1528 801 2329 1 Moderate 1665 873 2538 High 1938 1016 2954 Low 1896 932 2828 1 Moderate 2400 1259 3659 High 3408 1725 5133 1. Prediction from RDC (Rob Bates) Growth Model. 4.7 POINT WELLS There is no Structure Plan for Point Wells, so the Snells Algies methodology using the RDC (Rob Bates) Model was used to assess population growth. The population projections for are as follows. A summary of the census data regarding the total number of dwellings in Point Wells, also detailing the number of occupied and unoccupied dwellings, is shown below in Table 23. The average percentage of permanent occupancy for Point Wells has been calculated using the total number of occupied and total unoccupied dwellings. It is assumed that the percentage of permanent occupancy will be approximately equal throughout Point Wells in future, so this average percentage has been used for subsequent calculations. Table 23: Area Point Wells Summary of 2006 Census Data for Point Wells Occupied Dwellings Unoccupied Dwellings Total Dwellings Percentage Permanent Occupancy (%) 132 69 201 65.67 Table 24 below presents the latest RDC (Rob Bates) Growth Model for Point Wells, which calculates only the number of occupied dwellings, however the number of unoccupied dwellings (and thus the total number of dwellings) may HARRISON GRIERSON CONSULTANTS LIMITED Page 20 Rodney District Council Mahurangi Wastewater Strategy March 2008 HG Ref 1014-125641-01 be calculated using the average percentage of permanent occupancy for the area. The table shows that the total number of dwellings by 2051 will have reached 322, 73.2% of the proposed Ultimate Development Capacity. Table 24: Point Wells 2051 Dwelling Statistics Area Point Wells Occupied Dwellings1 Unoccupied Dwellings2 Total Dwellings (2051) Ultimate Development 212 111 323 441 1. The projected number of occupied dwellings is taken directly from the RDC (Rob Bates) Growth Model. This is assumed to be equal to 65.7% (average permanent occupancy rate for Point Wells) of the total number of dwellings in 2051. 2. The percentage of unoccupied dwellings is assumed to remain stable at an average of 34.3% for the area. Thus the number of unoccupied dwellings may be calculated by dividing the number of occupied dwellings by 65.7%, and multiplying by 34.3%. Table 25 below presents the 2051 projected normal (permanent) and peak (summer) populations. For Point Wells, the expected peak population over the peak Christmas and New Year period is 1,120. Table 25: Area Point Wells Projected Permanent and Summer Populations (2051) Total Dwellings Potential Permanent Population Summer Increase Potential Total Peak Occupancy Occupied plus unoccupied dwellings 2.59 people per occupied dwelling Scale factor of 2 applied to unoccupied dwellings Permanent plus summer population 323 547 573 1120 Point Wells Table 26 below presents the potential permanent and peak populations by 2051, with ‘Low Growth’ based on 50% of the growth projected in the RDC (Rob Bates) Growth Model, ‘Moderate Growth’ based on 100% of the growth projected in the Growth Model, and ‘High Growth’ based on 200% of the growth projected in the Growth Model, as described in Section 6.2. The ‘Growth’ segment is shown because the final calculated figures for Low, Moderate and High Growth are calculated from the ‘Growth’ segment figures, and added to the 2006 census data. For Point Wells, the Low Growth projection shows a peak population of 910, the Moderate Growth projection shows a peak population of 1,120, and the High Growth projection shows a peak population of 1,658. The summer increase is significant due to the high proportion of normally unoccupied dwellings (34.3%), which are assumed to be occupied during summer. HARRISON GRIERSON CONSULTANTS LIMITED Page 21 Rodney District Council Mahurangi Wastewater Strategy Table 26: March 2008 HG Ref 1014-125641-01 Point Wells Projected Permanent and Summer Populations with Various Growth Scenarios Low (50%) Growth Scenario 2006 Census Growth Total (2051) Moderate (100%) Total Dwellings 2006 201 Permanent Population 303 Summer Increase 357 Summer Peak Population 660 High (200%) Total New Dwellings 72 122 287 Occupied Dwellings 47 80 189 Permanent Population 122 244 488 Unoccupied Dwellings 25 42 99 Summer Increase 128 216 510 Summer Peak Population 250 460 998 Total Dwellings 2051 273 3231 488 Occupied Dwellings 179 212 321 2 Permanent Population 425 547 7912 Unoccupied Dwellings 94 111 168 Summer Increase 485 573 867 Summer Peak Population 910 1120 1658 1. Remaining development capacity: 118 lots (from RDC (Rob Bates) Growth Model). 2. Occupancy rate used for Growth Model is the Northern Region average of 2.59 people per dwelling. Total permanent population in 2051 is not equal to 2.59 people per dwelling due to lower occupancy per dwelling in Point Wells at 2006 census. NB: Rates used for occupancy are 2.59 people per occupied dwelling. For unoccupied dwellings, this is multiplied by a factor of 2 for expected summer occupancy. The average permanent occupancy percentage of 65.7% is applied to all calculations. In order to ensure that the future growth is aligned with the relevant nonstatutory documents, such as the LTCCP, it is prudent to present the projected population growth for the next ten and twenty years. This ensures that forward planning can be achieved from both a fiscal and engineering perspective. Table 27 below presents the projected permanent and summer peak populations for Point Wells in 2016 and 2026 (2051 figures also listed for quick reference). As with the calculations for the above table, the Low and High populations for each timespan have been calculated from the growth predicted by the Moderate projection (the RDC (Rob Bates) Model) and added to the 2006 census figures. Table 27: Year Point Wells 2016 & 2026 Populations with Various Growth Scenarios Growth Scenario Potential Permanent Population (2.59 people per dwelling, 92% occupancy) HARRISON GRIERSON CONSULTANTS LIMITED Summer Increase (2 times average occupancy of unoccupied dwellings) Potential Summer Peak Population Page 22 Rodney District Council Mahurangi Wastewater Strategy Table 27: Year 2016 2026 2051 March 2008 HG Ref 1014-125641-01 Point Wells 2016 & 2026 Populations with Various Growth Scenarios Growth Scenario Potential Permanent Population Summer Increase Potential Summer Peak Population (2.59 people per dwelling, 92% occupancy) (2 times average occupancy of unoccupied dwellings) 343 358 701 Low 1 Moderate 384 401 785 High 465 486 951 Low 366 382 748 1 Moderate 429 448 877 High 555 580 1135 Low 425 485 910 1 Moderate 547 573 1120 High 791 867 1658 1. Prediction from RDC (Rob Bates) Growth Model. 4.8 OMAHA There is no Structure Plan for Omaha, so the Snells Algies methodology using the RDC (Rob Bates) Model was used to assess population growth. The population projections for are as follows. A summary of the census data regarding the total number of dwellings in Omaha, also detailing the number of occupied and unoccupied dwellings, is shown below in Table 28. The average percentage of permanent occupancy for Omaha has been calculated using the total number of occupied and total unoccupied dwellings. It is assumed that the percentage of permanent occupancy will be approximately equal throughout Omaha in future, so this average percentage has been used for subsequent calculations. Table 28: Area Omaha Summary of 2006 Census Data for Omaha Occupied Dwellings Unoccupied Dwellings Total Dwellings Percentage Permanent Occupancy (%) 156 591 747 20.88 Table 29 below presents the latest RDC (Rob Bates) Growth Model for Omaha, which calculates only the number of occupied dwellings, however the number of unoccupied dwellings (and thus the total number of dwellings) may be calculated using the average percentage of permanent occupancy for the area. The table shows that the total number of dwellings by 2051 will have reached 997, more than 100% of the proposed Ultimate Development Capacity. HARRISON GRIERSON CONSULTANTS LIMITED Page 23 Rodney District Council Mahurangi Wastewater Strategy Table 29: March 2008 HG Ref 1014-125641-01 Omaha 2051 Dwelling Statistics Area Omaha Occupied Dwellings1 Unoccupied Dwellings2 Total Dwellings (2051) Ultimate Development 373 1413 17863 997 1. The projected number of occupied dwellings is taken directly from the RDC (Rob Bates) Growth Model. This is assumed to be equal to 20.9% (average permanent occupancy rate of Omaha) of the total number of dwellings in 2051. 