DOING BUSINESS UNDER MACRON’S PRESIDENCY
MAY 2017
French President-elect Emmanuel Macron has a major task ahead of him: his presidency will test whether a centrist, pro-European leader can govern France and whether an
inexperienced politician can do better than the “traditional” political classes. His pro-European mindset will face a strong Euro-skepticism and reluctance to globalization strongly
anchored in French culture. Some of Macron’s proposals seek to further liberalize the
French economy, reduce public deficit, more flexible labor market regulations and refresh
the political domaine by introducing new rules and more transparency.
From a geopolitical perspective, Macron will preserve France’s alliance with Germany to
maintain the Euro, political stability and peace in Europe. France will likely try to impose
a “political” management of the Eurozone with Germany by creating a Euro governance,
benefiting from the German political agenda (general elections in September).
Paris and Berlin will likely pressure the UK through isolation and defending the indivisibility
of the European Union. Macron will maintain the Atlantic Alliance as a pivot of the French
foreign policy to prevent President Vladmir Putin from further gaining influence in Europe.
1 - PRESIDENT MACRON,
A GAME CHANGER AND A “CAUTIOUS
TRANSGRESSIVE” LEADER
• Psychology of the President-elect
Emmanuel Macron, 39 years old, is the youngest President
to be elected in France since 1958. Former investment
banker, he has an experience in the French administration
as civil servant, President Hollande’s senior advisor and
former Minister for Economy. He has never been elected
at national or local level, which is a disruption regarding
the “established” French political elite. He belongs to a
new generation of leaders (similar to Matteo Renzi, Justin Trudeau or David Cameron) but is not a professional
politician. Indeed one of his main weaknesses is his lack of
political experience.
Due to his background and his experience as a former
Rothschild banker, Emmanuel Macron can be seen as a
“game changer” in French politics. By bypassing the traditional political parties and creating “En Marche” his own
movement (not a political party) intended to be neither left
nor right wing, just one year before the Presidential election, Emmanuel Macron launched a “takeover bid” against
the French political order and the Presidency. To do so, he
embraced the codes of the digital economy and the private sector.
At the same time, he usually makes thoughtful decisions
after discussions and information briefings, taking opportunities, but not acting precipitously. He gives prominence
to his personal image and reputation and seeks to be well
judged by the people and public and to reach consensus. He has been called a flip flopper with unclear stanc-
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es on certain issues or without a clear political program.
This might have an impact on his willingness to reform the
French economy in order to avoid social conflicts.
• A philosopher involved in politics
Emmanuel Macron has an academic background as assistant of the French philosopher Paul Ricoeur. Macron is inspired by John Rowls (as Tony Blair) and his vision of egalitarian liberalism. From a political perspective, he believes
policy decisions must be open to all people, regardless of
their situation in life and through the democratic process.
Macron believes in individual emancipation which reconciles the competing claims of the values of fairness, freedom and equality.
• Transparency but not media centric
Emmanuel Macron is advocating for more transparency
in politics, building a new relationship with the journalists and the media, which is more professional and less
founded on the “off-the-record” culture characteristic of
traditional French political leaders. He tends not to trust
journalists and works to avoid any risk of leaks. For example, even if Emmanuel Macron enjoys great populary and
strong media interest, his movement has used social media to recruit supporters and engage voters directly rather
than the press.
• A business leadership style
Emmanuel Macron is used to working with a very small,
closed team of trusted individuals. His government will likely be composed as such, a small team of 15 people, composed of politicians and experts from the private sector.
He has adopted the codes of business management with
a hierarchy and division of roles, looking for agility, efficiency and short-term results. This is in contradiction with the
French bureaucratic culture and a strong administrative
system.
He is used working closely with experts and professional
advisors, but is also known to be “a lonely leader”.
