Doprava a spoje –elektronický časopis Fakulty prevádzky a ekonomiky
dopravy a spojov Žilinskej univerzity v Žiline, ISSN 1336-7676
RISK ANALYSIS OF FINANCING PUBLIC PASSENGER TRANSPORT
Miloš Poliak1
Introduction
In Slovak Republic (SR) the transport service with a public transport from the point of
view of public sources become even difficult. On the one hand there are present demands of
legislation of European Union4 that have to be accepted by each Community member state,
on the other hand there is problematic to finance the regional transport service in
circumstances of decreaing demand in public transport. The basis aim of demands of the
European Union legislation in relation to transport service by public transport is a creation of
conditions for providing of effective and quality public service. This is financed from public
sources through determination of its optimal volume for ensuring of the transport
requirements of population for ways to the schools, offices, courts, health centres providing
basic health care, institutions of social service and work, including transport aback and
effective using of public sources for their assurance.
There are expressive problems with financing of public transport in SR, first of all in a
respect of decreasing demand in public transport and also from the reason of discoordinated
transport service assurance by more operators those outputs are ordered by more institutions
of public administration. [2].
The aim of this submission is to point to the possibilities of optimalization of spending
of the public sources identified for transport servis by public transport assurance, what were
identified at the base of project “The transport service regional plan processing – pilot study”4
solution and authors´ following research in relation to the public transport financing.
By the financing of public transport risk analysis it is possible to identify the two groups
of risks according to that whether is possible these risks to direct influence by legislative
changes from the position of output buyer (it means public administration) or is possible to
influence them only indirect. The classification of risks is presented at a figure Nr. 1.
1
Doc. Ing. Miloš Poliak, PhD., University of Žilina, Faculty of Operation and Economics of Transport and
Communications, Department of Road and Urban Transport, Univerzitna 1, 01026 Žilina, Slovakia, email:
[email protected]
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Figure 1
The risks classification of transport service financing from public sources
1. Non-influenceable risks from the position of public administration
In the midst of risks influencing on public transport by public mass transport service and
what are non-influenceable from the position of public administration is possible to assign:
•
a decreasing of public mass transport output,
•
an increasing of the individual motorism,
•
population structure change.
1.1. A decreasing of public mass transport output
In 1995 – 2010 in public mass transport the output have markedly decreased in bus and
rail transport. When in 1995 the transportation output of bus transport reached the level of
11 191 of mill. pass-kilometres, in 2010 the year realised output by bus transport was 4 436 of
mill. pass-kilometres (see the table 1), what represents the output decreasing about 60.36 per
cent. A similar development is also in road transport what in 1995 has reached the transport
output level of 4 202 of mill. pass-kilometres. In 2010 the rail transport transportation output
reached the level of 2 309 of mill. pass-kilometres yearly only what represents the output
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decreasing about 45.05 per cent (see the table 1). The output development during all period
reached a decreasing tendence.
With the declining demand it is not possible to decline the number of regional transport
service ordered kilometres from the position of output buyers, because then the transport
service of all villages (for what the citizens have the right according to valid legislation)
wouldn´t be ensured. It means that with decreasing demand at the side of passengers the
transport output of public mass transport is decreasing and than the revenue of transporter are
decreasing too. But the costs are constant by the same transport service of area.
Table 1
Total passenger transport performance (mill. pass-km)
Year
Road public transport
Loss (per cent)2
Roail public
transport
Loss (per cent)
1995
11 191
0
2005
7 525
32,76 %
2007
7 596
32,12 %
2008
6 446
42,40 %
2009
4 538
59,45 %
2010
4 436
60,36 %
4 202
2 182
2 165
2 296
2 264
2 309
0
48,07 %
48,48 %
45,36 %
46,12 %
45,05 %
Data source: authors´ processing on the base of datas from [11]
To define a volume of sources by what the public administration has to support the mass
public transport realised output, what the transporter in own interest will never operate or will
not operate in requested measure, we use a formula:
Documented loss = (Economic rightful costs + Fair profit) – Takings
With rakings reduction in public mass transport and constant number of lines, it means
constant economic rightful costs, is a sources volume needed to pay from public sources
increasing. It means that with a number of transported people in public mass transport
reduction the financial requests for public sources are increasing. Listed claim is possible to
verify with the really paid off resources from public sources in time period 2000-2010, those
are listed in the table 2.