2. Exceeds Ultimate Development Capacity. Table 30 below presents the 2051 projected normal (permanent) and peak (summer) populations. For Omaha, the expected peak population over the peak Christmas and New Year period is 8,275. Table 30: Area Omaha Projected Permanent and Summer Populations (2051) Total Dwellings Potential Permanent Population Summer Increase Potential Total Peak Occupancy Occupied plus unoccupied dwellings 2.59 people per occupied dwelling Scale factor of 2 applied to unoccupied dwellings Permanent plus summer population 1786 964 7311 8275 Omaha Table 31 below presents the potential permanent and peak populations by 2051, with ‘Low Growth’ based on 50% of the growth projected in the RDC (Rob Bates) Growth Model, ‘Moderate Growth’ based on 100% of the growth projected in the Growth Model, and ‘High Growth’ based on 200% of the growth projected in the Growth Model, as described in Section 6.2. The ‘Growth’ segment is shown because the final calculated figures for Low, Moderate and High Growth are calculated from the ‘Growth’ segment figures, and added to the 2006 census data. For Omaha, the Low Growth projection shows a peak population of 6,028, the Moderate Growth projection shows a peak population of 8,275, and the High Growth projection shows a peak population of 13,876. The very high increase in population over the peak summer period is a result of the low permanent occupancy rate of 20.9%, which means that in peak time, the population could swell to more than four times its usual size (based on Moderate Growth). This also accounts for the high difference between the Low, Moderate and High Growth figures. In reality however, such a huge increase is unlikely because the permanent occupancy rate will most likely rise as the area develops, leaving fewer dwellings contributing to the summer influx. Table 31: Omaha Projected Permanent and Summer Populations with Various Growth Scenarios HARRISON GRIERSON CONSULTANTS LIMITED Page 24 Rodney District Council Mahurangi Wastewater Strategy March 2008 HG Ref 1014-125641-01 Low (50%) Growth Scenario 2006 Census Growth Total Dwellings 2006 747 Permanent Population 354 Summer Increase 3058 Summer Peak Population 3412 High (200%) Total New Dwellings 565 1039 2258 Occupied Dwellings 118 217 472 Permanent Population 305 610 1220 Unoccupied Dwellings 447 822 1787 Summer Increase 2311 4253 9244 Summer Peak Population 2616 4863 10464 Total Dwellings 2051 Occupied Dwellings Total (2051) Moderate (100%) 1 1312 1786 3005 274 373 628 15742 2 Permanent Population 659 964 Unoccupied Dwellings 1038 1413 2378 Summer Increase 5369 7311 12302 Summer Peak Population 6028 8275 13876 1. Value exceeds Ultimate Development Capacity; remaining development capacity: 0 lots (from RDC (Rob Bates) Growth Model). 2. Occupancy rate used for Growth Model is the Northern Region average of 2.59 people per dwelling. Total permanent population in 2051 is not equal to 2.59 people per dwelling due to lower occupancy per dwelling in Omaha at 2006 census. NB: Rates used for occupancy are 2.59 people per occupied dwelling. For unoccupied dwellings, this is multiplied by a factor of 2 for expected summer occupancy. The average permanent occupancy percentage of 20.88% is applied to all calculations. In order to ensure that the future growth is aligned with the relevant nonstatutory documents, such as the LTCCP, it is prudent to present the projected population growth for the next ten and twenty years. This ensures that forward planning can be achieved from both a fiscal and engineering perspective. Table 32 below presents the projected permanent and summer peak populations for Omaha in 2016 and 2026 (2051 figures also listed for quick reference). As with the calculations for the above table, the Low and High populations for each timespan have been calculated from the growth predicted by the Moderate projection (the RDC (Rob Bates) Model) and added to the 2006 census figures. Table 32: Year 2016 Omaha 2016 & 2026 Populations with Various Growth Scenarios Growth Scenario Potential Permanent Population Summer Increase (2.59 people per dwelling, 92% occupancy) (2 times average occupancy of unoccupied dwellings) 437 3311 Low HARRISON GRIERSON CONSULTANTS LIMITED Potential Summer Peak Population 3748 Page 25 Rodney District Council Mahurangi Wastewater Strategy Table 32: Year 2026 2051 March 2008 HG Ref 1014-125641-01 Omaha 2016 & 2026 Populations with Various Growth Scenarios Growth Scenario Potential Permanent Population Summer Increase Potential Summer Peak Population (2.59 people per dwelling, 92% occupancy) (2 times average occupancy of unoccupied dwellings) Moderate 5201 3940 4460 High 686 5197 5883 Low 497 3765 4262 1 Moderate 641 4856 5497 High 928 7031 7959 Low 659 5369 6028 1 Moderate 964 7311 8275 High 1574 12302 13876 1. Prediction from RDC (Rob Bates) Growth Model. 4.9 LEIGH There is no Structure Plan for Leigh, so the Snells Algies methodology using the RDC (Rob Bates) Model was used to assess population growth. The population projections for are as follows. A summary of the census data regarding the total number of dwellings in Leigh, also detailing the number of occupied and unoccupied dwellings, is shown below in Table 33. The percentage of permanent occupancy has been calculated for each individual area in Leigh, and the average percentage of permanent occupancy for Leigh has been calculated using the total number of occupied and total unoccupied dwellings for the three smaller areas. It is thus assumed that the percentage of permanent occupancy will be approximately equal throughout Leigh in future, so this average percentage has been used for subsequent calculations. Table 33: Summary of 2006 Census Data for Leigh Area Occupied Dwellings Unoccupied Dwellings Total Dwellings Percentage Permanent Occupancy (%) Leigh/Whangateau Rural 159 87 246 64.6 54 141 195 27.7 Leigh Town 165 111 276 59.8 Total 378 339 717 52.72 Matheson Bay Town HARRISON GRIERSON CONSULTANTS LIMITED Page 26 Rodney District Council Mahurangi Wastewater Strategy March 2008 HG Ref 1014-125641-01 Table 34 below presents the latest RDC (Rob Bates) Growth Model for Leigh, which calculates only the number of occupied dwellings, however the number of unoccupied dwellings (and thus the total number of dwellings) may be calculated using the average percentage of permanent occupancy for the area. The table shows that the total number of dwellings by 2051 will have reached 1210, 87.0% of the proposed Ultimate Development Capacity. Table 34: Leigh 2051 Dwelling Statistics Area Occupied Dwellings1 Unoccupied Dwellings2 Total Dwellings (2051) Ultimate Development Leigh/Whangat eau Rural 298 267 565 700 Matheson Bay Town 90 81 171 195 Leigh Town 250 224 474 496 Average 638 572 1210 1391 1. The projected number of occupied dwellings is taken directly from the RDC (Rob Bates) Growth Model. This is assumed to be equal to 52.7% (average permanent occupancy rate for Leigh) of the total number of dwellings in 2051. 2. The percentage of unoccupied dwellings is assumed to remain stable at an average of 47.3% for the area. Thus the number of unoccupied dwellings may be calculated by dividing the number of occupied dwellings by 52.7%, and multiplying by 47.3%. Table 35 below presents the 2051 projected normal (permanent) and peak (summer) populations. For Leigh, the expected peak population over the peak Christmas and New Year period is 4,614. Table 35: Leigh Projected Permanent and Summer Populations (2051) Total Dwellings Potential Permanent Population Summer Increase Potential Total Peak Occupancy Occupied plus unoccupied dwellings 2.59 people per occupied dwelling Scale factor of 2 applied to unoccupied dwellings Permanent plus summer population Leigh/Whangateau Rural 565 772 1383 2155 Matheson Bay Town 171 234 418 652 Leigh Town 474 648 1160 1808 1210 1654 2960 4614 Area TOTAL Table 36 below presents the potential permanent and peak populations by 2051, with ‘Low Growth’ based on 50% of the growth projected in the RDC (Rob Bates) Growth Model, ‘Moderate Growth’ based on 100% of the growth projected in the Growth Model, and ‘High Growth’ based on 200% of the growth HARRISON GRIERSON CONSULTANTS LIMITED Page 27 Rodney District Council Mahurangi Wastewater Strategy March 2008 HG Ref 1014-125641-01 projected in the Growth Model, as described in Section 6.2. The ‘Growth’ segment is shown because the final calculated figures for Low, Moderate and High Growth are calculated from the ‘Growth’ segment figures, and added to the 2006 census data. For Leigh, the Low Growth projection shows a peak population of 3,702, the Moderate Growth projection shows a peak population of 4,614, and the High Growth projection shows a peak population of 6,812. Table 36: Leigh Projected Permanent and Summer Populations with Various Growth Scenarios Growth Scenario 2006 Census Growth Moderate (100%) Total Dwellings 2006 717 Permanent Population 912 Summer Increase 1754 Summer Peak Population 2666 High (200%) Total New Dwellings 272 493 1088 Occupied Dwellings 143 260 574 Permanent Population 371 742 1484 Unoccupied Dwellings 129 233 514 Summer Increase 665 1206 2662 1036 1948 4146 Summer Peak Population Total (2051) Low (50%) 1 Total Dwellings 2051 989 1210 Occupied Dwellings 521 638 952 2 1805 Permanent Population 1283 1654 23962 Unoccupied Dwellings 468 572 853 Summer Increase 2419 2960 4416 Summer Peak Population 3702 4614 6812 1. Remaining development capacity: 181 lots (from RDC (Rob Bates) Growth Model). 