2 - A PRO-BUSINESS ENVIRONNEMENT AND
AGENDA
• Crisis averted for the European Union
French voters stopped the uncertainty on the future of the
EU. By voting for a pro-Europe President, the French have
made the choice to give the European member states a
chance to reform the EU system. Even if the Euroskepticism remains strong in France, Emmanuel Macron is ad-
vocating for a stronger integrated Europe and a stronger
partnership with Germany. The Franco-German link should
remain the pivot of the EU. Even if there will be discussions
and disagreements between Paris and Berlin, both countries will remain allies to face the EU challenges. However,
Macron might be President of a more integrated Europe
by trying to open new political chapter at the EU. Macron
will join the European Council in a stronger position than
Hollande to defend his vision of the future of Europe and
the Euro. This position should allow France to develop its
influence in Brussels.
• Key reforms to come
Emmanuel Macron’s principle mission is to reform the
French economy. Since the beginning of his public life, he
has always promoted a pro-business ideology calling
for liberalization of the French economy, providing more
competitiveness to businesses in France and advocating
for an open market world. Even if he describes himself as
being neither left nor right wing leader, he is in favor of a
liberal economy and has positioned himself against administratives barriers.
At the same time, he is in favor of State interventionism
with the aim of protecting French interests. He was very
active during important deals involving French industrial champions (GE-Alstom, SFR) or acted as shareholder activist during his term as Minister of Economy (Renault). During his campaign, he promoted the concept of
State-Strategist in economic policy. He also planned to
inject 50 billion Euros in public funds in infrastructure in the
next 5 years.
His first reforms in office will be:
- A public finance audit to identify 60 billion euros
of savings in the public sector in June 2017
- A reform of the labor law introducting more flexibility during the summer 2017
- A corporate tax reduction from 33% to 25%
- Tax reform to foster investment in the French
economy and stabilize the French tax system in
October 2017
- A tax boost for businesses by reducing taxes and
decreasing payroll taxes to create jobs in January
2018.
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• Strengthening France’s attractiveness
Emmanuel Macron is counting on his election and his personal image to reinforce the attractiveness of the country
and promote a positive and optimistic image of France.
One of his objectives is to support start ups and innovative businesses. He sees The Brexit as an opportunity to
convince foreign businesses operating in Europe to invest
in France to create jobs and value. For instance, one of his
first actions as new President will be to promote Paris’ bid
for the 2024 Summer Olympics.
3 - MACRON’S MAIN CHALLENGES
Emmanuel Macron will face huge challenges. After the
election, France is more than ever divided. This election has
revealed a new polarization axis - while the political spectrum was traditionally polarized between right and left, a
new, clear political divide has emerged with this election:
on one hand those supporting Europe, globalization and
an open society (elites); on the other, those seeing Europe
and globalization as a danger and supporting of economic
nationalism (working classes).
Emmanuel Macron has been elected President against
Marine Le Pen with a quite low score as he got less than
24% during the first round (vs 28% for F. Hollande in 2012),
many commentators and detractors underlining his lake
of legitimacy. Macron’s challenge will be to gather a stable majority after the legislative elections in June. This can
lead to a coalition government (center-left/center-right)
which is not in the French political culture.
Should a coalition government take form, Macron will
struggle to pass his reforms without any political experience. He will also face the strong opposition of the French
unions particularly on the liberalization of the economy, labor reforms and cuts on public spending.
4 - ENGAGING THE FRENCH ADMINISTRATION
UNDER MACRON
Macron’s Presidency will likely represent a break in the way
the French Government works. France is opening a new
era of its political culture and a new generation is gaining
access to the power.
This offers an opportunity for the private sector and businesses to reset public affairs practices and enter into a
new area of communication with the public sector. Regarding the social and economic situation in France, President Macron and his administration will have to demonstrate results and efficiency very quickly.
This would open doors to new ways of collaboration between the Administration and the private sector. Thanks to
this new generation of leaders open to the private sector,
using social media and not reluctant to public consultations, the business community in France has a historical
opportunity to start a new relationship with the Government and to contribute in transparent and ethical way in
redefining public policies.
Public affairs and lobbying practices in France should be
more open to society in order to facilitate consensus for
equal opportunity.
Social media campaigns, coalitions building and movement to federate public opinion and stakeholders will be
the new way to share business visions and provide/share
efficient solutions directly to the President, the Parliament
and the Government.
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