2
Transport output decreasing is processed in relation to transportation output realised in 1995
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Doprava a spoje –elektronický časopis Fakulty prevádzky a ekonomiky
dopravy a spojov Žilinskej univerzity v Žiline, ISSN 1336-7676
Table 2
Subsidies to scheduled public passenger transport (Mill.EUR)
State budget
Railway
2000
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
156
119
151
160
166
270
228
Buses and couches excl.
Urban Public Transport
26
39
56
65
71
98
100
Urban Public Transport
21
43
49
54
78
80
79
203
200
256
279
315
448
406
Total
The individual motorism increasing
A decreasing of number of people transported by public mass transport is closely
associated to citizens´ motorism. That passenger, who has bought an motor vehicle from the
reason of individual automobile transport expedience for passenger, is very problematic to
obtain for mass public transport re-using .
Table 3
The correlation coefficient for selected factors and transport outputs of public mass
transport
Mode of transport
The fare expressed in Number of passenger
Unemployment rate
eur/pass-kilometre
vehicles
Bus transport
-0,90235
-0,97225
-0,87060
Railway transport
-0,64419
-0,88483
-0,65144
Data source: [4]
On the base of calculations processed in [4] is in the table 3 expressed a coefficient of
selected factors and number of transported people in bus and railway transport in SR
correlation. The coefficient of number of transported people in bus and railway transport
correlation achieves the high value of indirect depencence in relation to the number of
registered passenger vehicles. In case of bus transport the correlation coefficient achieves a
value of -0,97225 and in case of railway transport is the coefficient value in a level of 0,88483, what means that the number of transported people in public mass transport is
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decreasing with an increasing of the operating passenger vehicles number. Quoted fact causes
an increasing of the necessary resources from public sources for the public mass transport
financing.
The number of registered motor vehicles is possible to express also with an automobiles
degree that is defined like a number of citizens of defined area unit falling on one passenger
car [1]. The automobiles degree in 2006 reached in SR the value of 247 passenger car for
1000 citizens [6], [7].
Figure 2
The automobile degree in European countries in 2006
700
Passenger cars/1000 citizens
.
600
500
400
300
200
CH
IS
NO
TR
HR
MK
UK
FI
SE
SI
SK
PT
RO
PL
AT
NL
MT
HU
LT
LU
LV
IT
CY
FR
ES
IE
EL
EE
DE
CZ
DK
BE
BG
EU15
0
EU27
100
In a case we compare an automobile degree in SR with other countries of EU, those
average automobile degree is abreast of 466 of passenger cars for 1000 citizens and in a case
of former old 15 member countries of EU where the automobile degree is abreast of 508 of
passenger cars for 1000 citizens, we will be able to state, that in SR is the number of operating
passenger cars coming for 1000 citizens markedly lower (see the picture 2). In the frame of
EU member countries, the lower value of automobiles degree achieves only Romania (167 of
passenger cars per 1000 citizens) and Bulgaria (230 of passenger cars per 1000 citizens).
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From the countries, which are candidates for EU membership (Croatia, Macedonia, Turkey),
only in Croatia is the automobiles degree higher.
In relation to the operating vehicles number is necessary to expect that with a SR living
standard approximation to other EU member states is also the automobiles degree of SR to
average value of this indicator in the area of EU approximating. That means with an expecting
increasing of operating passenger cars number is necessary to expect following public mass
transport output decreasing what causes following demands for public sources in relation to
transport service by public mass transport financing increasing.
Population structure change
A population structure change is also influencing the demands for transport service
output financing from public sources because the selected groups of people are transported for
lower fare according to the supporting of vulnerable groups of inhabitants (children, students,
handicapped people, seniors) principles.
In SR is the reduced-fare tickets used as :
•
school fare (50 per cent reduction from the price of regular fare)- transported are:
• children from 6 to 15 years old,
• students to 26 years old,
•
another fare – transported are:
• inhabitants up to 70 years old (registration fare 0,20 € for every started 50 kms),
• hard-hit inhabitants (50 per cent reduction from the price of regular fare),
• parents for visiting children those are physically disabled, mentally affected or sensory
disabled, for visiting chronic ill those are placed in facilities in area of SR (50 per cent
reduction from the price of regular fare).
That means in case of preservation of transporters´tranport output but transported
people structure is not changed (for example through higher share of passengers transporting
for reduced fare), the transporters´ revenues will be decreased and with this are the demands
for public sources connected.