2. Occupancy rate used for Growth Model is the Northern Region average of 2.59 people per dwelling. Total permanent population in 2051 is not equal to 2.59 people per dwelling due to lower occupancy per dwelling in Leigh at 2006 census. NB: Rates used for occupancy are 2.59 people per occupied dwelling. For unoccupied dwellings, this is multiplied by a factor of 2 for expected summer occupancy. The average permanent occupancy percentage of 52.7% is applied to all calculations. In order to ensure that the future growth is aligned with the relevant nonstatutory documents, such as the LTCCP, it is prudent to present the projected population growth for the next ten and twenty years. This ensures that forward planning can be achieved from both a fiscal and engineering perspective. Table 37 below presents the projected permanent and summer peak populations for Leigh in 2016 and 2026 (2051 figures also listed for quick reference). As with the calculations for the above table, the Low and High populations for each HARRISON GRIERSON CONSULTANTS LIMITED Page 28 Rodney District Council Mahurangi Wastewater Strategy March 2008 HG Ref 1014-125641-01 timespan have been calculated from the growth predicted by the Moderate projection (the RDC (Rob Bates) Model) and added to the 2006 census figures. Table 37: Year 2016 2026 2051 Leigh 2016 & 2026 Populations with Various Growth Scenarios Growth Scenario Potential Permanent Population Summer Increase Potential Summer Peak Population (2.59 people per dwelling, 92% occupancy) (2 times average occupancy of unoccupied dwellings) 1015 1820 2835 Low 1 Moderate 1118 2005 3123 High 1324 2374 3698 Low 1088 1951 3039 1 Moderate 1264 2267 3531 High 1616 2898 4514 Low 1283 2419 3702 1 Moderate 1654 2960 4614 High 2396 4416 6812 1. Prediction from RDC (Rob Bates) Growth Model. 4.10 MAHURANGI EAST There is no Structure Plan for Mahurangi East, so the Snells Algies methodology using the RDC (Rob Bates) Model was used to assess population growth. The population projections for are as follows. A summary of the census data regarding the total number of dwellings in Mahurangi East, also detailing the number of occupied and unoccupied dwellings, is shown below in Table 38. The average percentage of permanent occupancy for Mahurangi East has been calculated using the total number of occupied and total unoccupied dwellings. It is assumed that the percentage of permanent occupancy will be approximately equal throughout Mahurangi East in future, so this average percentage has been used for subsequent calculations. Table 38: Summary of 2006 Census Data for Mahurangi East Area Occupied Dwellings Unoccupied Dwellings Total Dwellings Percentage Permanent Occupancy (%) Mahurangi East 144 144 288 50.00 Table 39 below presents the latest RDC (Rob Bates) Growth Model for Mahurangi East, which calculates only the number of occupied dwellings, however the number of unoccupied dwellings (and thus the total number of dwellings) may HARRISON GRIERSON CONSULTANTS LIMITED Page 29 Rodney District Council Mahurangi Wastewater Strategy March 2008 HG Ref 1014-125641-01 be calculated using the average percentage of permanent occupancy for the area. The table shows that the total number of dwellings by 2051 will have reached 700, 100% of the proposed Ultimate Development Capacity. Table 39: Mahurangi East 2051 Dwelling Statistics Area Occupied Dwellings1 Unoccupied Dwellings2 Total Dwellings (2051) Ultimate Development Mahurangi East 397 397 7943 700 1. The projected number of occupied dwellings is taken directly from the RDC (Rob Bates) Growth Model. This is assumed to be equal to 50.0% (average permanent occupancy rate for Mahurangi East) of the total number of dwellings in 2051. 2. The percentage of unoccupied dwellings is assumed to remain stable at an average of 50.0% for the area. Thus the number of unoccupied dwellings may be calculated by dividing the number of occupied dwellings by 50.0%, and multiplying by 50.0%. 3. Exceeds Ultimate Development Capacity. Table 40 below presents the 2051 projected normal (permanent) and peak (summer) populations. For Mahurangi East, the expected peak population over the peak Christmas and New Year period is 3,080. Table 40: Mahurangi East Projected Permanent and Summer Populations (2051) Area Total Dwellings Potential Permanent Population Summer Increase Potential Total Peak Occupancy Occupied plus unoccupied dwellings 2.59 people per occupied dwelling Scale factor of 2 applied to unoccupied dwellings Permanent plus summer population 794 1026 2054 3080 Mahurangi East Table 41 below presents the potential permanent and peak populations by 2051, with ‘Low Growth’ based on 50% of the growth projected in the RDC (Rob Bates) Growth Model, ‘Moderate Growth’ based on 100% of the growth projected in the Growth Model, and ‘High Growth’ based on 200% of the growth projected in the Growth Model, as described in Section 6.2. The ‘Growth’ segment is shown because the final calculated figures for Low, Moderate and High Growth are calculated from the ‘Growth’ segment figures, and added to the 2006 census data. For Mahurangi East, the Low Growth projection shows a peak population of 2,124, the Moderate Growth projection shows a peak population of 3,080, and the High Growth projection shows a peak population of 5,296. HARRISON GRIERSON CONSULTANTS LIMITED Page 30 Rodney District Council Mahurangi Wastewater Strategy Table 41: Mahurangi East Projected Permanent and Summer Populations with Various Growth Scenarios Growth Scenario 2006 Census March 2008 HG Ref 1014-125641-01 Low (50%) Total Dwellings 2006 288 Permanent Population 321 Summer Increase 745 Summer Peak Population Growth Total (2051) Moderate (100%) High (200%) 1066 Total New Dwellings 273 506 1090 Occupied Dwellings 136 253 545 Permanent Population 353 705 1410 Unoccupied Dwellings 136 253 545 Summer Increase 705 1309 2820 Summer Peak Population 1058 2014 4230 Total Dwellings 2051 561 7941 1378 Occupied Dwellings 280 397 689 2 Permanent Population 674 1026 17312 Unoccupied Dwellings 280 397 689 Summer Increase 1450 2054 3565 Summer Peak Population 2124 3080 5296 1. Exceeds Ultimate Development Capacity; remaining development capacity: 0 lots (from RDC (Rob Bates) Growth Model). 2. Occupancy rate used for Growth Model is the Northern Region average of 2.59 people per dwelling. Total permanent population in 2051 is not equal to 2.59 people per dwelling due to lower occupancy per dwelling in Mahurangi East at 2006 census. NB: Rates used for occupancy are 2.59 people per occupied dwelling. For unoccupied dwellings, this is multiplied by a factor of 2 for expected summer occupancy. The average permanent occupancy percentage of 50.0% is applied to all calculations. In order to ensure that the future growth is aligned with the relevant nonstatutory documents, such as the LTCCP, it is prudent to present the projected population growth for the next ten and twenty years. This ensures that forward planning can be achieved from both a fiscal and engineering perspective. Table 42 below presents the projected permanent and summer peak populations for Mahurangi East in 2016 and 2026 (2051 figures also listed for quick reference). As with the calculations for the above table, the Low and High populations for each timespan have been calculated from the growth predicted by the Moderate projection (the RDC (Rob Bates) Model) and added to the 2006 census figures. Table 42: Mahurangi East 2016 & 2026 Populations with Various Growth Scenarios HARRISON GRIERSON CONSULTANTS LIMITED Page 31 Rodney District Council Mahurangi Wastewater Strategy Year Growth Scenario 2016 March 2008 HG Ref 1014-125641-01 Potential Permanent Population 2051 Potential Summer Peak Population (2.59 people per dwelling, 92% occupancy) (2 times average occupancy of unoccupied dwellings) 423 846 1269 Low 2026 Summer Increase 1 Moderate 525 1050 1575 High 729 1458 2187 Low 497 994 1491 Moderate 1 673 1346 2019 High 1025 2050 3075 Low 674 1450 2124 Moderate 10261 2054 3080 High 1731 3565 5296 1. Prediction from RDC (Rob Bates) Growth Model. 4.11 TOTAL POTENTIAL POPULATION 2051 Table 43 below provides a summary of occupied and unoccupied dwellings from 2006 census data for the entire Mahurangi East area, inclusive of Warkworth. Table 43: Summary of 2006 Census Data for Mahurangi East Area Occupied Dwellings Unoccupied Dwellings Total Dwellings Percentage Permanent Occupancy (%) Warkworth Central 678 51 729 93.0 Warkworth North 348 27 375 92.8 Warkworth South 312 33 345 90.4 Snells Beach 516 156 672 76.8 Snells Beach South 609 153 762 79.9 Algies Bay 246 183 429 57.3 Sandspit 156 42 198 78.8 Matakana 105 30 135 77.8 Matakana Valley 348 87 435 80.0 39 12 51 76.5 Point Wells 132 69 201 65.7 Omaha 156 591 747 20.9 Leigh/Whangateau Rural 159 87 246 64.6 54 141 195 27.7 Leigh Town 165 111 276 59.8 Mahurangi East 144 144 288 50.0 4167 1917 6084 68.49 Area Rainbows End Matheson Bay Town Total HARRISON GRIERSON CONSULTANTS LIMITED Page 32 Rodney District Council Mahurangi Wastewater Strategy March 2008 HG Ref 1014-125641-01 From the above table it is clear that there is wide variation between communities in terms of their permanent ocupancy rates. It is expected that in bach communities such as Omaha and Matheson Bay Town, with a large proportion of unoccupied dwellings, the percentage of permanent occupancy will increase as the areas develop, and there may be less of a hike in population over the peak summer period. However, this trend is difficult to quantify, and so has not been modelled in this report. Areas with a higher permanent occupancy rate, such as Warkworth and Matakana Valley, are likely to remain stable with similar occupancy rates as at present. Table 44 below presents the latest RDC (Rob Bates) Growth Model for the total Mahurangi East area, which calculates only the number of occupied dwellings, however the number of unoccupied dwellings (and thus the total number of dwellings) may be calculated using the average percentage of permanent occupancy for the area. The table shows that the total number of dwellings by 2051 will have reached 9,814, 84.0% of the proposed Ultimate Development Capacity. Table 44: Mahurangi East Area 2051 Dwelling Statistics Area Occupied Dwellings1 Unoccupied Dwellings2 Total Dwellings (2051) Ultimate Development Warkworth Central 1470 122 1592 2421 Warkworth North 385 32 417 430 Warkworth South 602 50 652 949 Snells Beach 663 238 840 840 Snells Beach South 747 268 913 913 Algies Bay 444 159 622 681 Sandspit 297 80 377 466 Matakana 375 98 473 700 Matakana Valley 508 133 641 700 45 12 57 51 Point Wells 212 111 323 441 Omaha 373 1413 997 997 Leigh/Whangateau Rural 298 267 565 700 90 81 171 195 250 224 474 496 Rainbows End Matheson Bay Town Leigh Town Mahurangi East Total 397 397 700 700 7156 3686 9814 11680 1. The projected number of occupied dwellings is taken directly from the RDC (Rob Bates) Growth Model. This is assumed to be equal to 68.5% (average permanent occupancy rate) of the total number of dwellings in 2051. 