By Vanessa Van Edwards
Science of People
Overview:
The goal of our lab, the Science of People is to find patterns in human behavior.
We wanted to examine presidential inaugural addresses.
What patterns can be found in the last 20 presidential Inaugural addresses? Are
there differences in body language, verbal patterns and persuasiveness? The
answers might surprise you. We answer the following questions:
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Which president used the most hand gestures?
Which president smiled the most? The least?
Which party uses more negative language?
Which president told the most stories in his address? The least?
Who spoke the longest? The shortest?
Which president cited the most data? The least?
What are the most popular tie colors?
Which party is more individualistic (uses more I, Me, My) versus the party
that is more community centric (uses more Us, We, Our)?
Which president used the most alpha body language? The least?
Which party uses the most emotional language?
Who had the best weather?
Every president except one wore black suits. Who wore grey?
This report outlines the patterns in the last 20 presidential inaugural
addresses.
Scope:
This analysis examines the verbal and nonverbal patterns all of the 20
presidential inaugural addresses given since Harry Truman’s in 1949.
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We compared 11 addresses given by Republican presidents and 9
addresses by Democratic presidents. The analysis also includes historical patterns. In the cases where a
president was elected for a 2nd term and gave a 2nd inaugural address,
the scores in each metric represent an average of that president’s two
addresses.
Metrics:
We analyzed these addresses on a total of 13 different metrics divided into 3
categories:
Nonverbal Patterns:
The coders in our human behavior research lab analyzed the following
categories.
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Amount of hand gestures
Number of smiles
Frequency of alpha body language or pride posing
Context Patterns:
We also looked at some contextual cues to see if there were any interesting
patterns. We examined the following:
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Clothing colors
Weather
Speech length
Verbal Patterns: We partnered with Quantified Communications to use their software to analyze
the transcript of each speech.
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Emotional language
Sharing of data and numbers
Negative and positive language Use of personal vs. impersonal pronouns: “I” language vs “We” language Storytelling
Trustworthy language
Clarity Note from Quantified Communications: With the exception of the pronoun
category, the research-validated algorithms used to score each metric are
composed of several linguistic attributes proven to measure that particular
element of communication effectiveness. We use our automated NLP platform to
measure each communication, then index the raw scores in each metric against
millions of data points in our global communication database. The % scores in
each metric reflect how that speaker performs compared to the average
communicator in that database.
The Puzzle:
We like to believe we pick Presidents based on the issues, but do we really?
According to the American Psychological Associationi 27% of American voters
claim they vote for presidential candidates primarily based on the nominee's
character and moral values.
We tend to guess at someone’s character, personality and moral compass by
observing their body language and analyzing verbal cuesii. The question is: What
cues are being sent during a Presidential inaugural address? And what
does this say about the President and his party?
Key Findings:
Here are our key findings in each metric with historical patterns and party
differences.
#1: Hand Gestures
Handiii gestures are an important mark of charisma for political candidates. We
marked both amount of hand gestures as well as specific emblems. Presidents
most frequently use the thumbs up gesture, the point and the open palm.
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Donald Trump used the most hand gestures—641 in just 17 minutes!
Ronald Reagan and Jimmy Carter relied to heavily on their podium and
used none.
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Overall Democrats are more handsy than Republicans.
#2: Smiling
Smiling can be a signal of optimism, warmth and openness. Which president
smiled the most? And which is the happier partier? Based on smiles, here’s what
we found:
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Barack Obama (second term) and George Bush smiled the most!
What’s interesting is every president smiled more in their second
term inaugural address than their first—maybe they get more relaxed
the second time around.
John F. Kennedy and Harry S. Truman smiled the least.
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Republicans smiled more—but not by much!
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#3: Pride Posing
Researchers from the University of British Columbiaiv found that winning athletes
use broad, expansive gestures. We coded presidential candidates on their alpha
body language – or expansive gestures. Here’s who posed the most:
1. Donald Trump: Showed pride 20 times.
2. Barack Obama (Second Term) Showed pride 8 times.
3. Bill Clinton (First Term) Showed pride 4 times.
Overall Republicans use slightly more pride gestures than Democrats.
Psychologistsv have also surveyed 846 academic historians, and found that
achievement-striving presidents do best in office. "Achievement-striving means
people have high goals, but more importantly, they work hard to achieve them,"
says the author. "They stay focused; they are kind of workaholics."vi In other
words, we like presidents who strive to be winners. Pride posing can be an
indication of an achievement striving president.