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As an example of travelling public structure change is in the table 4 processed a
summary of people transported in bus transport in SR in 2000 – 2006. When in 2000 were in
bus transport transported 72.7 per cent of passengers for regular fare, in 2006 the share of
passengers´ without fare-reduction was in level of 68 per cent.
Table 4
A number of travelled people in bus transport in SR
Fare
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Regular
309 345
281 110
269 600
244 296
240 963
202 943
200 870
School
107 100
106 120
109 244
98 756
75 201
76 743
86 887
9 181
18 589
11 829
14 800
16 662
12 559
7 474
Another
Data source: authors´ processing
On the base of presented analysis is possible to state that from the public mass transport
the most decrescent passengers are those, who have the possibility to travel by another mean
of transport – first of all by passenger car and who have been travelled for regular fare.
Students, who usually have no possibility to travel by passenger car excepting front-seat
passengers and are liable to compulsory education, they are remaining in public mass
transport system. Similarly in case of pensioners there is presently limited transition to an
individual motorism. Because in present persist a tendence of increasing of passengers
travelling for reduced fare number, it is necessary to expect the demands of public resources
increasing also from this reason. The reduced fare creates the lower transporters´ revenues
comparing with regular fare.
1.2
Influenceable risks from the position of public administration
In the midst of risks influencing on public transport by public mass transport service and
what are influenceable from the position of public administration is possible to assign:
•
Transport service uncoordinated ordering and
•
the transport service output quality deficient.
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Transport service uncoordinated ordering
There is not the ordering of regional transport outputs ensured from one office where
also the transport service outputs coordination would be ensured in SR. The transport service
of the region is ordered by two places:
•
Ministry of Transport, Posts and Telecommunication of Slovak Republic – it orders the
regional railway transport outputs,
•
relevant local municipalities – they order the suburban bus transport outputs .
There is no regulation where would by output buyer´s duty to coordinate the traffic-
orders with another output buyer, what causes:
•
non-consequential regional transport service (for example: 2 minutes before train arrival
is the bus departure from the same stop planned),
•
parallel regional transport service (in same time sequence is the bus and also the train line
ordered and then no service is ensured for a logner time).
It is necessary to notice that in case of the parallel transport service, first of all when two
deficiently occupied lines are ordered, the resources from public sources (that is necessary to
buy for public interest outputs) are markedly grossed up. As an example it is possible to
present parallelism of deficiently loaded train of regional transport and a link of bus transport
on the line Skalité – Čadca (table 5). Both links have about equal departure from a home
station and arrival to a terminal station and they together transport 42 passenger at average.
One line Nr. 113, which capacity of vehicle is 45 places for sitting and 27 places for standing,
would be able to transport the both links. With operating of both links are the revenues
devided between two transporters and there is necessary to pay-off the documented loss for
every transport mode from public sources. There is a lot of similarly ensured links in the
transport service area of SR.
Because of this reason it is necessary to deal with the public mass transport service
ordering coordination for effective spending of resources from public sources.
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Table 5
An example of parallel transport service of train Os 4125 and line Nr. 113 in link 502406
Station/train
Os4125
502406 - 113
Skalité
12:06
12:05
Čadca
12:29
12:35
17
25
Average number of passengers
Data source: authors´ processing on the base of datas from valid traffic orders in 2008 and on the base of outputs
from electronic cashier of transporter SAD Žilina Inc. and from a survey realised by ZSSK Slovensko, Inc.
The transport service output quality deficient
On the present in frame of transport service ordering there is no transport service quality
assessment system applied in SR although from the position of transport service buyers there
are existing framing instruments for regional quality of passengers transport ensurance
assessment .
A total quality of public mass transport contains many criteria what are often different
from the point of view of individual passenger demands. Criteria, that are representing a
customer´s pointo of view for provided service, are possible to devide into eight cathegories:
•
availability – is the offered service measure in geographic, time, frequence and transport
vehicle term,
•
accessibility – it means an access into passengers´ public mass transport system including
connection with another transport mode,
•
information – is systematic provideng of knowledge about public mass transport system
that have to help by planning and realising of ways,
•
time – it means the time aspects that are important by planning and realising of ways,
•
customers care – it means service elements that are introducing closest practice
connection between standard service and some individual customer,
•
comfort – it means service element that are established with the aim of agreeable and
comfortable ways by public mass transport,
•
safety – characteristic by customer´s feeling of personal protection that is derivatived
from really established measures and from action leading to ensure that customer are
conscious about this measures,
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Doprava a spoje –elektronický časopis Fakulty prevádzky a ekonomiky
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•
living environment impacts – effect for livin environment resulting from public mass
transport service providing.