2. The percentage of unoccupied dwellings is that of each individual town; refer to appropriate section for details. HARRISON GRIERSON CONSULTANTS LIMITED Page 33 Rodney District Council Mahurangi Wastewater Strategy March 2008 HG Ref 1014-125641-01 Table 45 below presents the 2051 projected normal (permanent) and peak (summer) populations. For the Mahurangi East area, the potential permanent population as per the RDC (Rob Bates) Growth Model is 18,510, and the expected peak population over the Christmas and New Year period is 35,568. Table 45: Mahurangi East Area Projected Permanent and Summer Populations (2051) Total Dwellings Potential Permanent Population Summer Increase Potential Total Peak Occupancy Occupied plus unoccupied dwellings 2.59 people per occupied dwelling Scale factor of 2 applied to unoccupied dwellings Permanent plus summer population 1592 3802 630 4432 Warkworth North 417 997 165 1162 Warkworth South 652 1556 258 1814 Snells Beach 840 1715 1230 2945 Snells Beach South 913 1933 1386 3319 Algies Bay 622 1148 824 1972 Sandspit 377 768 413 1181 Matakana 473 971 508 1479 Matakana Valley 641 1314 689 2003 57 115 61 176 Point Wells 323 547 573 1120 Omaha 997 964 7310 8274 Leigh/Whangateau Rural 565 772 1382 2154 Matheson Bay Town 171 234 417 651 Leigh Town 474 648 1159 1807 Mahurangi East 700 1026 2053 3079 9814 18510 19058 37568 Area Warkworth Central Rainbows End TOTAL As shown is Table 45 above, there are large fluctuations between the potential permanent and summer populations, due to low permanent occupancy rates in many communities. In addition, there are further fluctuations based on the growth scenario (low, medium or high), as shown in Table 46 below. Table 46: Mahurangi East Area Projected Permanent and Summer Populations with Various Growth Scenarios Growth Scenario HARRISON GRIERSON CONSULTANTS LIMITED Low (50%) Moderate (100%) High (200%) Page 34 Rodney District Council Mahurangi Wastewater Strategy Table 46: March 2008 HG Ref 1014-125641-01 Mahurangi East Area Projected Permanent and Summer Populations with Various Growth Scenarios Low (50%) Growth Scenario 2006 Census Total Dwellings 2006 6084 Permanent Population 10257 Summer Increase Total (2051) High (200%) 9918 Summer Peak Population Growth Moderate (100%) 20175 Total New Dwellings 2329 3730 9316 Occupied Dwellings 1595 2989 6381 Permanent Population 4127 8253 16506 Unoccupied Dwellings 734 2957 2935 Summer Increase 3797 15296 15187 Summer Peak Population 7923 23549 31693 Total Dwellings 2051 8413 98141 15400 Occupied Dwellings 5762 7156 10548 2 Permanent Population 14384 18510 267632 Unoccupied Dwellings 2651 3686 4852 Summer Increase 13715 19058 25105 Summer Peak Population 28098 37568 51868 1. Some areas exceed their Ultimate Development Capacity but are still counted towards total dwellings. Remaining development capacity: 1866 lots (from RDC (Rob Bates) Growth Model). 2. Occupancy rate used for Growth Model is the Northern Region average of 2.59 people per dwelling. Total permanent population in 2051 is not equal to 2.59 people per dwelling due to overall lower occupancy per dwelling throughout the Mahurangi East area at 2006 census. NB: Rates used for occupancy are 2.59 people per occupied dwelling. For unoccupied dwellings, this is multiplied by a factor of 2 for expected summer occupancy. The average permanent occupancy percentage for Mahurangi East (68.5%) is applied to Low and High Growth calculations. Given that the Moderate Growth scenario is based on the RDC (Rob Bates) Growth Model, it would be prudent to assume that the potential permanent population would be around 23,000, being approximately halfway between the Moderate Growth scenario potential permanent population and the High Growth scenario potential permanent population. The potential peak population (likely to occur for only 14 days of the year, around Christmas and New Year) may be estimated at between 30,000 and 40,000. From the RDC (Rob Bates) growth model, there are still 1,866 allotments available for development beyond 2051, based on land available for development in the relevant Structure Plans, despite some areas having reached their Ultimate Development Capacity. Using the average occupancy of the Northern (Rodney) Ward of 2.59 persons/household, this would potentially add a further 4,851 people to the Moderate Growth scenario, equating to a potential HARRISON GRIERSON CONSULTANTS LIMITED Page 35 Rodney District Council Mahurangi Wastewater Strategy March 2008 HG Ref 1014-125641-01 permanent population of 23,361. Thus the High Growth scenario of 15,400 dwellings (with a potential permanent population of 26,763) exceeds the current Structure Plans. Finally, private plan changes resulting in developments outside the current structure plan could provide the balance of growth to meet the High Growth scenario. 4.12 2016 AND 2026 PROJECTED POPULATION As the LTCCP is based around 10-year funding cycles, it is important to present the projected population increases to 2016 and to 2026. From the RDC (Rob Bates) Growth Model, the projected Low, Moderate, and High Growth development of the Mahurangi East area is presented in Table 47. To provide the correct information for the input of the next LTCCP and for quick reference, the projected population up to 2051 is also presented. As with the calculations for Table 46 above, the Low and High populations for each timespan have been calculated from the growth predicted by the Moderate Growth projection (from the RDC (Rob Bates) Model) and added to the 2006 census figures. Table 47: Year 2016 2016 & 2026 Populations with Various Growth Scenarios for Mahurangi East Area Growth Scenario Potential Permanent Population (2 times average occupancy of unoccupied dwellings) 11400 10488 21888 11541 24085 Low 12544 1 High 14831 13645 28476 Low 12208 11232 23440 13027 27186 Moderate 2051 Potential Summer Peak Population (2.59 people per dwelling, 92% occupancy) Moderate 2026 Summer Increase 14159 1 High 18061 16617 34678 Low 14384 56634 71018 19068 37578 161860 188623 Moderate High 18510 1 26763 1. Prediction from RDC (Rob Bates) Growth Model. HARRISON GRIERSON CONSULTANTS LIMITED Page 36 Rodney District Council Mahurangi Wastewater Strategy 5.0 March 2008 HG Ref 1014-125641-01 SNELLS-ALGIES WASTEWATER OUTFALL CONDITION REPORT A report was prepared by Opus International Consultants Limited ("OIC") in August 2007 which outlined the condition of the Outfall Pipeline to Martins Bay. This report recognises that with the upgrade of the pipeline, any renewal will require specific consideration to population growth and any long-term strategy that may have an impact on the sewage disposal options for the whole of the Rodney District. OIC made the following conclusions regarding the condition of the pipeline: • The long-term design capacity for the effluent pipeline is the most important issue and a replacement pipe size is essential before any pipeline sections are renewed. • The AC (Asbestos Cement) pipe from Te Whau estuary to beyond Dawson Road should be replaced without delay, especially through the Lifeway property. • Condition of the CLMS (Concrete Lined Mild Steel) pipes across the Te Whau Estuary and the gully crossings is needed to determine if these pipes can be incorporated in the long-term solution. • The outfall section of the main is no longer a restriction and 35L/s can be safely accommodated without risk of overflowing the terminal manhole. • The diffusers on the outfall end of the steel pipe need to be replaced. • Planning for renewal of the DN200 Class A AC pipe inside the cliff and across the beach to the steel outfall pipe should start without delay, with pipe replacement completed within two years. • At any areas where pipe joint pull-out failure has occurred in the past the existing PVC (or AC) pipe should be replaced with continuously fusion welded PE 100. • Any AC pipe sections installed from Ridge Road to the coast should be replaced when they are at risk of failure, a proportion of this may be delayed until 2020. • The DN 200 "Garnite" PVC pipes currently installed in areas where joint pull-out has not occurred can remain in service until 2050 or until more capacity is needed. • Increasing the pumping capacity from 27 to 35L/s should be possible when the vulnerable sections of the rising main pipeline to Ridge Road have been renewed. HARRISON GRIERSON CONSULTANTS LIMITED Page 37 Rodney District Council Mahurangi Wastewater Strategy March 2008 HG Ref 1014-125641-01 The OIC report states that continuous pumping of 35L/s is possible through some of the existing infrastructure and with the upgrade of the existing (deteriorating) infrastructure. This equates to 3024m3/day (based on 24/7 discharge), or if the population is producing 200L/day, provides the capacity for a population of 15,120 persons. From the RDC (Rob Bates) Growth Model and utilising the existing data for the average household size (varies according to different meshblocks), the total potential population for Snells Algies and Sandspit is 5,564 people. This means that if the pipeline is upgraded to the standard as outlined by OIC, then there is easily the capacity to accommodate the growth of the Snells Algies area. Given that future consent conditions may limit discharges to an outgoing tide (similar to the Auckland-Mangere WWTP), there would be a reduction in pipeline utilisation by approximately 55-60% (i.e. only 9-10 hours/day). Thus future Resource Consent conditions may significantly reduce the volumes which can be discharged. There would however, be the requirement to replace the concrete asbestos pipeline for the majority of the way from Snells Algies to Martins Bay which is in relatively poor condition. It has been recognised that the pipeline through the 'Lifeways property’ is in a state of disrepair, and requires replacement. A meeting held at Council with various stakeholders on the 14th December resolved that a larger diameter pipe (which can handle the load from SnellsAlgies and Warkworth [High Growth scenario]) would be installed through this property. 