#4: Clothing Colors
We were curious about tie color, shirt color and suit color. The shirt color data
was a dud—every president in this sample wore a white shirt. But here is the
breakdown of tie color:
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The most popular tie color is blue, followed closely by red and a grey/blue
mix.
BOTH Republicans and s wore blue and red—looks like most candidates
don’t stick to their party color.
Every president wore a black suit except one…Dwight D. Eisenhower:
#5: Weather
We were curious about who had the best and worst weather days. Here’s who
had bad luck:
Here’s who had good luck:
#6: Speech Length
Who spoke the longest? And which party is the wordiest?
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The shortest inaugural address in the last 20 presidents was Gerald Ford
at 8 minutes—surprisingly he also had the best weather! Too bad he didn’t
use it.
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The longest speeches were Harry S. Truman at 22 minutes and George
W. Bush (second term) at 21 minutes.
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Republicans are the verbose party—they spoke far more than Democratic
presidents.
#7: Emotional Language
Emotionally charged language is use of imagery and metaphors that help
audiences become personally invested in the message.
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George W. Bush used the most emotion in his inaugural addresses, while
President Johnson used the least.
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Republican presidents use 9.5% more emotion than Democratic
presidents during their inaugural addresses.
A great example of emotional language is by George W. Bush:
“By our efforts we have lit a fire as well; a fire in the minds of men. It warms those
who feel its power. It burns those who fight its progress. And one day this
untamed fire of freedom will reach the darkest corners of our world. “
- George W. Bush, 2nd Inaugural Address, 2005
#8: Sharing of Data and Numbers
Some presidents appeal to logic more than others. Speaking with logic is when a
president uses language establishing research and proof or cites data and
statistics to support their arguments.
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President Harry S. Truman used the most logic in his inaugural address,
while President Barack Obama used the least.
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Republican presidents use 3.2% less logic than Democratic presidents
during their inaugural addresses.
A great example of the use of logic is by Harry S. Truman:
“We are ready to undertake new projects to strengthen a free world. In the
coming years, our program for peace and freedom will emphasize four major
courses of action. [...] On the basis of these four major courses of action we hope
to help create the conditions that will lead eventually to personal freedom and
happiness for all mankind.”
- Harry Truman, Inaugural Address, 1949
#9: Negative and Positive Language The use of negative or positive language in an address can indicate a president’s
perspective.
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President John F. Kennedy used the most negative language in his
inaugural address; President George Bush Sr., the least.
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President Eisenhower used the most positive language in his inaugural
addresses; President Johnson used the least.
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Republican presidents use 10.6% less negative language than Democratic
presidents during their inaugural addresses.
Republican presidents ALSO use 8.4% more positive language. In other
words, the Republican presidents tend to use more charged language
overall, where Democratic presidents tend to use more neutral language.
Here is an example of negative language use:
“To those people in the huts and villages of half the globe struggling to break the
bonds of mass misery...Finally, to those nations who would make themselves our
adversary, we offer not a pledge but a request: that both sides begin anew the
quest for peace, before the dark powers of destruction unleashed by
science engulf all humanity in planned or accidental self-destruction.”
- John F. Kennedy, Inaugural Address, 1961
Compared to a positive example:
“In the light of this equality, we know that the virtues most cherished by free
people — love of truth, pride of work, devotion to country — all are treasures
equally precious in the lives of the most humble and of the most exalted. The
men who mine coal and fire furnaces, and balance ledgers, and turn lathes, and
pick cotton, and heal the sick and plant corn — all serve as proudly and as
profitably for America as the statesmen who draft treaties and the legislators who
enact laws.”
- Dwight Eisenhower, 1st Inaugural Address, 1953
We also found that almost every single president used more positive language in
his second term address – the same happened with increased smiling in second
term speeches.
Presidents definitely feel more optimistic going into their second term—at least
that is how they come across.
#10: “I” Language vs. “We” Language Which presidents use more I, me and my. Which presidents use more we, our,
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President Lyndon B. Johnson used the most “I” language in his inaugural
address, while President Obama used the least.
President Jimmy Carter used the most “we” language in his inaugural
address, while President Harry S. Truman used the least.
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Republican presidents use 18.0% more “I” language than Democratic
presidents during their inaugural addresses.
Republican presidents use 6.3% less “we” language than Democratic
presidents during their inaugural addresses.
This again points to the idea that Republicans in general use more
emotionally charged language, where Democrats tend to use neutral
distancing language.
And example of high personal pronoun use:
“For more than 30 years that I have served this nation I have believed that this
injustice to our people, this waste of our resources, was our real enemy. For 30
years or more, with the resources I have had, I have vigilantly fought against it. I
have learned and I know that it will not surrender easily.”