Because the loss of customer causes a demand on public financies increasing, it is
necessary from the position of output buyer to ask transporter to fulfil some special quality
criteria, that should the output buyer detachedly access. Anyway it is necessary to regularize
the demands for asked quality in the contract about output in public interest and to define an
transporter´s anction in case of demands for provided services quality will be broaken.
Conclusion
Presently in Slovak Republic persists the strong decreasing of passengers´mass transport
output what causes the transport service financing from public sources problems. With a
decreasing of passengers are decreasing also the receipts for transportation what is necessary
to cover from public sources in form of documented loss to the transporters which realize the
uncharged output also by passengers´ decreasing. It is important to introduce a reality that in
spite of problem with funds there is still not optimalized the regional transport service output
ordering that is not ordered from one source. The transport service is ordered from the
Ministry of Transport, Posts and Telecommunications of Slovak Republic in frame of railway
transport and from the autonomous regions in frame of suburban bus transport. The first
condition of public sources expenditure optimalization is the ordering of outputs from one
place what presently seems to be advantageous to order from a position of autonomous
region.
References
[1] ĎURČO, P. a kol.: Bezpečnostnoprávna terminológia. Bratislava: Akadémia Policajného
zboru v Bratislave, 2007. 176 s. ISBN 978-80-8054-406-5
[2] GNAP, J. – KONEČNÝ, V.: Dopravná politika vo vzťahu k cestnej doprave a trvalo
udržateľný rozvoj = Transport policy related to road transport and sustainable
development. In: Komunikácie - vedecké listy Žilinskej univerzity = Communications scientific letters of the University of Žilina. Roč. 5, č. 1 (2003), s. 52-61.
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Doprava a spoje –elektronický časopis Fakulty prevádzky a ekonomiky
dopravy a spojov Žilinskej univerzity v Žiline, ISSN 1336-7676
[3] POLIAK, M. – KONEČNÝ, V.: Trh a financovanie hromadnej osobnej dopravy, 1.
vydanie monografie; ŽU v Žiline/EDIS vydavateľstvo ŽU; 2009;
[4] POLIAK, M.: Financovanie pravidelnej hromadnej osobnej dopravy vo väzbe na tarifnú
politiku - dizertačná práca; vedný odbor 62-03-9 Odvetvové a prierezové ekonomiky;
Fakulta prevádzky a ekonomiky dopravy a spojov, ŽU v Žiline, 2003
[5] POLIAKOVÁ, A.: Vývoj dotácií a problematika výnosov z dotácií poskytnutých
dopravnému podniku; In: Aktuální problémy v dopravě 2009 : sborník příspěvků. Pardubice: Institut Jana Pernera v Praze ve spolupráci s Přepravní laboratoří Dopravní
fakulty Jana Pernera, 2009. - ISBN 978-80-86530-58-1
[6] EU energy and transport in figures – statistical pocketbook 2007/2008; Published by
Directorate – General for Energy and Transport, European Communities; 2008; ISBN
789-92-79-07082-2;
[7] Europen Road Statistics; edited by European Union Road Federation; Brussels; Belgium;
2008
[8] European Parliament and Commision Regulation (ES) Nr. 1370/2007 about services in
public interest in railway and road passenger transport what deletes the Regulations of
Commision Nr. 1191/69 and Nr. 1107/70
[9] Project MDPT SR/PRODOS-01/2006 – Transport service regional plan elaboration –
pilot study; July 2007
[10] STN EN 13816 – Transport. Logistics and service. Public passenger transport. Definition,
targets and service quality measurement.
Príspevok bol vypracovaný s podporou projektu:
MŠ SR VEGA č. 1/0144/11 POLIAK, M.: Vplyv zmeny kvality poskytovaných služieb verejnej
hromadnej osobnej dopravy na zvyšovanie jej konkurencieschopnosti vo vzťahu
k individuálnemu motorizmu
Referee:
Doc. Ing. Pavel Drdla, PhD., Univerzita Pardubice; Dopravní fakulta Jana Pernera
Enter to publishing: 26th October 2011
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