6.0 RODNEY DISTRICT COUNCIL LTCCP (2006-2016) This document provides the general outline for presently allocated funding for infrastructure upgrades which have been planned and accounted for (as at 2006) for the next 10 years. The desired water services contribution is that "by ensuring adequate wastewater collection and treatment systems are available to all residents and that there is sufficient capacity within the wastewater systems for future development" and "by providing adequate infrastructure as a key requirement for business". Within the water services planning within the LTCCP there are the following assumptions: • That the average household size will be 2.5-2.6 people; • The average wastewater production will be 200 litres per person each day; and HARRISON GRIERSON CONSULTANTS LIMITED Page 38 Rodney District Council Mahurangi Wastewater Strategy • March 2008 HG Ref 1014-125641-01 That regulatory framework will require greater emphasis on water quality treatment. Table 48 below illustrates the wastewater infrastructure Operating Expenditure for the whole Rodney District for the next ten years. Table 48: Operating Expenditure - Wastewater 2006-2016 ($000) 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 Total 14,741 16,162 17,461 18,598 19,802 20,988 21,825 22,292 22,590 22,852 197,311 For the purposes of this study, Table 49 below illustrates a better scenario for the areas of interest. HARRISON GRIERSON CONSULTANTS LIMITED Page 39 Rodney District Council Mahurangi Wastewater Strategy March 2008 HG Ref 1014-125641-01 Table 49: Situation Rural & Townships (Total) – Significant growth is being catered for in Warkworth, Snells/Algies and Matakana with major upgrades to the the treatment plants. Also, it’s planned to expand services to un-serviced areas at Point Wells and Martins Bay Warkworth Service new developments and achieve Resource Consent Proposed Action Cost How it will be funded Sample projects during the first 3 years Boost Capacity and/or increase level of service $50.0m Financial Contributions, connection charges, rates, subsidies and loans Renew Existing assets $7.2m Depreciation Replace plant, pumps, electrics and pipelines as needed. Boost capacity and/or increase level of service $6.6m Financial contributions, connection charges, rates, subsidies and loans Warkworth wastewater treatment plant system upgrading including: Wastewater treatment plant upgrade Flow balancing Upgrading reticulation to prevent overflows McKinny/Woodcocks low pressure trunk main Pulham Road gravity main Snells Beach / Algies Bay Upgrade to cope with growth in the area Renew Existing Assets $1.6m Depreciation Replace plant, pumps, electrics and pipelines as needed. Boost Capacity and or increase level of service $4.0m Financial contributions, connection charges, rates, subsidies and loans Snells/Algies - prepare for wastewater treatment plant upgrade Renew Existing Assets $1.3m Depreciation Replace plant, pumps, electrics and pipelines as needed. HARRISON GRIERSON CONSULTANTS LIMITED Page 40 Rodney District Council Mahurangi Wastewater Strategy March 2008 HG Ref 1014-125641-01 Table 49: Situation Proposed Action Matakana Current system is at 100% capacity, with population expected to double in next 10 years. The council is aiming to link Matakana with Omaha WWTP Install new collection system and transfer Matakana wastewater to Omaha WWTP Additional land purchase at Omaha WWTP to cater for Matakana Renew Existing Assets Omaha - The plant will be upgraded with the ability to serve Point Wells and Matakana. Install new collection system and transfer to Omaha WWTP WWTP Algae control in Dam Renew Existing Assets Cost $3.0m Financial contributions, connection charges, rates, subsidies and loans $1.3m Sample projects during the first 3 years New transfer main from Matakana to Omaha - 2008/09 Retro-fit existing reticulation with low pressure system 2008/09 $0.54m Depreciation Replace plant, pumps, electrics and pipelines as needed. $3.6m Primarily contributions New low pressure collection system and transfer from Pt Wells to Omaha by June 2009 $0.4m Rates and development contributions $0.69m TOTAL EXPENDITURE RURAL $57.2m TOTAL EXPENDITURE WARKWORTH/ SNELLS ALGIES $13.5m TOTAL EXPENDITURE MATAKANA / OMAHA $9.53m TOTAL How it will be funded Depreciation WWTP algae control in dam. Replace plant, pumps, electrics and pipelines as needed. $80.23m The above table is expenditure planned only for the next ten years. If growth exceeds the anticipated 10-year growth, then there may be the requirement to update the infrastructure prior to the stated timeframes, and conversely if the development is slower, the development may not occur at the same rate. HARRISON GRIERSON CONSULTANTS LIMITED Page 41 Rodney District Council Mahurangi Wastewater Strategy 6.1 March 2008 HG Ref 1014-125641-01 DEVELOPMENT CONTRIBUTIONS The present development contributions for sewerage only are shown in Table 50 below. Table 50: Wastewater Development Contributions Area Household Unit Contribution Matakana $13768 Omaha $3921 Snells Beach-Algies Bay $5603 Warkworth $6811 Based on the population projections and additional capacity for the following areas, development contributions will provide approximately $35m for the next 50 years, as shown in Tables 51-53 below. Table 51: 10 Year Development Contribution based on projected household units Area Current HH Unit Contribution Matakana Omaha Snells Beach-Algies Bay Number of New HH Units (2016) Total $13,768 63 $867,384 $3,921 45 $176,445 $5,603 113 $633,139 Sandspit $6,000 (est.) 33 $198,000 Leigh $6,000 (est.) 18 $108,000 Point Wells $6,000 (est.) 17 $102,000 Mahurangi East $6,000 (est.) 59 $354,000 261 $1,777,671 609 $4,216,639 Warkworth $6,811 TOTAL Table 52: 20 Year Development Contribution based on projected household units (2016-2026) Area Matakana Current HH Unit Contribution Number of New HH Units (2016) Total $13,768 61 $839,848 Omaha $3,921 47 $184,287 Snells Beach-Algies Bay $5,603 110 $616,330 Sandspit $6,000 (est.) 32 $192,000 Leigh $6,000 (est.) 18 $108,000 Point Wells $6,000 (est.) 17 $102,000 Mahurangi East $6,000 (est.) Warkworth HARRISON GRIERSON CONSULTANTS LIMITED $6,811 57 $342,000 255 $1,736,805 Page 42 Rodney District Council Mahurangi Wastewater Strategy Table 52: March 2008 HG Ref 1014-125641-01 20 Year Development Contribution based on projected household units (2016-2026) Area Current HH Unit Contribution Number of New HH Units (2016) TOTAL Table 53: Total $4,121,270 50 Year Development Contribution based on projected household units Area Current HH Unit Contribution Matakana Number of New HH Units (20082051) Total $13,768 565 $7,778,920 Omaha $3,921 250 $980,250 Snells Beach-Algies Bay $5,603 597 $3,344,991 Sandspit $6,000 (est.) 270 $1,620,000 Leigh $6,000 (est.) 220 $1,320,000 Point Wells $6,000 (est.) 303 $1,818,000 Mahurangi East $6,000 (est.) Warkworth $6,811 TOTAL 412 2,472,000 2351 $16,012,661 4028 $35,346,822 The above calculations do not include inflation, which would be expected to be in the vicinity of 2% per annum and has been calculated based on the maximum number of dwellings at the moderate growth rate from the RDC (Rob Bates) Growth Model. As illustrated in the 2008-2016 and 2016-2026 tables, development contributions do not provide a significant budget for wastewater capital expenditure over the next ten years for all these communities. 