-Lyndon B. Johnson, Inaugural Address, 1965
And example of high 3rd person pronoun use:
“We cannot dwell upon remembered glory. We cannot afford to drift. We reject
the prospect of failure or mediocrity or an inferior quality of life for any person.
Our Government must at the same time be both competent and compassionate.
We have already found a high degree of personal liberty, and we are now
struggling to enhance equality of opportunity. Our commitment to human rights
must be absolute, our laws fair, our national beauty preserved.”
-Jimmy Carter, Inaugural Address, 1977
#11: Storytelling
Storytelling can be a very persuasive way of speaking—typically the antithesis of
using logic or data. How did the presidents compare?
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President Lyndon B. Johnson used the most storytelling language in his
inaugural addresses, while President Harry S. Truman used the least.
Remember Harry S. Truman also used the most logic—data and statistics.
Clearly, he did this in lieu of stories.
Republican presidents use only 1.5% less storytelling language than
Democratic presidents during their inaugural addresses.
A storytelling example:
“For every generation there is a destiny. For some, history decides. For this
generation the choice must be our own. Even now, a rocket moves toward Mars.
It reminds us that the world will not be the same for our children, or even for
ourselves in a short span of years. The next man to stand here will look out on a
scene that is different from our own.”
- Lyndon B. Johnson, Inaugural Address, 1965
#12: Trustworthy Language
Quantified Communications defines trustworthy language as “The linguistic
patterns in a speech or written document that are proven to inspire audiences to
trust the communicator.” They have found that the language characteristics that
can help speakers gain trust include insights behind stated goals, directness of
language, demonstrated accountability, and a balanced emotional tone.
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President Jimmy Carter used the most trustworthy language in his
inaugural addresses, while President Harry S. Truman used the least.
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Republican presidents use 3.0% less trustworthy language than
Democratic presidents during their inaugural addresses.
An example of trustworthy language:
“I have no new dream to set forth today, but rather urge a fresh faith in the old
dream. [...] You have given me a great responsibility — to stay close to you, to be
worthy of you, and to exemplify what you are. Let us create together a new
national spirit of unity and trust. Your strength can compensate for my weakness,
and your wisdom can help to minimize my mistakes.”
- Jimmy Carter, Inaugural Address, 1977
#13: Clarity
A speakers’ clarity is how easy it is to follow and understand their content.
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President Bush, Sr. used the clearest language in his inaugural address,
while President Harry S. Truman used the least.
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Republican presidents use 9.2% clearer language than Democratic
presidents during their inaugural addresses.
An example of clear language comes from President Bush Sr.
“We know what works: Freedom works. We know what's right: Freedom is right.
We know how to secure a more just and prosperous life for man on Earth:
through free markets, free speech, free elections, and the exercise of free will
unhampered by the state.”
- George H.W. Bush, Inaugural Address, 1989
Summary:
It is clear that there are patterns between the parties—Republicans tend to use
more emotional language, more stories and intense words (both positive and
negative). Democrats love data and logic—they are more likely to use neutral
language.
Our most nonverbally expressive presidents have also been our more recent
ones--Donald Trump and Barack Obama smiled and used the most hand
gestures.
Some findings surprised us, especially presidents who used more negative
language and data.
Our next steps will be to look at any correlations between starting approval rating
and inaugural address patterns. Let’s see what we find next!
Researchers:
Vanessa Van Edwards is a behavioral investigator and published author. She
figures out the science of what makes people tick at her human behavior
research lab, the Science of People. As a geeky, modern-day Dale Carnegie, her
innovative work has been featured on NPR, Business Week and CNN.
Quantified Communications is our analytics partner. The QC platform, built on
years of scientific communication research, uses a combination of natural
language processing, automated vocal analysis, and insights from a panel of
Ph.D.-level communication experts to help the leaders across the globe measure
and improve their communication. QC’s work has been featured on WSJ,
Business Insider, Forbes, and the TED mainstage.
Citations:
ihttp://www.apa.org/monitor/nov04/presidential-personality.aspx
iiBull,Peter.Bodymovementandinterpersonalcommunication.JohnWiley&Sons
Inc.,1983.
iiihttp://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08351810802028662
ivhttp://news.ubc.ca/2008/08/11/ubc-study-of-olympic-athletes-shows-thatpride-and-shame-are-universal-expressions/
vGreatnessintheWhiteHouse:RatingthePresidents,WashingtonthroughCarter,"
(PennsylvaniaStateUniversityPress,1988).
vihttp://www.apa.org/monitor/nov04/presidential-personality.aspx