7.0 TRANSIT NZ - RODNEY DISTRICT COUNCIL MEMORANDUM OF UNDERSTANDING The memorandum of understanding ("MOU") between Transit New Zealand and the Rodney District Council demonstrates the future road growth required for the adequate provision of roading in the Warkworth area. The MOU has a relatively finite life out to 2021, which is less than the present study of the area to 2051. It is noted that within the MOU there is a statement which forecasts traffic growth at 110% of the present traffic volumes. This effectively doubles and it is assumed that the vast majority of this traffic is generated from population increases. As the MOU from Transit constrains the road at Warkworth to other areas within the Mahurangi region, it is considered that this growth for 20 years is consistent with that presented in the growth model prepared by Rob Bates. HARRISON GRIERSON CONSULTANTS LIMITED Page 43 Rodney District Council Mahurangi Wastewater Strategy 8.0 March 2008 HG Ref 1014-125641-01 CONCLUSION The RDC (Rob Bates) growth model has been used as the basis for the future demand drivers and is presented as a Moderate Growth case. A sensitivity analysis was carried out on the RDC (Rob Bates) Growth Model: a High Growth model with an additional 100% growth, and a Low Growth model of only 50% growth compared to the Moderate case. Under the Moderate Growth Model, there are still 1,866 allotments available for development beyond 2051, based on land available for development in the relevant Structure Plans, despite some areas having reached their Ultimare Development Capacity under Moderate Growth (namely Snells Beach, Snells Beach South, Omaha and Mahurangi East). Thus the Moderate Growth scenario can be catered for within the current Structure Plans, but not High Growth (which requires an extra 5,586 lots above Moderate Growth). The permanent population in the Mahurangi East region is projected to grow significantly in the future, and at this stage it is recommended to provide infrastructure for approximately 23,000 people in this region. If growth exceeds that in the RDC (Rob Bates) Growth Model, it may be necessary to provide infrastructure for 26,000 to 51,000 people in this region. 9.0 LIMITATIONS 9.1 GENERAL This report is for the use by Rodney District Council only, and should not be used or relied upon by any other person or entity or for any other project. This report has been prepared for the particular project described to us and its extent is limited to the scope of work agreed between the client and Harrison Grierson Consultants Limited. No responsibility is accepted by Harrison Grierson Consultants Limited or its directors, servants, agents, staff or employees for the accuracy of information provided by third parties and/or the use of any part of this report in any other context or for any other purposes. HARRISON GRIERSON CONSULTANTS LIMITED Page 44 APPENDIX 1 Planning Area Unit Map (Mahurangi East) DRAWINGS Appendix 5.3 Mahurangi Wastewater Master Plan – Treatment and Disposal Infrastructure Constraints Assessment (April 2009) RODNEY DISTRICT COUNCIL Mahurangi Wastewater Master Plan Treatment and Disposal Infrastructure Constraints Assessment April 2009 HG Ref 1014-125641-01 Doc Ref R004v2-AK125641-01-ich HARRISON GRIERSON CONSULTANTS LIMITED Document Control Record Client RODNEY DISTRICT COUNCIL Project Mahurangi Wastewater Master Plan HG Ref. 1014-125641-01 Doc Ref. R004v2-AK125641-01 Document Treatment and Disposal Infrastructure Constraints Assessment ISSUE AND REVISION RECORD Date of Issue April 2009 Status Final Originator Ian Ho - Process Engineer Reviewed Ash Deshpande - Associate/Lead Process Engineer Approved for Issue Stephen Finnemore - Senior Principal Office of Origin Auckland Telephone 09 917 5000 Facsimile 09 917 5001 Email [email protected] HARRISON GRIERSON CONSULTANTS LIMITED Page i RODNEY DISTRICT COUNCIL Mahurangi Wastewater Master Plan Treatment and Disposal Infrastructure Constraints Assessment April 2009 HG Ref 1014-125641-01 Doc Ref R004v2-AK125641-01 CONTENTS Page EXECUTIVE SUMMARY III PROJECT SCOPE 1 1.0 INTRODUCTION 1 1.1 METHODOLOGY 2 1.2 STUDY AREA 3 2.0 CONNECTED POPULATION PROJECTION 4 3.0 WASTEWATER FLOW AND LOADS PROJECTION 9 3.1 COMPARING WITH CURRENT FLOW AND LOAD DATA 9 3.2 WASTEWATER FLOW AND LOADS PROJECTION TABLES 4.0 CURRENT AND CONDITIONS LIKELY FUTURE RESOURCE 10 CONSENT 19 4.1 CURRENT RESOURCE CONSENT CONDITIONS 19 4.2 LIKELY FUTURE RESOURCE CONSENT CONDITIONS 20 5.0 ASSESSMENT OF CAPACITY AND OTHER CONSTRAINTS 23 5.1 SUB-AREA 1: WARKWORTH 24 5.2 SUB-AREA 2: SNELLS-ALGIES 29 5.3 SUB-AREA 3: OMAHA 34 5.4 OTHER AREAS 39 6.0 GAP ANALYSIS AND DESIGN ASSUMPTIONS PROPOSED 39 6.1 INFORMATION GAPS IDENTIFIED 39 6.2 DESIGN ASSUMPTIONS FOR THE INFORMATION GAPS 40 7.0 NEXT STAGE 41 8.0 REFERENCES 42 9.0 LIMITATIONS 43 9.1 GENERAL 43 9.2 PEER REVIEW 43 APPENDICES Appendix 1 Appendix 2 Study Area Map – Existing Wastewater Infrastructure Omaha Irrigation Capacity Assessment HARRISON GRIERSON CONSULTANTS LIMITED Page ii Rodney District Council Mahurangi Wastewater Master Plan Treatment and Disposal Infrastructure Constraint Assessment April 2009 HG Ref 1014-125641-01 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This report presented an assessment of capacity and constraints of the wastewater infrastructure (terminal pump station, wastewater treatment plant and final effluent disposal) for the Mahurangi Region. The study area encompasses townships and communities including Warkworth, Snells-Algies, Mahurangi East, Sandspit, Matakana, Rainbows End, Omaha, Point Wells, Leigh-Mathesons Bay, Baddeleys Beach and Buckleton Beach. This report is an update of October 2008 Final Draft issue to incorporate the additional land disposal irrigation investigations by others previously. This report summarised the population growth model provided by Rob Bates. The population growth model predicted that the population of Warkworth will reach 9,500 by 2051. The other high growth areas include Omaha and Snells-Algies. A capacity assessment of various wastewater infrastructure was undertaken; it was found that Warkworth WwTP, Omaha WwTP and Snells-Algies WwTP would need to be upgraded in the next 5 to 10 years to provide for additional treatment capacity for future growth and increase in treatment level. From the recent environmental monitoring studies, the final effluent discharge of Warkworth WwTP, Snells-Algies WwTP and Omaha WwTP have not resulted in noticeable adverse environmental effects. Smaller communities, such as Rainbows End, Baddeleys Beach, Buckleton Beach etc, are currently not reticulated to public wastewater collection and treatment systems. These communities are expected to be connected at some stage in the future, however the details of these new wastewater schemes have not been confirmed. In the next phase of this master plan study, the potential of implementing de-centralised wastewater treatment schemes (at community level) for these communities will be examined in more details. The next phase of this master plan is the identification and evaluation of Long List Options. This will include developing and evaluating of an exhaustive list of wastewater options. HARRISON GRIERSON CONSULTANTS LIMITED Doc Ref R004v2-AK125641-01-ich Page iii Rodney District Council Mahurangi Wastewater Master Plan Treatment and Disposal Infrastructure Constraint Assessment April 2009 HG Ref 1014-125641-01 PROJECT SCOPE The project scope for this study was defined and agreed between Rodney District Council and Harrison Grierson Consultants Limited. The study assessed the existing wastewater infrastructure, mostly treatment plants and effluent disposal facilities. The scope of the investigation included the following tasks: • Estimation of future wastewater flows based on the population growth model prepared by Rob Bates (Version 14, 26.08.2008) • Assessment of capacity bottlenecks • Assessment of other constraints (e.g. environmental issues, topography, location etc) • Identification of information gaps and ways to find out these missing information The outcomes of this report were then incorporated in the strategy study report. 1.0 INTRODUCTION Harrison Grierson is commissioned by Rodney District Council to undertake the Mahurangi Wastewater Master Plan. The outcome of this strategic study will recommend solutions for reticulation, treatment and disposal in the Mahurangi region. The region encompasses the following townships and communities: Warkworth, Snells Beach, Algies Bay, Mahurangi East (Martins Bay), Sandspit, Matakana, Omaha and Point Wells. Leigh is also included in this study as this community may be connected to a reticulation system some time in the future. Due to the nature and scale of this project, this master plan is undertaken in a number of logical sequenced tasks. This will provide a sustainable and practical solution in a cost effective manner without major delays or hold-ups. Following the first report titled “Work Package 1: Project Data Summary”, this report presents the following: • Population projection data to project future wastewater flow and loads • Capacity estimation of key wastewater treatment and disposal infrastructure items • Identification of capacity constraints in key wastewater treatment and disposal infrastructure items HARRISON GRIERSON CONSULTANTS LIMITED Doc Ref R004v2-AK125641-01-ich Page 1 Rodney District Council Mahurangi Wastewater Master Plan Treatment and Disposal Infrastructure Constraint Assessment • April 2009 HG Ref 1014-125641-01 Identification of information gaps and presentation of assumptions or further actions to fill these information gaps. This report is an update of September 2008 issue to incorporate additional investigations that were previously undertaken on the capacity constraints of Omaha Golf Course Irrigation, Effect of Treated Effluent Irrigation on Whangateau Harbour and Snells-Algies Outfall Investigation. 1.1 METHODOLOGY This section describes the methodology for projecting wastewater flow and loads, estimating the capacity and identify capacity shortfalls of key wastewater treatment and infrastructure items. Wastewater Flow and Loads Projection The following parameters are included as part of the projection: • • Wastewater Flow: - Average Dry Weather Flow, ADWF (m³/d) - Peak Wet Weather Flow, PWWF (m³/d) - Annual Average Flow, AAF (m³/d) if applicable Influent Pollutant Loads: - Carbonaceous BOD5 (kg/d) - Total Suspended Solids, TSS/NFR (kg/d) - Total Kjeldahl Nitrogen, TKN (kg/d) - Total Phosphorus, TP (kg/d) The recent wastewater flow figures (2006/7) will be used for estimating the per capita contribution rates for flow and loads. These values have been compared with typical generation data. Capacity Assessment of Key Wastewater Treatment and Disposal Infrastructure Items The capacity assessment includes terminal pump stations, inlet screens, treatment process (biological capacity) and effluent disposal fields. Previous investigations were referred to for capacity assessments of these infrastructure items. The values were compared with typical design guidelines. HARRISON GRIERSON CONSULTANTS LIMITED Doc Ref R004v2-AK125641-01-ich Page 2 Rodney District Council Mahurangi Wastewater Master Plan Treatment and Disposal Infrastructure Constraint Assessment April 2009 HG Ref 1014-125641-01 Where capacity values were not available, the capacity of these items were estimated from discussions with operational staff, best design guidelines or from suppliers. Assessment of Constraints In addition to identifying capacity constraints, other constraints such as land availability, environmental effects and cultural issues were also considered. The information was collected from discussions with Council engineers. Information Gap Analysis and Study Assumptions From the capacity and constraints assessment, a number of areas where are information gaps were identified. As some of these information gaps may require significant time to confirm through investigations or consultation, assumptions that have been made in this report as a basis for later study stages (strategic options evaluation and consultation). 1.2 STUDY AREA The study area encompasses major townships including Warkworth, Snells Beach, Algies Bay and Omaha and other communities surrounding these three major areas. The population growth study has consolidated the population projection data into the following areas: • Warkworth • Snells-Algies • Omaha • Tawharanui • Mahurangi East • Sandspit • Rainbows End • Sharp Road • Matakana • Matakana Valley • Point Wells • Omaha HARRISON GRIERSON CONSULTANTS LIMITED Doc Ref R004v2-AK125641-01-ich Page 3 Rodney District Council Mahurangi Wastewater Master Plan Treatment and Disposal Infrastructure Constraint Assessment • Leigh Town • Mathesons Bay Town • Leigh / Whangateau Rural • Buckleton Beach • Baddeleys Beach • Buckleton/ Baddeleys Rural April 2009 HG Ref 1014-125641-01 Out of the above list, only Warkworth, Snells-Algies, Omaha, Martins Bay (part of Mahurangi East) and Point Wells are currently serviced by public sewerage networks. Matakana is due to be connected to Omaha WwTP shortly. The rest of the areas are on private systems. The Water and Sanitary Services Assessment 2005 identified that some communities will require future public sewerage services as the existing private on-site systems do not meet the requirements. These include Sandspit, Rainbows End, Leigh, Mathesons Bay, Baddeleys Beach and Buckleton Beach in the study area. These areas are assumed to be connected to public sewerage schemes between 2016 and 2026. Rest of the un-reticulated areas are assumed to be serviced by on-site systems during the study period. These include Sharp Road, Leigh/Whangateau Rural, and Buckleton/Baddeleys Rural. Matakana Valley, These areas have been excluded in this master plan study. 2.0 CONNECTED POPULATION PROJECTION The population projection model (Revised 26 August 2008) was used for forecasting the wastewater flow and pollutant loads in the study area between 2006 and 2051. 2.1.1 Sewerage Extension Assumptions As discussed in Section 1.2, a number of areas are expected to be serviced by public sewerage networks in the study period. Considering the geographic location of various communities to the existing wastewater treatment systems, some connection assumptions have been made. Table 2 summarises the public sewerage network expansion assumed for this report. Table 2: Public Sewerage Network Connection Assumptions HARRISON GRIERSON CONSULTANTS LIMITED Doc Ref R004v2-AK125641-01-ich Page 4 Rodney District Council Mahurangi Wastewater Master Plan Treatment and Disposal Infrastructure Constraint Assessment Communities April 2009 HG Ref 1014-125641-01 Current Public Sewerage Connection Status Assumed Time for Connection Warkworth Connect to Warkworth WwTP - Snells-Algies Connect to Snell-Algies WwTP - Omaha Connect to Omaha WwTP - Some connected to Omaha WwTP Connect to Omaha WwTP in 2011 Some connected to Snells-Algies WwTP Assume all dwellings are connected in 2011 Sandspit Not connected Connect to Snells-Algies WwTP between 2020-2030 Rainbows End Not connected Assume public connection between 2020-2030 Matakana Connected to local wetland Connect to Omaha in 2008/9 Point Wells Connected to Omaha WwTP (2008) - Leigh Town Not connected Assume public connection between 2020-2030 Mathesons Bay Town Not connected Assume public connection between 2020-2030 Buckleton Beach Not connected Assume public connection between 2020-2030 Baddeleys Beach Not connected Assume public connection between 2020-2030 Tawharanui Mahurangi East Three sub-regional areas were considered in this study, they include: a) Warkworth i. b) c) d) Warkworth Township Snells-Algies i. Snells Beach & Algies Bay ii. Mahurangi East iii. Sandspit Omaha i. Omaha & Tawharanui ii. Matakana iii. Point Wells Others (The form of sewerage connections to be decided): i. Rainbows End HARRISON GRIERSON CONSULTANTS LIMITED Doc Ref R004v2-AK125641-01-ich Page 5 Rodney District Council Mahurangi Wastewater Master Plan Treatment and Disposal Infrastructure Constraint Assessment ii. Leigh Town iii. Mathesons Bay Town iv. Buckleton Beach v. Baddelleys Beach April 2009 HG Ref 1014-125641-01 It is noted that the connection of Sandspit to Snells-Algies WwTP is not confirmed and will require further assessment. 2.1.2 Population Growth Projection The population growth forecast was based on the growth model prepared by Rob Bates (Revision 26th August 2008). The population growth figures presented in this study is based on a gradual increase in permanent population and a steady decline in household occupancy (from 2.6 to 2.2 people/household between 2006 and 2051). The details of the population growth model are discussed separately in the HGCL report titled “Population Sensitivity Analysis” (September 2008, G Anderson). The peak summer population is the sum of permanent population and the peak occupancy rate in the holiday homes. The population figures presented in the report “Population Sensitivity Analysis” are adopted as the population basis for projecting wastewater flow and pollutant mass loads. The population projection presented in that report used three population growth rates (50%, 100% and 200%) to illustrate the sensitivity of the growth rate. Figures 2.1 to 2.3 presents the range of future connected population during the study period (2006-2051), extracted from the population sensitivity analysis. HARRISON GRIERSON CONSULTANTS LIMITED Doc Ref R004v2-AK125641-01-ich Page 6 Rodney District Council Mahurangi Wastewater Master Plan Treatment and Disposal Infrastructure Constraint Assessment April 2009 HG Ref 1014-125641-01 Figure 2.1: Connected Population Projection of Warkworth WwTP The connected population of Warkworth WwTP is expected to increase from 3300 to 9500 in the next 45 years. This corresponds to 190% increase of connected population. If the population growth rate is only 50% of the predicted value, the connected population in 2051 is approximately 6200, a 90% increase. If the population growth rate is twice of the predicted value, the connected population in 2051 is approximately 16300, a 400% increase. The summer population in the area will reach 9740 in 2051. The ratio of peak summer population to annual average population is 1.03 in 2051. Figure 2.2: Connected Population Projection of Snells-Algies WwTP The connected population of Senlls-Algies WwTP is expected to increase from 3700 to 5500 in the next 45 years. This corresponds to 50% increase of connected population. If the population growth rate is only 50% of the predicted value, the connected population in 2051 is approximately 4300, a 16% increase. If the population growth rate is twice of the predicted value, the connected population in 2051 is approximately 6300, a 70% increase. The summer population in the area will be approximately 7200 in 2051, this corresponds to 3.5% increase between 2006 and 2051. The ratio of peak summer population to annual average population will change from 1.9 in 2006 to 1.3 in 2051. This is because more dwellings are expected to be converted HARRISON GRIERSON CONSULTANTS LIMITED Doc Ref R004v2-AK125641-01-ich Page 7 Rodney District Council Mahurangi Wastewater Master Plan Treatment and Disposal Infrastructure Constraint Assessment April 2009 HG Ref 1014-125641-01 from being used as holiday homes to residential dwellings, and this will result in a gradual decline of peak summer population. Figure 2.3: Connected Population Projection of Omaha WwTP The connected population of Omaha WwTP is expected to increase from 470 to 2400 in the next 45 years. This corresponds to 400% increase of connected population. If the population growth rate is only 50% of the predicted value, the connected population in 2051 is approximately 1400, a 190% increase. If the population growth rate is twice of the predicted value, the connected population in 2051 is approximately 2358, a 400% increase. It is understood that the reason for similar projected connected population at 100% and 200% growth rate in 2051 is that the number of available lots for converting from holiday homes to permanent residential dwellings reaches saturation in 20112016 . The summer population in the area will be approximately 4900 in 2051. This corresponds to 8% increase between 2006 and 2051. The ratio of peak summer population to annual average population will change from 9.8 in 2006 to 2.1 in 2051. This is because more dwellings are expected to be converted from being used as holiday homes to residential dwellings, and this will result in a gradual decline of peak summer population. This master plan study only uses the 100% population growth rate for wastewater flow and pollutant mass loads projection. HARRISON GRIERSON CONSULTANTS LIMITED Doc Ref R004v2-AK125641-01-ich Page 8 Rodney District Council Mahurangi Wastewater Master Plan Treatment and Disposal Infrastructure Constraint Assessment 3.0 April 2009 HG Ref 1014-125641-01 WASTEWATER FLOW AND LOADS PROJECTION This section describes the projection of wastewater flow and loads. 3.1 COMPARING WITH CURRENT FLOW AND LOAD DATA Previous sewage sampling data were used for estimating the per capita contribution rates for flow and pollutant loads. Table 1 summarises the per capita generation rates estimated from the previous sampling programmes. Table 1: Comparison of Per Capita Generation Rates Parameters Flow/load per capita Warkworth Snells Omaha Typical Value 224 197 311 180-250 224 L/cap/d - 160 145 - 224 L/cap/d BOD5 49 48 49 65 65 g/cap/d TSS 89 - 87 70-90 90 g/cap/d TN 11 - 11 13-15 15 g/cap/d NH4N 10 - - 10 10 g/cap/d 4 - 2.9 3 4 g/cap/d Flow (ADWF) Flow (Summer) TP This Study Unit Note: 1. The per capita generation rates of Warkworth were derived from the influent sampling data between September and October 2007 based on a population of 3273 (August 2008 Population Model). 2. The per capita generation rates of Snells were derived from the fortnightly influent sampling data between July 2002 and February 2003 based on a population of 3339 (August 2008 Population Model). 3. The ADWF flow per capita generate rate of Omaha was derived from the wastewater flow monitoring between Jan 2005 and Dec 2007 based on a population of 354 (August 2008 Population Model) 4. The pollutant per capita generation rates of Omaha were derived from the influent sampling data in January 2008 based on a summer population of 3412 (August 2008 Population Model) From Table 1, the flow per capita rate varies between 197 to 311L/cap/day. The higher value at the Warkworth and Omaha catchment (224 and 311L/cap/day respectively) was due to high inflow/infiltration in the catchments. It is understood that Council intends to connect the new subdivisions with low pressure sewer network thus no further I/I increase is expected. Hence this master plan study adopts a ADWF flow per capita rate of 224L/cap/day. Instantaneous peak flow of conventional gravity connections is estimated based on 5x instantaneous peaking factor on ADWF which is part of Rodney District Council’s engineering standard. The instantaneous peak flow of low pressure sewer network is dependent on more detailed reticulation investigation which is HARRISON GRIERSON CONSULTANTS LIMITED Doc Ref R004v2-AK125641-01-ich Page 9 Rodney District Council Mahurangi Wastewater Master Plan Treatment and Disposal Infrastructure Constraint Assessment April 2009 HG Ref 1014-125641-01 beyond the scope of this study. Thus, this study only estimates the peak flow to the treatment plant based on conventional gravity sewer connections. The region has significant influx of holiday population during December and January period, particularly in Snells-Algies and Omaha areas. The estimated flow per capita is between 145 and 160L/cap/day. This study assumes a peak summer flow per capita of 224L/cap/day. The BOD5 per capita rates are around 49g/cap/day. The figures are lower than typical allowance of 65g/cap/day. This study assumes a prudent BOD5 per capita generation rate of 65g/cap/day. The TSS per capita rates are ranged around 90g/cap/day. similar than typical allowance of 70 to 90g/cap/day. The figures are For this project, solids generation rate of 90g/cap/day is adopted. The TN per capita rates are around 11 g/cap/day. The figures are slightly lower than typical allowance between 13 and 15g/cap/day. For this study, a prudent TN per capita rate of 15g/cap/day is adopted. The NH4N per capita rates are around 10g/cap/day. The figure is similar than typical allowance of 10g/cap/day. For this study, a NH4N per capita rate of 10g/cap/day is adopted. The TP per capita rates are ranged around 3 to 4g/cap/day. The figure is higher than typical allowance of 3g/cap/day. For this study, a TP per capita rate of 4g/cap/day is adopted. 3.2 WASTEWATER FLOW AND LOADS PROJECTION TABLES This section presents the wastewater flow and pollutant loads for various subareas in the study area based on the connected population figures. HARRISON GRIERSON CONSULTANTS LIMITED Doc Ref R004v2-AK125641-01-ich Page 10 Rodney District Council Mahurangi Wastewater Master Plan - Treatment and Disposal Infrastructure Constraint Assessment 3.2.1 April 2009 HG Ref 1014-125641-01 Sub-Regional Area 1: Warkworth - Wastewater Flow and Pollutant Mass Loads Projection This area encompasses major township of Warkworth and its wastewater is currently treated at Warkworth wastewater treatment plant. Table 3 presents the wastewater flow and pollutant mass loads projection for Warkworth area. Table 3: Warkworth Sub-Area: Flow and Loads Projection 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046 2051 Notes Average Population Population 3273 4026 4905 5726 6653 7290 8088 8540 9200 9466 3 733 902 1099 1283 1490 1633 1812 1913 2061 2120 3 3666 4509 5494 6413 7451 8165 9058 9564 10304 10602 AAF (m³/d) 834 1025 1249 1458 1694 1857 2060 2175 2343 2411 BOD (kg/d) 213 262 319 372 432 474 526 555 598 615 TSS (kg/d) 295 362 441 515 599 656 728 769 828 852 TN (kgN/d) 49 60 74 86 100 109 121 128 138 142 NH4N (kgN/d) TP (kgP/d) 33 40 49 57 67 73 81 85 92 95 10 12 15 17 20 22 24 26 28 28 ADWF (m /d) PWWF (m /d) 5x peaking factor Peak Summer Population (Dec/Jan Period) Population 3847 4572 5408 6187 7087 7686 8458 8873 9508 9740 862 1024 1211 1386 1588 1722 1894 1987 2130 2182 4309 5121 6057 6930 7938 8608 9472 9937 10649 10908 BOD (kg/d) 250 297 352 402 461 500 550 577 618 633 TSS (kg/d) 346 412 487 557 638 692 761 799 856 877 TN (kgN/d) 58 69 81 93 106 115 127 133 143 146 NH4N (kgN/d) TP (kgP/d) 38 46 54 62 71 77 85 89 95 97 12 14 16 19 21 23 25 27 29 29 3 Daily Flow (m /d) PWWF (m3/d) HARRISON GRIERSON CONSULTANTS LIMITED Doc Ref R004v2-AK125641-01-ich Flow/cap~224L/cap/d 5x peaking factor Page 11 Rodney District Council Mahurangi Wastewater Master Plan - Treatment and Disposal Infrastructure Constraint Assessment April 2009 HG Ref 1014-125641-01 Based on the flow projection for Warkworth presented in Table 3, the estimated ADWF will reach 2120m3/day in 2051. The future annual average flow in 2051 is around 2400m³/day, and this is estimated based on assuming the current ratio of AAF/ADWF 1.14 is unchanged. The peak summer daily flow will increase from 862m³/day to 2182m³/day. The peak summer daily flow to annual average daily flow will change from 1.17 to 1.03 during the study period. This is a result of a reduction of holiday homes in the area. In 2051, the difference between annual average and peak summer condition is expected to be marginal. The BOD5, TN and TP mass load are expected to increase to 615, 142 and 28kg/d on annual average basis. 3.2.2 Sub-Regional Area 2: Snells-Algies - Wastewater Flow and Pollutant Mass Loads Projection Snells-Algies area comprise Snells Beach, Algies Bay, Sandspit and Mahurangi East. Sandspit is currently serviced by private onsite systems and part of Mahurangi East (Martins Bay) is connected to the Snells-Algies WwTP. In this study, it is assumed that Mahurangi East is all connected to the Snells-Algies WwTP at the beginning of the study period while Sandspit will be connected to Snells-Algies WwTP in 2016. Currently, there is no financial plan mentioned in the 2006 LTCCP to connect Sandspit to the Snells-Algies sewerage network. Table 4 presents the wastewater flow and pollutant mass loads projection for Snells-Algies area. Table 4: Snells-Algies Sub-Area: Flow and Loads Projection 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046 2051 Notes Average Population Population 3660 4163 4694 4758 4972 5025 5242 5284 5503 5532 3 820 933 1051 1066 1114 1126 1174 1184 1233 1239 3 4099 4663 5257 5329 5569 5629 5871 5918 6163 6196 BOD (kg/d) 238 271 305 309 323 327 341 343 358 360 TSS (kg/d) 329 375 422 428 447 452 472 476 495 498 TN (kgN/d) 55 62 70 71 75 75 79 79 83 83 NH4N (kgN/d) TP (kgP/d) 37 42 47 48 50 50 52 53 55 55 11 12 14 14 15 15 16 16 17 17 ADWF (m /d) PWWF (m /d) HARRISON GRIERSON CONSULTANTS LIMITED Doc Ref R004v2-AK125641-01-ich 5x peaking factor Page 12
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